UFC Vegas 113’s main card features a bantamweight clash between Jean Matsumoto and Farid Basharat. This three round battle pits the Brazilian volume striker against the undefeated Afghan grappler at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Basharat opens as a -275 favorite, with Matsumoto at +220 as the underdog. Here’s how we’re betting UFC Vegas 113: Matsumoto vs Basharat, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC Vegas 113 – UFC Apex
Weight class: UFC Bantamweight bout
Fight length: 3-round main card bout
Date & time: Saturday, February 7, 2026 – Main card: 09:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~09:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: February 5, 2026 – 7:32 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Matsumoto vs Basharat.
Tale Of The Tape
Jean Matsumoto
Farid Basharat
Record
17-1
14-0
Age
26
28
Height
5’6″
5’8″
Reach
68″
71″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
5.43
4.05
Striking Accuracy
41%
52%
Takedowns
2.14
3.60
Takedown Defense
53%
72%
Submission Avg.
0.6
0.4
Basharat holds advantages in undefeated record, height, reach, striking accuracy, striking defense, takedown volume, takedown defense, and damage avoidance. Matsumoto counters with superior striking volume and slightly more submission attempts.
Fighter Breakdown – Jean Matsumoto Analysis
Matsumoto comes in with a 17-1 record bringing aggressive volume striking to the bantamweight division. The 26 year old Brazilian is a pressure fighter with relentless output and finishing instincts.
Strengths: Elite striking volume (5.43 per minute) overwhelms opponents. Superior submission threat (0.6 attempts). Moderate wrestling with 2.14 takedowns per fight. Youth and aggression. Pressure-based fighting style.
Betting Angles: Matsumoto’s +220 moneyline offers value only if volume overwhelms Basharat’s technical approach. Matsumoto by Decision (+330) requires outworking the undefeated fighter.
Basharat brings a perfect 14-0 record with elite technical skills and superior defensive metrics. The 28 year old Afghan is a well-rounded fighter with excellent wrestling and striking fundamentals.
Strengths: Undefeated 14-0 record demonstrates elite skill. Superior striking accuracy (52%). Exceptional striking defense (60%). Outstanding damage avoidance (2.47 absorbed per minute). Elite takedown volume (3.60 per fight). Superior takedown defense (72%). Height and reach advantages. Technical precision and fight IQ.
Weaknesses: Lower striking volume (4.05 per minute). Moderate submission threat (0.4 attempts). Relies on technical approach over aggression. Lower output could lose rounds to judges favoring activity.
Betting Angles: Basharat’s -275 moneyline offers moderate value given technical superiority. Basharat by Decision (-120) provides excellent value as most likely result.
Basharat’s technical superiority and well-rounded skillset should secure a clear decision victory over three rounds. The undefeated Afghan’s exceptional defensive metrics keep him safe from Matsumoto’s volume attacks while his superior accuracy land cleaner, more effective shots.
Basharat’s elite wrestling provides control time and scoring opportunities against Matsumoto’s poor 53% takedown defense. Even if Matsumoto’s volume creates activity, Basharat’s cleaner striking and grappling control should win rounds with judges valuing quality over quantity.
At -120 (implied 54.5%), we project Basharat wins by decision closer to 65-70% of the time, offering excellent value as the overwhelmingly most likely result.
Both fighters’ recent history and metrics strongly suggest this reaches the judges. Basharat’s exceptional defensive skills make him extremely difficult to finish. His undefeated record includes primarily decisions, demonstrating durability and survival skills.
Matsumoto’s 17-1 record shows similar durability, and while he absorbs significant damage, his aggressive style and cardio keep him competitive throughout fights. The submission threat from both fighters is minimal and inconsistent. At -330 (implied 76.7%), we project this goes the distance around 80-85% of the time.
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Small stake only. While Basharat’s submission average is modest, his superior grappling skills and 3.60 takedowns per fight create opportunities against Matsumoto’s poor 53% takedown defense. If Basharat dominates wrestling exchanges and accumulates control time, submission opportunities could emerge late when Matsumoto tires.
At +500 (implied 16.7%), this offers excellent payout for the submission path if Basharat’s grappling dominance creates late opportunities. Keep stakes at 0.25 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Farid Basharat by Unanimous Decision
We are backing Basharat to secure a clear unanimous decision victory, likely 30-27 or 29-28 on the scorecards. The undefeated Afghan’s technical superiority, defensive excellence, and well-rounded skillset should prove decisive over 15 minutes. He should control the pace with accurate striking, using his superior 52% accuracy to land clean shots while his 60% striking defense minimizes damage from Matsumoto’s volume
Matsumoto may steal a round with overwhelming volume and pressure, particularly if he can force Basharat into defensive mode and bank activity points. However, the judges should favor Basharat’s cleaner striking, grappling control, and octagon generalship across the majority of rounds.
As the fight progresses, Basharat’s technical efficiency should allow him to maintain output while Matsumoto potentially fades from the damage absorbed. The undefeated fighter should close strong, securing a clear decision and maintaining his perfect record. This victory should position Basharat for a step up in competition within the bantamweight division.
How to Bet UFC Vegas 113: Tips for This Card
Beyond the bantamweight main card bout, UFC Vegas 113 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
Basharat’s 52% accuracy vs Matsumoto’s 41% creates quality over quantity scenario. Judges at UFC Apex favor effective striking over sheer output.
Submission specialists in heavyweight are rare. Jailton Almeida’s 2.0 submission attempts per fight makes him an outlier in the division. This specialization creates value in finish markets.
Kyoji Horiguchi’s 3.64 striking output vs Amir Albazi’s 2.72 creates a clear judging advantage. Activity wins close rounds at UFC Apex without crowd influence.
UFC Vegas 113 Fight Card
Main Card (09:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira – Bantamweight bout, 5 rounds
Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
Jailton Almeida vs Rizvan Kuniev – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Marc-Andre Barriault – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jean Matsumoto vs Farid Basharat – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Dustin Jacoby vs Julius Walker – Light Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Alex Morono vs Daniil Donchenko – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Bruna Brasil vs Ketlen Souza – Women’s Strawweight bout, 3 rounds
Said Nurmagomedov vs Javid Basharat – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Wang Cong vs Eduarda Moura – Women’s Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
Muin Gafurov vs Jakub Wiklacz – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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