UFC Vegas 113’s co-main event features a flyweight clash between Amir Albazi and Kyoji Horiguchi. This three round battle pits the Iraqi grappler against the legendary Japanese striker in a pivotal matchup at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.Horiguchi opens as a massive -410 favorite, with Albazi at +290 as the underdog.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC Vegas 113: Albazi vs Horiguchi, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC Vegas 113 – UFC Apex
Weight class: UFC Flyweight bout
Fight length: 3-round co-main event
Date & time: Saturday, February 7, 2026 – Main card: 09:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~11:00 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: February 5, 2026 – 12:54 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Albazi vs Horiguchi.
Tale Of The Tape
Amir Albazi
Kyoji Horiguchi
Record
17-2
35-5 (1 NC)
Age
32
35
Height
5’5″
5’4″
Reach
68″
63″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
2.72
3.64
Striking Accuracy
34%
46%
Takedowns
1.39
1.80
Takedown Defense
50%
54%
Submission Avg.
0.5
0.1
Horiguchi holds advantages in striking volume, accuracy, striking defense, takedown volume, and takedown accuracy. Albazi counters with superior reach, slightly better takedown defense, and more submission attempts. The orthodox vs orthodox matchup creates traditional striking exchanges.
Fighter Breakdown – Amir Albazi Analysis
Albazi comes in with a 17-2 record bringing smart grappling and timing-based striking to the flyweight division. The 32 year old Iraqi is a technical fighter with methodical pacing and veteran instincts.
Strengths: Superior reach advantage (68”). Elite striking defense (61%). Effective wrestling timing with 1.39 takedowns per fight. Submission threat (0.5 attempts). Control-oriented approach. Experience against elite competition.
Weaknesses: Extremely low striking volume (2.72 per minute). Poor striking accuracy (34%). Higher damage absorption (3.71 per minute). Inconsistent takedown defense (50%). Lower offensive output makes decision wins difficult. Relies heavily on control time.
Betting Angles: Albazi’s +290 moneyline offers value only if he can implement a heavy grappling gameplan. Albazi by Decision (+500) requires banking control time without getting outstruck.
Horiguchi brings a 35-5 (1 NC) record with elite striking metrics and championship experience. The 35 year old Japanese legend is a technical striker with superior volume and accuracy.
Strengths: Superior striking volume (3.64 per minute) and striking accuracy (46%). Outstanding damage avoidance. Elite striking defense (62%). Better takedown volume (1.80) and accuracy (42%). Extensive championship experience. Pace advantage over three rounds.
Weaknesses: Significant reach disadvantage (5 inches). Age factor at 35 years old. Moderate takedown defense (54%). Limited submission threat (0.1 attempts). Vulnerability to elite grapplers.
Betting Angles: Horiguchi’s -410 moneyline offers minimal value despite clear advantages. Horiguchi by Decision (-120) provides excellent value given volume advantage and Albazi’s low finishing rate. Fight goes the distance (-225) strongly favored by metrics.
This three round co-main event should see Horiguchi control the pace and volume to secure a clear decision. Horiguchi’s superior striking volume and accuracy create a clear path to winning rounds on the scorecards. His exceptional defensive metrics keep him safe from Albazi’s limited offensive output.
At -120 (implied 54.5%), we project Horiguchi wins by decision closer to 60-65% of the time, offering solid value as the most likely result.
Both fighters’ metrics strongly suggest this fight reaches the judges. Horiguchi’s exceptional defensive skills make him extremely difficult to finish. His limited finishing ability against Albazi’s solid 61% striking defense suggests mutual survival.
Albazi has never been finished in the UFC and brings a methodical, control-oriented approach that prioritizes safety over aggression. His low volume and limited knockout power create minimal finishing threat against Horiguchi’s defensive excellence. At -225 (implied 69.2%), we project this goes the distance around 75-80%, offering moderate value in a relatively safe bet.
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Small stake only. While Horiguchi’s submission average is minimal (0.1), his recent UFC victory over Tagir Ulanbekov came via submission, demonstrating he can threaten late when opponents are worn down. If Albazi overcommits to wrestling attempts and gasses from the pace, Horiguchi’s superior grappling accuracy could create scrambles leading to submission opportunities.
At +550 (implied 15.4%), this offers excellent payout for the upset finish path if Horiguchi catches Albazi late. Keep stakes at 0.25 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Kyoji Horiguchi by Unanimous Decision
We are backing Horiguchi to secure a clear unanimous decision victory, likely 30-27 or 29-28 on the scorecards. The Japanese legend’s superior striking volume, accuracy, and three-round pace should prove decisive over 15 minutes.
Horiguchi should control the center of the octagon, win the jab and kick exchanges, and force Albazi to shoot from distance. When Albazi commits to wrestling, Horiguchi’s superior takedown defense and reversals should neutralize the threat while returning the fight to striking range where he dominates.
Albazi may steal a round with extended control time if he can get Horiguchi to the fence and hold position, but the judges should favor Horiguchi’s effective striking and octagon control across the majority of rounds. This victory should position Horiguchi in a good spot and in talks for the title eliminator. for a potential flyweight title eliminator bout.
How to Bet UFC Vegas 113: Tips for This Card
Beyond the flyweight co-main event, UFC Vegas 113 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
Horiguchi’s 3.64 striking output vs Albazi’s 2.72 creates a clear judging advantage. Activity wins close rounds at UFC Apex without crowd influence.
Mario Bautista’s volume approach becomes more effective over 25 minutes. Championship rounds favor high-output fighters.
Grappling exchanges favor accuracy over volume. Horiguchi’s 42% takedown accuracy vs Albazi’s 32% suggests the Japanese veteran wins scrambles and reversals even if Albazi initiates wrestling.
UFC Vegas 113 Fight Card
Main Card (09:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira – Bantamweight bout, 5 rounds
Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
Jailton Almeida vs Rizvan Kuniev – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Marc-Andre Barriault – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jean Matsumoto vs Farid Basharat – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Dustin Jacoby vs Julius Walker – Light Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Alex Morono vs Daniil Donchenko – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Bruna Brasil vs Ketlen Souza – Women’s Strawweight bout, 3 rounds
Said Nurmagomedov vs Javid Basharat – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Wang Cong vs Eduarda Moura – Women’s Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
Muin Gafurov vs Jakub Wiklacz – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
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