We went 5 for 6 on our fight winners for the UFC Vegas 113 main card at the APEX in Las Vegas. While we correctly identified the victors in five of six main card bouts, we hit the exact method of victory three times!
Our lone miss came in the Almeida-Kuniev bout, where we backed the wrong fighter entirely. Let’s break down what we got right, what we got wrong, and what actually unfolded inside the Octagon as we analyze each prediction with complete transparency.
Mario Bautista by Unanimous Decision
What Actually Happened: Bautista won as predicted, but he finished Oliveira via second-round submission rather than going the distance. He dominated his Brazilian opponent from the outset, leaning on his experience and diverse skill set to thoroughly outclass the Dana White’s Contender Series alum.
Late in the second round, Bautista worked to a mounted crucifix, battering Oliveira before transitioning to the back out of a scramble and quickly locking in the fight-ending rear-naked choke at 4:46 of round 2.
Why We Predicted a Decision: We anticipated this would be a 25-minute technical showcase where Bautista’s superior striking volume, accuracy, and five-round experience would accumulate points across the championship rounds. Our prediction focused on Bautista controlling with sustained volume and his switch-stance versatility while Oliveira’s defensive metrics kept rounds competitive.
We correctly identified Bautista as the superior fighter with more diverse skills, but we underestimated his ability to capitalize on openings and secure a finish. While we nailed the winner and the dominance, we gave Oliveira too much credit for his defensive grappling to survive all five rounds.
Kyoji Horiguchi by Unanimous Decision
What Actually Happened: This one played out exactly as we predicted. Horiguchi made it two straight wins over ranked opponents, defeating the returning Amir Albazi via unanimous decision with scorecards of 30-27, 30-27, and 29-28. This was right in line with our prediction.
The 35 year old standout flashed his signature quick and darting style, closing the distance swiftly to land while avoiding significant return fire. He cut and wobbled Albazi in the second round and poured it on in the third, stinging him once more and piling up damage on the way to running away with the contest. Now unbeaten in 5 straight bouts, the ‘Karate Kid’ is once again a title contender.
Why We Predicted It: Our confidence stemmed from Horiguchi’s superior striking volume, accuracy, and three-round pace. We correctly identified that he would control the center of the octagon, win the jab and kick exchanges, and force Albazi to shoot from distance. We anticipated Horiguchi’s superior takedown defense would neutralize wrestling threats while returning the fight to striking range where he dominates.
The prediction of 30-27 or 29-28 scorecards reflected our belief that Horiguchi’s effective striking and octagon control would prove decisive, and that’s precisely what happened. This was one of our cleanest predictions. Both the winner and method of victory hit the mark perfectly.
Jailton Almeida by Unanimous Decision
What Actually Happened: This was our only complete miss. Kuniev defeated Almeida via unanimous decision with scorecards of 30-27, 30-27, and 29-28, completely flipping our prediction. The heavyweight matchup turned into an odd tussle with prolonged periods of inactivity along the fence and single-shot striking in space.
As both men prefer to grapple, there were stretches where they battled for position, but neither was able to do much in those entanglements. When they did throw shots, Kuniev was the more fluid and successful of the two, scoring with short knees and uppercuts inside and slightly more volume in space.
Why We Predicted Almeida: Our confidence in Almeida stemmed from his relentless grappling pressure, control time, and 66% striking accuracy setting up takedown attempts. Our belief was that his volume approach would eventually overwhelm even Kuniev’s elite 90% takedown defense.
We anticipated Almeida would land clean combinations before shooting for takedowns and that Kuniev’s lower output and defensive posture would cost him on the scorecards. However, we completely underestimated Kuniev’s ability to neutralize Almeida’s grappling entirely and be more effective in the striking exchanges. We failed to account for Almeida’s sudden aversion to attacking that has emerged over the last year.
Michal Oleksiejczuk by KO/TKO
What Actually Happened: Oleksiejczuk won as predicted via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28), though he didn’t secure the knockout we envisioned. The Polish fighter and Marc-Andre Barriault engaged in an entertaining slugfest, splitting the opening two rounds and leaving the outcome hanging on the final round.
