UFC Vegas 114’s prelim card features a lightweight clash between Belgian striker Bolaji Oki and undefeated Brazilian submission specialist Manoel Sousa at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Sousa opens as a -275 favorite with Oki at +220 as the underdog. This lightweight prelim sets up as a classic striker vs submission specialist matchup. Here’s how we’re betting UFC Vegas 114: Oki vs Sousa, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC Vegas 114
Weight class: UFC Lightweight bout
Fight length: 3-round prelim fight
Date & time: March 14, 2026 – Prelims 07:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~08:10 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: March 13, 2026 – 10:00 PM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Oki vs Sousa.
Tale of the Tape
Bolaji Oki
Manoel Sousa
Record
10-3-0
13-1-0
Age
29
28
Height
5’10”
5’9″
Reach
73″
70″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
6.59
3.23
Striking Accuracy
44%
58%
Strikes Absorbed
5.15
1.31
Striking Defense
61%
55%
Takedowns
1.01
0.00
Takedown Accuracy
60%
0%
Takedown Defense
66%
62%
Submission Avg.
0.0
2.3
Sousa’s 1.31 strikes absorbed per minute is the most striking defensive number in this fight, he simply does not get hit. His 58% striking accuracy combined with a 2.3 submission average makes him dangerous in every phase once the fight gets close. Oki counters with a massive volume advantage at 6.59 per minute and a 3-inch reach edge.
Fighter Breakdown – Bolaji Oki Analysis
Oki comes in with a 10-3-0 record as one of the more exciting strikers on the prelim circuit. The 29 year old Belgian brings legitimate takedown ability to complement his striking.
Strengths: Elite striking volume at 6.59 significant strikes per minute. Strong 61% striking defense. Solid takedown accuracy at 60% with a 1.01 average gives him a wrestling option Sousa lacks entirely. Three-inch reach advantage at 73″. Active and entertaining fighter who creates constant action.
Weaknesses: Absorbs 5.15 significant strikes per minute. Poor 44% striking accuracy means he throws a lot but lands less than half. Zero submission offense. Three losses on his record show vulnerability when opponents find a game plan. No submission defense tested against elite-level ground work.
Betting Angles: Oki’s +240 moneyline offers genuine upset value if his volume overwhelms Sousa on the feet before a takedown or submission lands. Oki by KO/TKO (+550) is worth a small look given his output.
Sousa comes in with a pristine 13-1-0 record and a statistical profile that demands attention. The 28 year old Brazilian is a fighter with serious finishing ability on the mat.
Strengths: Absorbs only 1.31 strikes per minute at 55% defense. Elite 58% striking accuracy means nearly every clean shot he lands matters. Dominant 2.3 submission average gives him multiple finishing paths. Near-perfect 13-1 record with just one blemish. 3 year age advantage is negligible but youth is on his side.
Weaknesses: Zero takedown offense on record. Only 3.23 strikes per minute means he will be significantly outworked in pure volume exchanges. 62% takedown defense leaves him somewhat exposed to Oki’s 60% accurate wrestling. His path to the ground is unconventional without traditional shot-taking in his game.
Betting Angles: Sousa by KO/TKO (+195) is our primary play. Sousa by Decision (+210) offers strong value if he controls the action without a finish.
Oki absorbs 5.15 significant strikes per minute, and Sousa lands at 58% accuracy with genuine power. While Sousa’s volume is low, his shots are clean and precise.His 1.31 strikes absorbed per minute against Oki’s 44% accuracy suggests Oki will throw plenty but land relatively little.
The 60% accurate takedown threat from Oki keeps Sousa honest, but his defensive movement and reaction speed should neutralize the wrestling before the submission game even becomes relevant. At +195 (implied 33.9%), we project this outcome closer to 42-45%, making it the clearest value on the board.
Value Prop: Fight Does NOT Go Distance (-166)
Both fighters carry genuine finishing ability; Oki through volume and Sousa through accuracy and submissions. Sousa’s 2.3 submission average combined with Oki’s complete absence of ground game creates a perpetual danger whenever exchanges get close. Oki’s high pace and willingness to engage means the fight will not be slow or tactical.
At -166 (implied 62.4%), this is solid value for a matchup where both stylistic paths lead to a stoppage rather than a decision.
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Small stake only. Oki’s 6.59 strikes per minute is relentless and even Sousa’s elite defensive movement can be overwhelmed by sheer volume across fifteen minutes. If Oki clips Sousa early before the Brazilian settles into his rhythm, a stunning upset finish is possible. At +550 (implied 15.4%), the payout justifies a small flier on the chaos scenario. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official Pick: Manoel Sousa by KO/TKO
We are backing Sousa to use his accuracy and finishing instincts to secure a stoppage. Oki will come out throwing at his typical pace, creating early activity and keeping Sousa on the back foot. But Sousa’s 58% accuracy means every counter he lands is clean, and Oki’s 5.15 strikes absorbed per minute baseline will be challenged severely.
Sousa’s defensive movement keeps him relatively clean while he waits for the right moment. Oki’s volume eventually creates an opening in his own guard, and Sousa’s precise counter punching takes over. With no submission game to fall back on if the striking goes wrong, Oki has no safety net when the fight turns against him.
Sousa moves to 14-1 and announces himself as a legitimate lightweight contender worth watching, while Oki’s limitations against elite opposition are exposed once again.
How to Bet UFC Vegas 114: Tips for This Card
Card Tips:
Sousa’s 1.31 strikes absorbed per minute is the best defensive number among all prelim fighters.
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos headlines the main card in a 5-round featherweight main event.
Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund features the most extraordinary statistical outlier of the evening in Asplund’s 19.93 strikes per minute.
UFC Vegas 114 Fight Card
Main Card (10:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos — Featherweight bout, 5 rounds
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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