UFC 325’s main card features an explosive lightweight striker showdown between Rafael Fiziev and Mauricio Ruffy. This high-level striking battle pits the veteran Muay Thai specialist against the surging Brazilian knockout artist in what promises to be a technical stand-up war. The bout takes place at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.
Fiziev brings elite striking credentials and experience against top competition, while Ruffy enters with momentum and devastating finishing ability. Ruffy opens as a slight -125 favorite, with Fiziev at +105 as a narrow underdog.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC 325: Fiziev vs Ruffy, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC 325 – Qudos Bank Arena
Weight class: UFC Lightweight bout
Fight length: 3-round main card bout
Date & time: Saturday, January 31, 2026 – Main card 09:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~10:00 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: January 29, 2026 – 12:10 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Fiziev vs Ruffy.
Tale Of The Tape
Rafael Fiziev
Mauricio Ruffy
Record
13-4
12-2
Age
32
28
Height
5’8″
5’11”
Reach
71″
75″
Stance
Switch
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
4.77
3.84
Striking Accuracy
52%
57%
Takedowns
0.89
0.00
Takedown Defense
90%
84%
Submission Avg.
0.0
0.0
Ruffy holds massive physical advantages with 3 inches in height and 4 inches in reach, plus superior striking accuracy and striking defense. Fiziev counters with higher striking volume, elite takedown defense, and championship-level experience. The switch-stance vs orthodox matchup creates angles for Fiziev’s legendary leg kicks, while Ruffy’s length creates problems at range.
Fighter Breakdown – Rafael Fiziev Analysis
Fiziev comes in with a 13-4 record including high-level wins over Rafael dos Anjos and Brad Riddell. The 32 year old is one of the UFC’s most technical strikers with an elite Muay Thai background from Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand.
Strengths: Elite-level Muay Thai striking with devastating leg kicks. Switch stance creates unpredictable angles and setups. Higher striking volume (4.77 per minute) controls pace. Excellent takedown defense (90%) keeps fights standing. Experience against elite competition (Justin Gaethje, Rafael dos Anjos). Technical striking IQ and combinations. Dangerous counter-striker who punishes mistakes. Strong fight IQ and adaptability.
Weaknesses: Age 32 with recent injuries affecting activity. Significant height (3 inches) and reach (4 inches) disadvantage. Lower striking accuracy and striking defense at 50% leaves openings for counters. Absorbs 4.77 significant strikes per minute matches output, indicating willingness to trade.
Betting Angles: Fiziev’s +105 moneyline offers value for his technical superiority. Fiziev by Decision (+210) is our best bet given both fighters’ durability and technical approach. Fight goes the distance (-150) appeals given striking-focused matchup and defensive awareness.
Ruffy brings a 12-2 record with recent UFC victories showcasing his finishing ability and striking evolution. The 28 year old Brazilian is a rising lightweight prospect with knockout power and improving technical skills.
Strengths: Massive physical advantages with 3 inch height and 4 inch reach edge. Superior striking accuracy (57%) with efficient shot selection. Excellent striking defense (60%) limits damage absorbed. Knockout power and finishing ability. Strong takedown defense (84%) keeps fights in his domain. Improving technical skills and fight IQ.
Weaknesses: Lower striking volume (3.84 per minute) suggests counter-striking approach. Limited experience against elite competition. Only 4 UFC fights shows lack of octagon time. Never attempted a takedown, making him one-dimensional. No submission threat whatsoever. Faces major step up in competition against world-class striker. Could struggle with Fiziev’s switch stance and leg kicks.
Betting Angles: Ruffy’s -125 moneyline offers minimal value despite physical advantages. Ruffy by Decision (+230) provides value if his length controls range for three rounds. Ruffy by KO/TKO (+320) represents a longshot value for his finishing power.
Fiziev’s technical superiority should prove decisive over three rounds despite Ruffy’s physical advantages. The Azerbaijani’s elite Muay Thai credentials, higher striking volume and experience against top competition give him the tools to outpoint Ruffy. While Ruffy’s 4 inch reach advantage creates problems, Fiziev’s switch stance and legendary leg kicks will attack the lead leg and slow Ruffy’s movement.
Both fighters have strong chins and defensive awareness, making a finish unlikely. At +210 (implied 32.3%), we project this outcome closer to 45%, offering exceptional value as the most likely result.
This technical striking matchup between two high-level strikers with solid defensive metrics should reach the judges. Fiziev absorbs 4.77 strikes per minute while landing the same, showing mutual respect in exchanges. Ruffy’s 60% striking defense and measured approach (3.84 output) suggests a patient gameplan.
Neither fighter attempts submissions, eliminating that finish path entirely. At -150 (implied 60%), we project this goes three rounds around 70% of the time, making it solid bankroll-builder value despite the juice.
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Small stake only. Fiziev’s legendary leg kicks have crumpled opponents before, and Ruffy’s orthodox stance presents a clean target for the lead leg. If Fiziev’s volume includes sustained leg kick attacks, Ruffy’s mobility could deteriorate in round 3, creating a late TKO opportunity.
Fiziev’s switch stance creates angles for his devastating strikes, and against a fighter with limited UFC experience, an overwhelming finish is possible. At +480 (implied 17.2%), this offers a massive payout if Fiziev’s technical assault breaks Ruffy. Keep stakes at 0.25 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Rafael Fiziev by Unanimous Decision
We are backing Fiziev to secure a unanimous decision victory, likely 29-28 on all scorecards in a competitive technical striking battle. The Azerbaijani’s superior striking volume, elite Muay Thai technique, and championship experience should overcome Ruffy’s physical advantages over three rounds.
Fiziev should win rounds 1 and 3 with sustained leg kick attacks, volume striking, and technical combinations from his switch stance. Ruffy can steal round 2 with effective range management, utilizing his 4 inch reach advantage and superior striking accuracy to control distance and land clean counters. As the fight progresses, Fiziev’s leg kicks should accumulate damage on Ruffy’s lead leg, limiting the Brazilian’s mobility and offensive output.
The height and reach disadvantages create challenges for Fiziev, but his experience, volume, and technical diversity should prove decisive. Ruffy’s counter-striking approach plays into Fiziev’s hands, allowing the veteran to dictate pace and accumulate points. This victory should re-establishes Fiziev as a top-7 lightweight and positions him for another title eliminator down the line.
How to Bet UFC 325: Tips for This Card
Beyond this lightweight striking showcase, UFC 325 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
UFC 325 is Alexander Volkanovski’s first title defense in Australia since winning the belt. Home-country advantage and crowd support make him an even stronger play than odds suggest.
Despite Dan Hooker’s improvements, Saint-Denis’ 4.33 takedowns per fight creates massive volume advantage. History shows relentless grapplers eventually break through.
Physical advantages can’t be ignored. Ruffy’s 3 inch height and 4 inch reach edge create legitimate problems. If his accuracy (57% vs 52%) and defense (60% vs 50%) hold, the upset is live.
UFC 325 Fight Card
Main Card (09:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs Diego Lopes – UFC Featherweight Championship, 5 rounds
Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Tai Tuivasa vs Thiago Santos – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Quinlan Salkilld vs Jamie Mullarkey – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Prelims (7:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Justin Tafa vs Billy Elekana – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Cam Rowston vs Cody Brundage – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jacob Malkoun vs Torrez Finney – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Early Prelims (5:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Kaan Ofli vs Yi Zha – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Kim Sang-wook vs Dom Mar Fan – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Sulangrangbo vs Lawrence Lui – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Aaron Tau vs Namsrai Batbayar – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
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