UFC Vegas 114’s co-main event features a critical women’s strawweight clash between former title challenger Amanda Lemos and grappler Gillian Robertson. This 3-round bout pits the Brazilian striker looking to reverse recent struggles against the Canadian submission specialist riding a four-fight winning streak at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Robertson opens as a -200 favorite, with Lemos at +165 as the underdog. This women’s strawweight showdown represents a crucial opportunity for Robertson to crack the top five while Lemos desperately needs a victory to halt her slide down the rankings.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC Vegas 114: Lemos vs Robertson, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC Vegas 114
Weight class: UFC Women’s Strawweight bout
Fight length: 3-round co-main event
Date & time: March 14, 2026 – Main card 10:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~10:15 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: March 11, 2026 – 10:00 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Lemos vs Robertson.
Tale Of The Tape
Amanda Lemos
Gillian Robertson
Record
15-5-1
16-8
Age
38
30
Height
5’4″
5’5″
Reach
65″
63″
Stance
Southpaw
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
2.75
2.86
Striking Accuracy
55%
48%
Strikes Absorbed
3.24
2.86
Striking Defense
45%
56%
Takedowns
1.02
2.74
Takedown Accuracy
62%
40%
Takedown Defense
64%
41%
Submission Avg.
0.7
0.9
Robertson holds advantages in wrestling volume and submission attempts. Lemos counters with superior striking accuracy and better takedown defense. The southpaw vs orthodox matchup creates angles for both fighters.
Fighter Breakdown – Amanda Lemos Analysis
Lemos comes in with a 15-5-1 record as the former title challenger but has dropped two of her last three fights. The 38 year old Brazilian is currently ranked #5 in the strawweight division despite recent struggles.
Strengths: Former title challenger experience against Zhang Weili. Powerful striking with eight career KO/TKO wins. Superior striking accuracy at 55%. Strong takedown accuracy at 62%. Black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Weaknesses: Age 38 is ancient for strawweight. Lost two of last three including submission to Virna Jandiroba and decision to Tatiana Suarez. Poor striking defense (45%) leaves openings. Vulnerable to elite grapplers. Can be controlled on the ground. Recent struggles against top competition.
Betting Angles: Lemos by Decision (+325) offers lottery ticket value if striking dominates. Lemos’s +165 moneyline provides underdog opportunity.
Robertson brings a 16-8 record riding a four-fight winning streak. The 30 year old Canadian is currently ranked #8 and trains with Din Thomas.
Strengths: Four-fight winning streak with two finishes. Elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. Superior wrestling volume (2.74 TD per fight). Nine career submission wins including seven in UFC. Most finishes in UFC women’s flyweight history with seven.
Weaknesses: Poor takedown defense (41%) leaves vulnerable. Overall 16-8 record shows inconsistency. Six career decision losses. Can be outstruck by elite strikers. Struggles with high-level competition.
Betting Angles: Robertson by Decision (+175) is our primary value play. Robertson by Submission (+320) offers solid payout.
This offers excellent value for Robertson’s most controlled path to victory. Her superior wrestling volume (2.74 vs 1.02 takedowns) against Lemos’s declining 64% defense creates inevitable grappling exchanges where Robertson accumulates control time.
While Robertson holds nine career submissions, Lemos’s BJJ black belt and 38 years of experience make submissions difficult to secure. Robertson’s patient approach should dominate cage positioning without forcing risky finishes. At +175 (implied 36.4%), we project this outcome closer to 50%, offering tremendous value for the disciplined decision victory.
Both fighters demonstrate durability with Lemos never knocked out and Robertson’s recent TKO being rare occurrence. Lemos’s BJJ credentials neutralize Robertson’s submission threats despite grappling advantage.
The striking exchanges suggest competitive rounds rather than quick finishes. Robertson’s improved striking combined with Lemos’s veteran savvy creates patient approaches. At -140 (implied 58.3%), this represents solid value for three rounds.
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Longshot Flier: Robertson by Submission (+320)
Small stake only. Robertson’s nine career submissions demonstrate elite finishing ability. If Lemos’s conditioning fades defending takedowns, Robertson’s BJJ black belt could secure late submissions.
Lemos was submitted by Jandiroba in round two, exposing grappling vulnerabilities. At +320 (implied 23.8%), this offers massive payout for the finishing scenario. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Gillian Robertson by Unanimous Decision
We are backing Robertson to extend her winning streak to five with a clear unanimous decision victory, likely 30-27 or 29-28 on the scorecards. Robertson’s wrestling volume, four-fight momentum and youth advantage should prove decisive over three rounds.
Robertson should establish her wrestling early using superior 2.74 takedowns per fight against Lemos’s declining 64% defense. Once on top, Robertson’s control time and ground strikes will accumulate rounds without taking risks against Lemos’s BJJ black belt. Lemos should have success with striking accuracy when standing, but Robertson’s improved striking should keep exchanges competitive.
We expect Robertson to clearly win rounds 1, 2 and 3 with effective wrestling and cage control. Lemos’s age and conditioning combined with defending relentless takedowns creates perfect conditions for Robertson’s grinding style. This victory pushes Robertson into top-five contention while raising serious questions about Lemos’s future at age 38 ranked #5.
How to Bet UFC Vegas 114: Tips for This Card
Card Tips:
Robertson’s four-fight winning streak and wrestling volume create overwhelming momentum advantage.
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos main event features 17-year age gap.
Ion Cuțelaba vs Oumar Sy at light heavyweight offers explosive knockout potential.
UFC Vegas 114 Fight Card
Main Card (10:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos – Featherweight bout, 5 rounds Amanda Lemos vs Gillian Robertson – Women’s Strawweight bout, 3 rounds Ion Cuțelaba vs Oumar Sy – Light Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds Andre Fili vs Jose Miguel Delgado – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds Marwan Rahiki vs Harry Hardwick – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Prelims (07:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Charles Johnson vs Bruno Gustavo da Silva – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds Brad Tavares vs Eryk Anders – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds Chris Curtis vs Myktybek Orolbai – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds Bolaji Oki vs Manoel Sousa – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds Luan Lacerda vs Hecher Sosa – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds Beatriz Mesquita vs Montserrat Rendon – Women’s Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds Elijah Smith vs You Su-young – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds Piera Rodriguez vs Sam Hughes – Women’s Strawweight bout, 3 rounds
Odds current as of March 11, 2026.
(Image Credit: Lily Smith/The Regis – Imagn Images)
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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