UFC Vegas 114’s prelim card features a welterweight clash between American veteran Chris Curtis and Kazakh rising star Myktybek Orolbai. This 3-round bout pits the 38 year old high-volume striker against the 27 year old wrestling-heavy finisher at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Orolbai opens as a -300 favorite, with Curtis at +240 as a significant underdog. This welterweight prelim matchup sets up as a classic striker vs grappler battle.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC Vegas 114: Curtis vs Orolbai, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC Vegas 114
Weight class: UFC Welterweight bout
Fight length: 3-round prelim fight
Date & time: March 14, 2026 – Prelims 07:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~09:20 p.m. ET
Odds updated: March 13, 2026 – 05:00 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Curtis vs Orolbai.
Tale Of The Tape
Chris Curtis
Myktybek Orolbai
Record
32-12-0 (1 NC)
15-2-1
Age
38
27
Height
5’10”
5’10”
Reach
75″
74″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
5.98
3.24
Striking Accuracy
50%
48%
Strikes Absorbed
6.19
3.31
Striking Defense
54%
50%
Takedowns
0.00
5.48
Takedown Accuracy
0%
45%
Takedown Defense
82%
40%
Submission Avg.
0.0
0.6
Orolbai’s 5.48 takedowns per fight at 45% accuracy is the defining number in this matchup. Curtis counters with superior striking output at 5.98 per minute, but his 6.19 strikes absorbed per minute and zero takedown offense means this fight plays entirely on Orolbai’s terms.
Fighter Breakdown – Chris Curtis Analysis
Curtis comes in with a 32-12-0 record (1 NC) as one of the more durable and active strikers in the welterweight division. The 38 year old throws constantly and has never been taken down in his professional career by choice rather than ability. The problem is he has never attempted a takedown either, leaving him entirely reliant on his striking to win.
Strengths: High striking volume at 5.98 significant strikes per minute. Solid 50% striking accuracy. Strong 82% takedown defense. Veteran experience across 45 professional fights at the highest level.
Weaknesses: Absorbs a punishing 6.19 significant strikes per minute. Zero takedown offense means he cannot threaten Orolbai’s wrestling with level changes of his own. Age 38 is a real factor. No submission offense whatsoever. Declining finishing ability reflected in his recent results.
Betting Angles: Curtis by Decision (+450) is only worth considering as a deep longshot. His +245 moneyline has some chaos value if he lands a big shot early, but the structural disadvantage is too significant.
Orolbai comes in with a 15-2-1 record as one of the most wrestling-dominant fighters in the welterweight division. His only blemishes are two losses and a draw, and he brings a 0.6 submission average to complement his takedown volume.
Strengths: Elite takedown volume at 5.48 per fight. Solid 45% takedown accuracy against all levels of opposition. Respectable 0.6 submission average to threaten once on top. Absorbs only 3.31 significant strikes per minute. 11 year youth advantage at just 27 years old.
Weaknesses: Only 40% takedown defense leaves himself open if Curtis somehow attempts a takedown. Lower striking volume at 3.24 per minute. 50% striking defense is below Curtis’s 54%. Two losses and a draw show he can be derailed by the right opposition.
Betting Angles: Orolbai by Decision (+145) is our primary play given his wrestling control path. Orolbai by Submission (+390) offers a nice payout if he grinds Curtis down on the mat and finds a finish.
Orolbai’s 5.48 takedowns per fight against Curtis’s zero takedown defense creates a grappling dynamic that shapes all three rounds. Orolbai will shoot, get takedowns, and will accumulate control time on the scorecards.
Curtis’s 82% takedown defense is his best asset, but that number was built against lesser wrestling competition. Against 5.48 attempts per fight at 45% accuracy, some takedowns will land regardless. At +145 (implied 40.8%), we project this outcome closer to 52-55%, making it a clear value play.
Neither fighter profiles as a reliable finisher in this matchup. Curtis has zero submission offense and declining KO power. Orolbai’s 0.6 submission average is modest, and his KO/TKO threat is a low probability.
The most natural outcome here is Orolbai grinding out rounds via wrestling control and accumulating a decision win while Curtis throws leather that mostly misses or gets absorbed without effect. At -134 (implied 57.3%), this is clean value for a fight that looks built for fifteen minutes.
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Small stake only. Orolbai’s 0.6 submission average against a Curtis who has absolutely zero ground game is a legitimate finishing path. If Orolbai secures a dominant position in round two or three with a tired Curtis beneath him, there is a real submission scenario.
At +390 (implied 20.4%), a small stake offers excellent payout for the finishing variation of our primary prediction. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official Pick: Myktybek Orolbai by Decision
We are backing Orolbai to use his elite wrestling to control all three rounds and earn a clear decision victory. Curtis will come out throwing combinations and look to keep the fight standing as he has no other option. But Orolbai’s 5.48 takedowns per fight means he will get the fight to the mat early and often.
Once on the ground, Curtis has no answers. His zero submission defense history combined with Orolbai’s 0.6 average creates ongoing danger across fifteen minutes. Even without a submission, Orolbai’s control time will dominate the scorecards round by round.
Curtis’s striking accuracy and volume keep this competitive on the feet between scrambles, but the wrestling volume is simply too much to overcome across three rounds. Orolbai wins clearly on all three judges’ cards while Curtis’s UFC future grows increasingly uncertain at 38 years old.
How to Bet UFC Vegas 114: Tips for This Card
Card Tips:
Orolbai’s 5.48 takedowns per fight is the single most dominant wrestling stat on the prelim card.
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos headlines the main card in a 5-round featherweight main event.
Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund on the main card features the most extraordinary striking stat: Asplund’s 19.93 strikes per minute.
UFC Vegas 114 Fight Card
Main Card (10:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos — Featherweight bout, 5 rounds
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