UFC Seattle’s prelim card features a bantamweight clash between wrestling-heavy veteran Ricky Simon and explosive knockout artist Adrian Yanez. This 3-round prelim bout pits one of the division’s most active takedown artists against a high-volume striker with elite takedown defense at 135 lbs at the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, United States.
Simon opens as a -150 favorite, with Yanez at +125 as the underdog. Here’s how we’re betting UFC Seattle: Simon vs Yanez, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC Seattle
Weight class: UFC Bantamweight bout
Fight length: 3-round prelim bout
Date & time: March 29, 2026 – Prelims start: 02:00 pm ET, walk time ~02:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, United States
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Odds updated: March 27, 2026 – 11:00 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Simon vs Yanez.
Tale of the Tape
Ricky Simon
Adrian Yanez
Record
22-7-0
17-6-0
Age
33
32
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
3.04
6.23
Striking Accuracy
43%
41%
Strikes Absorbed
3.85
5.75
Striking Defense
61%
54%
Takedowns
4.66
0.00
Takedown Accuracy
41%
0%
Takedown Defense
76%
81%
Submission Avg.
0.3
0.0
The statistical split here is sharp. Simon’s 4.66 takedown average is the most dominant wrestling number on the prelim card, while Yanez’s 81% takedown defense is the strongest defensive grappling figure in this matchup.
Fighter Breakdown – Ricky Simon Analysis
Simon comes in with a 22-7-0 record as one of the most relentless wrestling-based fighters in the bantamweight division. The 33 year old orthodox veteran has built his entire UFC career on takedowns and the kind of persistent, grinding pressure that has controlled and worn down every opponent he has faced at 135 lbs.
Strengths: Elite 4.66 takedown average at 41% accuracy. Solid 61% striking defense. His 76% takedown defense neutralizes Yanez’s 0% takedown average entirely, removing any wrestling counter Yanez might use. His 22-7 record against elite bantamweight competition reflects a fighter with deep championship-level experience.
Weaknesses: His 3.04 significant strikes per minute is the lower offensive output. His 3.85 strikes absorbed per minute against Yanez’s 6.23 strikes per minute output creates compounding damage in every round the fight stays on the feet.
Betting Angles: Simon by Decision (+125) is our primary play, offering plus money on a fighter whose wrestling volume and defensive output builds scorecards across three rounds. His -150 moneyline reflects a genuine edge but the decision price is where the structural value lives.
Yanez comes in with a 17-6-0 record as one of the most dangerous and explosive strikers in the bantamweight division. The 32 year old orthodox American has built his UFC career on high significant strikes per minute and genuine knockout power that has produced stoppages against ranked bantamweight opposition throughout his time at 135 lbs.
Strengths: Elite 6.23 significant strikes per minute. His 81% takedown defense is the strongest grappling suppression number in this bout. At 32 years old he remains in a competitive athletic window against a 33 year old opponent, and his finishing instincts at 135 lbs have been proven against UFC-level competition.
Weaknesses: His 5.75 strikes absorbed per minute is the highest number in this matchup. This is a genuine liability against Simon’s grinding takedown pressure. His 0.00 takedown average and 0% accuracy means he offers no wrestling alternative if Simon’s takedown game finds a way through his 81% takedown defense. His 17-6 record against Simon’s 22-7 reflects a meaningful experience gap at the elite bantamweight level.
Betting Angles: Yanez by KO/TKO (+350) is the most realistic upset path given his finishing power on the feet. His +125 moneyline offers genuine value if you believe his 81% takedown defense neutralizes Simon’s primary weapon and tips the fight in his favor on the scorecards.
Simon’s 4.66 takedown average at 41% accuracy against Yanez’s 81% takedown defense is the defining technical battle in this matchup. Even if Yanez suppresses a significant portion of Simon’s wrestling entries, the volume and persistence of Simon’s takedown attempts creates positional control across three rounds that disrupts Yanez’s striking rhythm and builds consistent scorecards.
At +125 (implied 44.4%), we project this outcome closer to 38-42%, making it solid plus-money value on a veteran wrestler whose entire career is built on grinding out decisions against fighters with superior striking profiles.
Simon’s 61% striking defense limits the clean, damaging shots Yanez needs to produce a stoppage on the feet. His 4.66 takedown average disrupts Yanez’s striking rhythm consistently enough to prevent the sustained output that finishes fights. Yanez’s 0.3 submission average against Simon’s 0.0 grappling offense on the mat limits Simon’s own finishing path. Three rounds between a high-volume striker and a wrestling-heavy veteran tends to produce grinding scorecards rather than stoppages.
At -165 (implied 62.3%), this is solid value on a prelim that structurally favors 15 minutes of tactical wrestling versus striking rather than a clean, uninterrupted finish from either direction.
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Small stake only. Simon absorbs 3.85 strikes per minute and his 61% striking defense leaves a genuine window for Yanez’s power in the early exchanges before Simon closes the distance and establishes his wrestling. Yanez’s 6.23 strikes per minute output means he is constantly creating those windows, and if he lands clean before Simon’s grappling takes control, his finishing power at 135 lbs has proven capable of ending fights at this level.
At +350 (implied 22.2%), a small stake acknowledges the knockout ceiling Yanez carries into every exchange on the feet. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official Pick: Ricky Simon by Decision
We are backing Simon to use his elite takedown volume, persistent wrestling pressure, and superior striking defense to grind out a decision across three rounds. Yanez will make this genuinely dangerous. His 6.23 strikes per minute output and proven knockout power give him a legitimate path to a stoppage in any round the fight stays standing long enough for his volume to accumulate.
But 4.66 takedowns per 15 minutes at 41% accuracy against a 135 lb fighter with 0% wrestling offense creates positional disruption that compounds across three rounds regardless of takedown defense percentage. Simon’s experience at the elite bantamweight level gives him the composure to keep imposing his game plan through the final horn. Simon moves to 23-7 with a decision that keeps him in the bantamweight contender conversation.
How to Watch UFC Seattle: Tips for This Card
Card Tips:
Yanez’s 81% takedown defense against Simon’s 4.66 takedown average is the defining matchup question.
The Stirling vs Lopes light heavyweight bout earlier in the prelims features the most lopsided finishing profile on the card, with an unbeaten prospect carrying elite striking volume against a fighter whose 100% takedown defense is the only meaningful path to disruption.
Adesanya vs Pyfer closes the night at middleweight in a five-round technical contest between a former two-time champion and one of the division’s most dangerous finishers.
UFC Seattle Fight Card
Main Card (05:00 p.m. ET –Paramout+)
Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer — Middleweight bout, 5 rounds
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