We went 4 for 5 on our fight winners for the UFC 325 main card. While we correctly identified the victors in four of five main card bouts, we only nailed the exact method of victory once. The other three correct picks saw different finishing methods than we anticipated.
Our lone complete miss came in the Fiziev-Ruffy bout, where we backed the wrong fighter. Let’s break down what we got right, what we got wrong, and what actually unfolded inside the Octagon at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney as we analyze each prediction with complete transparency.
Alexander Volkanovski by Unanimous Decision
What Actually Happened: This one played out almost exactly as we predicted. Volkanovski showcased his championship-level fight IQ and relentless pace to win a clear unanimous decision in front of his Australian home crowd. The scorecards came in at 49-46, 49-46, and 50-45, right in line with our prediction of 49-46 or 48-47.
Volk used his footwork and elite fundamentals to constantly intercept Lopes, landing the cleaner, heavier shots throughout. While Lopes had his moments, including dropping the champion with a short right hook in the third round and chasing an armbar late, he couldn’t close the gap often enough. With this win, Volkanovski tied Jose Aldo with his eighth UFC featherweight title fight victory.
Why We Predicted It: Our confidence stemmed from Volkanovski’s superior cardio, striking volume, and ability to maintain pressure for five full rounds. We correctly identified that his experience and fight IQ would overcome Lopes’ reach and improved submission game.
The prediction of a 49-46 or 48-47 scorecard reflected our belief that Volk’s pressure would accumulate points across the championship rounds, and that’s precisely what happened. This was our cleanest prediction of the night. Both the winner and method of victory hit the mark perfectly.
Benoit Saint-Denis by Unanimous Decision
What Actually Happened: Saint-Denis won as predicted, but he finished Hooker via round 2 TKO rather than going the distance. The French fighter maintained his 100% finishing rate and collected his fourth straight stoppage win.
While Hooker started well with front kicks to the midsection, once Saint-Denis brought the fight to the canvas, the momentum shifted completely. After finding success in the back half of the first round, Saint-Denis dominated the second, hammering Hooker from top position while hunting for submissions, eventually forcing the stoppage with a torrent of unanswered blows from mount at 4:45 of round 2.
Why We Predicted a Decision: We anticipated Hooker’s 77% takedown defense and veteran durability would keep him competitive enough to hear the final bell. Our prediction focused on Saint-Denis winning through cumulative pressure and control time over three rounds rather than a finish.
We underestimated just how effective Saint-Denis’ volume and ground-and-pound would be in breaking down Hooker’s defenses once the fight hit the mat. While we correctly identified the winner and the tools he’d use (pressure, striking volume, relentless pace, takedowns), we gave Hooker too much credit for being able to survive the onslaught. Saint-Denis proved even more dominant than our conservative prediction suggested.
Rafael Fiziev by Unanimous Decision
What Actually Happened: This was our only complete miss. We picked the wrong winner, but Ruffy also secured a spectacular second-round TKO rather than the decision we envisioned. After allowing Fiziev to dictate terms in the first round, Ruffy found his timing shortly after the midway point of the second, driving a bolt of a right hand down the middle that put Fiziev on roller skates.
Ruffy never allowed him to recover, staying on him and pounding out the finish at 4:30 of round 2. This was a massive bounce-back win for Ruffy following a lopsided loss to Benoit Saint-Denis last September in Paris.
Why We Predicted Fiziev: Our confidence in Fiziev stemmed from his elite Muay Thai credentials, championship-level experience, superior striking volume and his chin . We believed his technical diversity and leg kick game would accumulate enough damage to overcome Ruffy’s physical advantages over three rounds.
We completely underestimated Ruffy’s power and his ability to time Fiziev’s entries. The Brazilian’s recent training camp with Alexander Volkanovski and the City Kickboxing crew clearly elevated his game to another level. In hindsight, we overvalued Fiziev’s experience while failing to account for Ruffy’s finishing ability and the improvements he had made following his loss to Saint-Denis.
Tallison Teixeira by TKO
What Actually Happened: Teixeira won as we predicted, but took Tuivasa the distance on identical 29-28 scorecards rather than securing the second-round TKO we envisioned. The towering Brazilian controlled the first two rounds by putting Tuivasa on the canvas and landing short shots while muting any potential offense from the powerful Australian.
In the third round, ‘Bam Bam’ was the fresher of the two and tried to chase down a finish, but Teixeira survived to the horn. The first two rounds proved enough to secure the victory, much to the dismay of the Sydney crowd.
Why We Predicted a Second-Round TKO: We saw Teixeira’s 83 inch reach and superior striking metrics as overwhelming advantages against Tuivasa coming off 5 finishes. We envisioned the accumulated damage forcing a stoppage. What we didn’t account for was Teixeira taking a more measured, control-oriented approach rather than hunting for the finish.
While we correctly identified that Teixeira’s physical advantages and wrestling would control the fight, we overestimated his killer instinct and underestimated Tuivasa’s durability and late fight surge. After going just 35 seconds in each of his first two UFC appearances, this marathon fight showed a different dimension of Teixeira’s game.
Quillan Salkilld by KO/TKO
What Actually Happened: Salkilld won as predicted, but finished Mullarkey much faster and via a different method than we anticipated. It was a brutal first-round face crank at 3:02 rather than a ground-and-pound TKO.
The Dana White’s Contender Series alum showcased his complete grappling prowess. He took Mullarkey down early, scrambling back to his feet when the veteran returned the favor, then working to the back off a tremendous throw midway through the first. From there, Salkilld quickly attacked the finish, torquing Mullarkey’s neck until he tapped.
Why We Predicted TKO via Ground-and-Pound: We correctly identified Salkilld’s superior wrestling and grappling would be the key to victory, and we accurately predicted he would secure takedowns and establish dominant control. However, we focused entirely on his ground-and-pound finishing ability rather than his submission skills.
In reality, Salkilld’s complete grappling game allowed him to transition seamlessly from control to a fight-ending submission far earlier than anticipated. We were right about the path to victory (takedowns and ground dominance) but wrong about the specific finishing technique and timing. That’s now four starts, four wins, and three finishes for the 26-year-old Perth prospect.
Final Tally
4 winners correct out of 5, with only 1 method of victory hitting the mark. Not bad for picking winners, but plenty of room for improvement on predicting how these fights would actually end. The key lesson? Even when you correctly identify the superior fighter and their path to victory, the exact finishing sequence remains one of MMA’s beautiful uncertainties. One punch, one kick or one unexpected trip is the difference between winning or losing. That is the beauty of MMA!
(Image Credit: Sam Navarro – Imagn Images)
mma
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
Read more
mma