UFC Vegas 114’s prelim card features a middleweight clash between Hawaiian veteran Brad Tavares and American southpaw Eryk Anders. This 3-round bout pits two 38-year-old middleweights at virtually identical points in their careers.
The oddsmakers agree this is a coin flip, opening at -110 for both. This is as close to a pick’em as you will see on any UFC card. This middleweight prelim is a pure styles matchup between Tavares’s technical counter-striking and Anders’s southpaw pressure game with a modest wrestling threat.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC Vegas 114: Tavares vs Anders, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC Vegas 114
Weight class: UFC Middleweight bout
Fight length: 3-round prelim fight
Date & time: March 14, 2026 – Prelims 07:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~07:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: March 14, 2026 – 05:00 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Tavares vs Anders.
Tale of the Tape
Brad Tavares
Eryk Anders
Record
21-12-0
17-9-0 (1 NC)
Age
38
38
Height
6’1″
6’1″
Reach
74″
75″
Stance
Orthodox
Southpaw
Sig. Strikes Landed
3.42
3.51
Striking Accuracy
43%
48%
Strikes Absorbed
3.36
4.09
Striking Defense
54%
50%
Takedowns
0.73
1.75
Takedown Accuracy
26%
24%
Takedown Defense
81%
80%
Submission Avg.
0.0
0.1
The numbers are remarkably similar across the board. Tavares holds edges in striking defense and strikes absorbed, while Anders counters with better striking accuracy and more takedown volume. The one clear difference is Tavares’s 81% takedown defense against Anders’s 1.75 attempts per fight.
Fighter Breakdown – Brad Tavares Analysis
Tavares comes in with a 21-12-0 record as a long-tenured UFC middleweight who has been in the conversation at 185 lbs for over a decade. The 38-year-old Hawaiian is a technical striker who uses footwork and timing rather than volume to win rounds.
Strengths: Superior striking defense at 54%. Absorbs only 3.36 significant strikes per minute. Elite 81% takedown defense neutralizes Anders’s modest wrestling threat. Experienced pressure-handler who knows how to survive danger and respond with counters.
Weaknesses: Poor 43% striking accuracy. Low takedown accuracy at 26% limits any wrestling threat he might want to establish. Zero submission offense means he has no finishing path on the ground. Twelve losses suggest a fighter past his prime at 38. Declining finishing ability reflected in his recent fight history.
Betting Angles: Tavares by Decision (+200) is our primary play given his defensive profile and pace control. His -110 moneyline is reasonable value in a true pick’em.
Anders comes in with a 17-9-0 record (1 NC) as a physical southpaw middleweight who has always carried legitimate power in his hands. The 38-year-old is the more active wrestler in this matchup.
Strengths: Better striking accuracy at 48% against a 43% opponent. Southpaw stance creates natural angle problems for orthodox fighters like Tavares. More active takedown game at 1.75 per fight. Legitimate KO power reflected in his 10 career finishes. 80% takedown defense matches up with Tavares’s wrestling threat.
Weaknesses: Absorbs 4.09 significant strikes per minute. Only 50% striking defense against a technical counter-striker. Poor 24% takedown accuracy means his wrestling attempts rarely result in control. Nine losses on his record and one NC reflect inconsistency at the top level. No meaningful submission threat with a 0.1 average.
Betting Angles: Anders by KO/TKO (+380) offers value as a standalone finishing play if his southpaw power lands early. His -110 moneyline is identical to Tavares and reflects genuine uncertainty.
Getting plus money on a pick’em fight’s most likely outcome is the best structural value on this board. Tavares’s superior defensive numbers give him the cleaner statistical profile for accumulating rounds. His 81% takedown defense shuts down Anders’s primary alternative winning method, forcing a standing exchange where Tavares’s counter-striking and footwork shine.
This fight goes the distance. Both fighters are durable veterans at 38 with no meaningful submission offense and modest finishing ability at this stage of their careers. Tavares’s technical approach should edge the scorecards over three rounds. At +200 (implied 33.3%), we project this outcome closer to 42-45%, making it a clear value play.
Both fighters absorb strikes without going down consistently and neither has shown elite finishing power in recent bouts. Two 38-year-old middleweights in a pick’em fight with zero submission offense between them almost always goes to the scorecards.
At –150 (implied 60%), this is reasonable value for the most statistically supported outcome in the matchup.
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Small stake only. Anders’s southpaw stance creates the left hand straight that orthodox fighters historically struggle to time, and Tavares has been finished before. If Anders’s power and southpaw angles find a home in the first two rounds, a stoppage is more realistic than the price implies. At +380 (implied 20.8%), a small stake is warranted for the power upset scenario. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official Pick: Brad Tavares by Decision
We are backing Tavares to use his superior defensive profile and footwork to outwork Anders over three rounds and earn a split or majority decision. This fight will be close, but Tavares’s cleaner defensive numbers and pace control give him the edge across fifteen minutes.
Anders’s southpaw stance will create problems early and he will likely land the cleaner power shots in exchanges. But Tavares’s 54% defense and experience at managing distance will prevent significant damage from accumulating, while his counter-striking chips away at Anders’s 50% defense consistently. Anders’s takedown attempts at 24% accuracy will be largely shut down by Tavares’s 81% defense, removing his most dangerous alternative attack.
This is a gritty, unspectacular prelim fight that goes to the judges. Tavares gets the nod and keeps his UFC career alive for one more fight.
How to Bet UFC Vegas 114: Tips for This Card
Card Tips:
This is the only true pick’em on the entire card — both books opened at -110/-110, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the outcome.
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos headlines the main card in a 5-round featherweight main event.
Manoel Sousa’s 2.3 submission average makes the Oki vs Sousa prelim one of the most lopsided grappling matchups on the card.
UFC Vegas 114 Fight Card
Main Card (10:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos — Featherweight bout, 5 rounds
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