Oleksiejczuk was technical and smooth in the first round, while Barriault responded in the second by deploying his usual close-quarters style. In the third, they each leaned on their respective styles and had moments of success, leaving the outcome in the hands of the judges. All three officials scored the fight in favor of Oleksiejczuk, who earned his third consecutive victory and 10th career UFC win.
Why We Predicted KO/TKO: We saw Oleksiejczuk’s power striking, superior defensive metrics, and recent finishing streak as overwhelming advantages against Barriault’s catastrophic 50% striking defense. We envisioned him capitalizing on defensive lapses with southpaw power shots and landing a devastating finish within the first two rounds.
While we correctly identified Oleksiejczuk as the superior striker who would win, we overestimated his ability to secure the finish and underestimated Barriault’s durability and ability to make it competitive in close quarters. The fight turned into more of a technical battle and brawl than the one-sided beatdown we anticipated, but Oleksiejczuk still got his hand raised.
Farid Basharat by Unanimous Decision
What Actually Happened: Basharat won via split decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) against Jean Matsumoto in a hard-fought battle, almost exactly as we predicted in terms of the winner and method. The 28 year old showed all facets of his game, cutting Matsumoto with an elbow straight out of the gates while mixing in his usual blend of technical striking and timely wrestling.
Matsumoto had moments, landing quality shots and chasing grappling exchanges of his own, but Basharat found shots of his own throughout. The fight highlighted the scoring criteria, as Basharat did the appreciable damage and came out on the happy side of the split decision. That’s now six straight wins in the UFC and 15 consecutive victories overall for the ascending prospect.
Why We Predicted It: Our confidence stemmed from Basharat’s technical superiority, defensive excellence, and well-rounded skill set. We correctly identified that he would control the pace with accurate striking, using his superior accuracy to land clean shots while his striking defense minimized damage.
We anticipated Matsumoto might steal a round with overwhelming volume and pressure, which is exactly what happened. Oue prediction was that the judges would favor Basharat’s cleaner striking, grappling control, and octagon generalship across the majority of rounds. While it came down to a split decision rather than the 30-27 or 29-28 sweep we envisioned, we nailed both the winner and the method of victory.
Dustin Jacoby by KO/TKO
What Actually Happened: Jacoby won exactly as we predicted, collecting his third straight stoppage victory via second-round TKO at 1:42. This was a tale of two fights and two styles, with Jacoby dominating in space while Walker had success in grappling interactions in the opening round, twice putting the veteran to the canvas.
But at the start of the second, Jacoby came out firing and caught Walker, rocking him and eventually chasing down the finish. Originally scheduled to compete at UFC 325, this was a strong performance by Jacoby who added to his winning streak and continued his push towards the Top 15.
Why We Predicted It: We saw Jacoby’s superior striking volume, experience, and 62% takedown defense as decisive advantages against Walker’s defensive vulnerabilities. We envisioned competitive early exchanges with Walker attempting takedowns to slow the pace, but predicted Jacoby’s relentless pressure and striking defense would allow him to bank rounds with volume.
We correctly anticipated that accumulated damage from Jacoby’s volume would begin showing in round 2, leading to him catching Walker with a combination and finishing with ground-and-pound. Our prediction of the round and method was spot-on. This was one of our most accurate calls of the night, demonstrating Jacoby’s veteran savvy exactly as we forecasted.
Final Tally
5 winners correct out of 6, with 3 methods of victory hitting the mark. This was one of our strongest prediction performances in recent memory. Our lone miss on Almeida-Kuniev serves as a reminder that even heavily-favored grapplers can have off nights, especially when they’ve shown recent signs of declining output. Overall, a successful night of analysis in a sport where one punch, one kick or one unexpected trip is the difference between winning or losing. That is the beauty of MMA!
(Image Credit: Ron Chenoy – Imagn Images)
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I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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