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Mar 8, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Ignacio Bahamondes (blue gloves) reacts after defeating Jalin Turner (not pictured) during UFC 313 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
Mar 8, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Ignacio Bahamondes (blue gloves) reacts after defeating Jalin Turner (not pictured) during UFC 313 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
UFC Seattle’s prelim card features a lightweight clash between Chilean knockout artist Ignacio Bahamondes and Azerbaijani veteran Tofiq Musayev. This 3-round prelim bout pits one of the most dangerous strikers on the undercard against a seasoned 22-fight professional at 155 lbs at the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, United States.
Bahamondes opens as a -300 favorite, with Musayev at +240 as the underdog. Here’s how we’re betting UFC Seattle: Bahamondes vs Musayev, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC Seattle
Weight class: UFC Lightweight bout
Fight length: 3-round prelim bout
Date & time: March 29, 2026 – Prelims start: 02:00 pm ET, walk time ~04:40 p.m. ET
Venue: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, United States
21+ and present in AZ/CO/CT/IA/IL/IN/KS/LA (permitted parishes only) /MA/MD/MI/NJ/NY/OH/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY. Minimum $10 first deposit required. Promotion Bonus will be credited to your account within 72 hours settlement of Qualifying Wager. First online real money wager only (minimum $5). Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expires in 14 days. Bonus bets and NFL Sunday Ticket code will be issued within 72 hours of bet placement. See full terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com.
Odds updated: March 26, 2026 – 06:30 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Bahamondes vs Musayev.
Tale of the Tape
Ignacio Bahamondes
Tofiq Musayev
Record
17-6-0
22-6-0
Age
28
36
Height
6’3″
5’9″
Reach
75″
69″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
6.55
0.44
Striking Accuracy
45%
33%
Strikes Absorbed
4.33
0.44
Striking Defense
56%
71%
Takedowns
0.00
0.00
Takedown Accuracy
0%
0%
Takedown Defense
75%
40%
Submission Avg.
0.4
0.0
Musayev’s striking numbers are the most unusual on the entire UFC Seattle card. A 0.44 significant strikes per minute landed and absorbed figure across a 22-fight career raises significant questions about the nature and level of his competition rather than reflecting genuine defensive brilliance. Bahamondes counters with 6.55 strikes per minute at 45% accuracy and a six-inch height and reach advantage that creates structural problems for any orthodox fighter at 155 lbs.
Fighter Breakdown – Ignacio Bahamondes Analysis
Bahamondes comes in with a 17-6-0 record as one of the most physically imposing and strike-heavy lightweights on the UFC prelim circuit. The 28 year old orthodox Chilean has built his UFC career on explosive, high-volume output from an elite physical frame that gives him structural advantages.
Strengths: Elite 6.55 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy. His 6’3″ frame and 75″ reach creates a six-inch reach advantage. Solid 56% striking defense and 75% takedown defense give him strong defensive fundamentals against a fighter who has recorded zero takedown attempts in his professional career. At 28 years old in the prime athletic window.
Weaknesses: His 4.33 strikes absorbed per minute is the higher number in this matchup, and his 0% takedown average means the fight is entirely decided on the feet. 17-6 record includes losses that have come when opponents land clean and early.
Betting Angles: Bahamondes by KO/TKO (+170) is our primary play, offering plus money on the most structurally dominant finishing path.
Musayev comes in with a 22-6-0 record as a veteran whose statistical profile is unlike any other fighter on this card. The 36-year-old orthodox has a profoundly defensive, clinch-based fighting style.
Strengths: His 71% striking defense is the superior number in this matchup. His 22-fight professional record reflects a fighter with deep experience navigating different styles. Compact 5’9″ frame gives him the kind of low center of gravity that makes him naturally difficult to move and control in the clinch.
Weaknesses: His 0.44 significant strikes per minute is the lowest offensive output number on the entire UFC Seattle card. His 40% takedown defense against a fighter with a 0.4 submission average is a secondary vulnerability. Age factor at 36 years old.
Betting Angles: Musayev by Decision (+650) is the only realistic upset path if his defensive discipline frustrates Bahomondes. His +240 moneyline is longshot territory.
Best Bets For Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev
Bahamondes’s 6.55 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy against a fighter whose entire statistical profile suggests limited ability to generate meaningful offense creates finishing conditions on the feet in virtually every round. His six-inch reach advantage from a 6’3″ frame means Musayev must close dangerous distance to engage, and every step forward is a targeting opportunity for one of the most active strikers on the prelim card.
At +170 (implied 37%), we project this outcome closer to 48-52%, making it outstanding plus-money value on the most structurally dominant finishing path.
Bahamondes’s 6.55 strikes per minute output against Musayev’s 71% striking defense creates the central tension in this matchup. But even if Musayev’s defense holds better than expected, Bahamondes’s 0.4 submission average gives him a secondary finishing path. The finish conditions exist from multiple angles regardless of which phase the fight settles into.
At -235 (implied 70.1%), this is solid value as a parlay anchor on a prelim card that has multiple finish-heavy matchups feeding into it.
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Small stake only. Bahamondes absorbs 4.33 strikes per minute and his 56% striking defense leaves a genuine window for a clean shot in any exchange where he overcommits on offense. Musayev’s 22-fight professional record suggests he has navigated dangerous opponents before, and if he lands clean during a Bahamondes combination attempt, his experience gives him the composure to follow up.
At +470 (implied 17.5%), a very small stake acknowledges the knockout ceiling that exists in any fight Bahamondes is in. Keep stakes at 0.25 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes by KO/TKO
We are backing Bahamondes to use his elite striking volume, six-inch physical advantages, and finishing instincts to stop Musayev on the feet before the championship rounds. Musayev’s defensive numbers and veteran experience will make him a more difficult assignment than the statistical mismatch suggests, but 6.55 strikes per minute from a 6’3″ orthodox striker against a 5’9″ opponent with no recorded offensive output is a combination that produces stoppages at any level of the sport.
With this win, Bahamondes moves to 18-6 with a finish that keeps him firmly in the lightweight contender conversation.
How to Watch UFC Seattle: Tips for This Card
Card Tips:
Musayev’s 0.44 strikes per minute is the most unusual statistical profile on the card.
The McKinney vs Nelson lightweight matchup on the main card features the highest submission ceiling on the entire card.
Adesanya vs Pyfer closes the card at middleweight with the most technically compelling stylistic contrast of the evening — a former two-time champion’s precision striking game against one of the most dangerous finishers in the division.
UFC Seattle Fight Card
Main Card (05:00 p.m. ET –Paramout+)
Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer — Middleweight bout, 5 rounds
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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