UFC Vegas 114’s prelim card features a women’s bantamweight clash between Brazilian jiu-jitsu legend Bia Mesquita and Mexican contender Montse Rendon. This 3-round bout pits the undefeated 34 year old submission specialist making waves in her MMA transition against the 37 year old veteran at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Mesquita opens as a -750 favorite with Rendon as a massive +525 underdog. This women’s bantamweight prelim is one of the most lopsided matchups on the card on paper.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC Vegas 114: Mesquita vs Rendon, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC Vegas 114
Weight class: UFC Women’s Bantamweight bout
Fight length: 3-round prelim fight
Date & time: March 14, 2026 – Prelims 07:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~07:00 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: March 14, 2026 – 09:00 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Mesquita vs Rendon.
Tale of the Tape
Bia Mesquita
Montse Rendon
Record
6-0-0
7-1-0
Age
34
37
Height
5’4″
5’8″
Reach
67″
68″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
4.98
3.09
Striking Accuracy
57%
28%
Strikes Absorbed
0.83
3.42
Striking Defense
73%
59%
Takedowns
4.15
2.00
Takedown Accuracy
66%
37%
Takedown Defense
0%
100%
Submission Avg.
2.1
0.3
Mesquita’s 0.83 strikes absorbed per minute and 73% striking defense are elite-level figures. Her 4.15 takedowns per fight at 66% accuracy combined with a 2.1 submission average is a devastating ground game profile. The one genuine anomaly is Mesquita’s 0% takedown defense against Rendon’s 100%.
Fighter Breakdown – Bia Mesquita Analysis
Mesquita comes in with a perfect 6-0-0 record and one of the most decorated grappling resumes in combat sports history. The 34 year old Brazilian is a multiple-time BJJ world champion.
Strengths: Elite 2.1 submission average. Outstanding 66% takedown accuracy at 4.15 attempts per fight. Extraordinary 0.83 strikes absorbed per minute with 73% striking defense. Strong 57% striking accuracy for a transitioning grappler. Perfect 6-0 record with finishing ability in multiple phases.
Weaknesses: Recorded 0% takedown defense across her UFC career. Relatively limited MMA experience at just six fights. Four-inch height disadvantage against Rendon. Questions remain about how her ground game holds up against a UFC-caliber opponent who is actively defending.
Betting Angles: Mesquita by Submission (+100) is our primary play. Mesquita by Decision (+260) is worth a small stake if Rendon’s 100% takedown defense forces a striking battle.
Rendon comes in with a 7-1-0 record as a physical bantamweight who brings a four-inch height advantage and the most intriguing defensive statistic in this matchup, a perfect 100% takedown defense.
Strengths: Perfect 100% takedown defense. Four-inch height advantage creates reach and leverage problems for the shorter Mesquita. 7-1 record shows she knows how to win at this level. 59% striking defense is respectable.
Weaknesses: Abysmal 28% striking accuracy. Absorbs 3.42 significant strikes per minute against a fighter who lands at 57% accuracy. Only 0.3 submission average means she has no meaningful ground offense if the fight reaches the mat. At 37 years old against a 34-year-old.
Betting Angles: Rendon’s +525 moneyline is a deep longshot only. Rendon by Decision (+700) represents the only realistic upset scenario.
Getting even money on the favorite to win by her primary and most dangerous method is outstanding value in any fight. Mesquita’s 2.1 submission average and 66% takedown accuracy create constant ground threats, and Rendon’s 0.3 submission average means she has virtually no offense to threaten back from the bottom.
Rendon’s 100% takedown defense is the one obstacle, but that number is built against MMA-level wrestlers, not a multiple-time BJJ world champion with 66% takedown accuracy. Mesquita’s transition game and clinch entries give her alternative paths to the ground beyond the direct shot. At +100 (implied 50%), we project this outcome closer to 55-60%, making even money exceptional value for the finishing scenario.
Mesquita’s profile screams finish. She puts up 4.98 strikes per minute at 57% accuracy against a fighter absorbing 3.42 per minute at 59% defense. If Rendon’s takedown defense somehow neutralizes the ground game for extended periods, Mesquita’s striking is accurate enough to produce a TKO. Either way, Mesquita has finishing mechanisms in every phase.
At -185 (implied 64.9%), this is solid value for what should be a conclusive stoppage victory for the favorite.
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Small stake only. Rendon’s 100% takedown defense is the one genuine wildcard in this fight. If she can keep it standing all three rounds, Mesquita’s limited MMA experience on the feet and Rendon’s height advantage could allow the Mexican to outpoint her over fifteen minutes. At +700 (implied 12.5%), a small stake is warranted purely for the structural upset scenario. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official Pick: Bia Mesquita by Submission
We are backing Mesquita to get the fight to the mat and secure a submission finish, most likely in round one or two. Rendon’s 100% takedown defense will create early resistance and Mesquita will need to work for her takedowns rather than shooting in cleanly. But a BJJ world champion with 66% takedown accuracy will find a way through and once the fight hits the mat, Rendon’s 0.3 submission average offers no answers.
Mesquita’s 0.83 strikes absorbed per minute shows she is not walking into danger on the feet while she sets up her ground game. Rendon’s 28% striking accuracy means her offensive output on the feet is largely ineffective, buying Mesquita time to find the right entry.
This fight extends Mesquita’s perfect record to 7-0 and continues her rapid rise as one of the most dangerous transitions from competitive BJJ to MMA in recent memory.
How to Bet UFC Vegas 114: Tips for This Card
Card Tips:
Mesquita’s 0.83 strikes absorbed per minute is the best defensive number among all prelim fighters on the card.
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos headlines the main card in a 5-round featherweight main event.
Rendon’s 100% takedown defense is the only statistical argument against a quick Mesquita submission finish.
UFC Vegas 114 Fight Card
Main Card (10:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos — Featherweight bout, 5 rounds
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