UFC Vegas 114’s main card features a featherweight clash between undefeated Australian prospect Marwan Rahiki and English veteran Harry Hardwick. This 3 round bout pits the 23 year old with a perfect record against the switch-stance fighter at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Rahiki opens as a -275 favorite, with Hardwick at +200. This featherweight matchup is a showcase opportunity for one of the more intriguing undefeated prospects on the UFC roster, while Hardwick looks to pull off the upset and salvage his UFC standing.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC Vegas 114: Rahiki vs Hardwick, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC Vegas 114
Weight class: UFC Featherweight bout
Fight length: 3-round main card fight
Date & time: March 14, 2026 – Main card 10:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~11:00 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: March 12, 2026 – 01:30 PM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Rahiki vs Hardwick.
Tale Of The Tape
Marwan Rahiki
Harry Hardwick
Record
7-0-0
13-4-1
Age
23
31
Height
5’8″
5’8″
Reach
72″
71″
Stance
Orthodox
Switch
Sig. Strikes Landed
5.96
2.39
Striking Accuracy
47%
34%
Strikes Absorbed
6.10
7.16
Striking Defense
56%
40%
Takedowns
0.00
0.00
Takedown Accuracy
0%
0%
Takedown Defense
100%
0%
Submission Avg.
2.1
0.0
Rahiki holds significant advantages across striking volume, accuracy, defense and an elite 2.1 submission average. Hardwick’s 7.16 strikes absorbed per minute is alarming, and his 40% striking defense is among the worst numbers you’ll see on a main card.
Fighter Breakdown – Marwan Rahiki Analysis
Rahiki comes in with a perfect 7-0-0 record as one of the more fascinating undefeated prospects in the featherweight division. The 23-year-old Australian is a pure grappler at heart, but puts up respectable striking numbers to complement his ground game.
Strengths: Perfect 7-0 record with zero losses. Elite submission average of 2.1. Strong striking volume at 5.96 significant strikes per minute. Solid 47% striking accuracy. Perfect 100% takedown defense. 8 year youth advantage at just 23 years old with enormous upside.
Weaknesses: Absorbs 6.10 significant strikes per minute. Zero takedown attempts on record raises questions about whether his grappling translates against UFC-level resistance. Limited UFC experience at just seven fights. Hardwick’s switch stance and 18-fight experience could create early problems.
Betting Angles: Rahiki by KO/TKO (+150) is our best bet given the finishing upside at plus money. Rahiki by Submission (+800) offers a big-payout longshot given his 2.1 average if the fight hits the mat.
Hardwick comes in with a 13-4-1 record. The 31 year old Englishman is a switch-stance striker who throws with bad intentions but has significant defensive and accuracy problems that have plagued him at the UFC level.
Strengths: 18 professional fights of experience against a 23-year-old with only seven. Switch stance creates adjustment problems early in fights. Has shown durability in surviving difficult moments throughout his career.
Weaknesses: Absorbs a staggering 7.16 significant strikes per minute. Only 40% striking defense is alarming at any level. Poor striking accuracy at 34%. Zero takedown defense at 0% leaves him completely exposed on the mat against a submission specialist. No submission offense whatsoever to counter Rahiki’s grappling.
Betting Angles: Hardwick’s +200 moneyline is only worth considering as a small chaos play. His path to victory is narrow and requires an early KO before Rahiki’s grappling takes over.
Getting plus money on the favorite to finish by stoppage makes this the clearest value on the board. Rahiki’s 5.96 strikes per minute against Hardwick’s 40% striking defense creates a punishing exchange rate, and Hardwick absorbing 7.16 strikes per minute means damage accumulates rapidly.
Rahiki doesn’t need the ground game to win this fight. Hardwick’s defensive numbers are so poor that Rahiki’s striking alone should produce a stoppage. At +150 (implied 40%), we project this outcome closer to 50-55%, making this strong value at plus money.
Hardwick absorbs 7.16 significant strikes per minute and has zero takedown defense against a submission specialist. Whether Rahiki ends it on the feet or drags it to the mat, the finishing mechanisms are all pointing in one direction. Rahiki by KO/TKO or submission covers both scenarios.
At -220 (implied 68.8%), this is solid juice for what should be a near-certain stoppage given the defensive deficiencies on display.
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Small stake only. Rahiki’s 2.1 submission average is remarkable and if Hardwick’s zero takedown defense holds true, Rahiki can choose his ground game at will. A submission finish at +800 (implied 11.1%) offers excellent payout for a scenario that is more likely than the price suggests. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official Pick: Marwan Rahiki by KO/TKO
We are backing Rahiki to remain undefeated with a finish, most likely in round one or two. Hardwick will use his switch stance to create early confusion and will throw wildly looking for the upset. But Rahiki’s superior accuracy and volume should take over quickly.
The numbers leave little room for debate. Hardwick absorbs 7.16 strikes per minute at 40% defense. Rahiki is going to land clean shots early and often. Whether he elects to keep it standing or shoot for takedowns, Hardwick has no answers. His 0% takedown defense against a 2.1 submission average fighter is a nightmare matchup on paper and should prove so in practice.
This fight extends Rahiki’s unbeaten record to 8-0 and puts the featherweight division on notice. Hardwick’s chin and switch stance make him dangerous for about ninety seconds before the talent gap becomes undeniable.
How to Bet UFC Vegas 114: Tips for This Card
Card Tips:
Hardwick’s 0% takedown defense against Rahiki’s 2.1 submission average is one of the starkest mismatches on the card.
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos headlines with a 17-year age gap in a 5-round main event.
Ion Cuțelaba vs Oumar Sy offers explosive knockout potential at light heavyweight earlier on the card.
UFC Vegas 114 Fight Card
Main Card (10:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos — Featherweight bout, 5 rounds
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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