UFC 325 returns to Australia with a historic featherweight championship rematch featuring Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes. Volkanovski makes his first title defense on home soil and Lopes seeks redemption in this title rematch, This 5-round main event will be held at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney.
Volkanovski brings a 27-4 record with the recent decision win over Lopes marking his return to championship glory at age 37. Lopes enters with a 27-7 record including a second-round TKO of Jean Silva and previous wins over Brian Ortega and Sodiq Yusuff. Volkanovski is a -150 favorite with Lopes at +125 as the underdog.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC 325 – Qudos Bank Arena
Weight class: UFC Featherweight Championship bout
Fight length: 5-round main event
Date & time: Saturday, Jan 31, 2026 – Main card 09:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~11:00 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: January 27, 2026 – 7:30 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Volkanovski vs Lopes.
Tale Of The Tape
Alexander Volkanovski
Diego Lopes
Record
27-4
27-7
Age
37
31
Height
5’6″
5’11”
Reach
71″
72″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
6.18
4.10
Striking Accuracy
56%
48%
Takedowns
1.67
0.79
Takedown Defense
70%
67%
Submission Avg.
0.2
1.7
Volkanovski holds massive advantages in striking volume and accuracy. Lopes counters with a 5-inch height advantage, dangerous submission game (1.7/15 min), and youth at 31 years old. Both fighters are orthodox, creating a symmetrical striking matchup where Volk’s superior volume and accuracy should control the pace.
Fighter Breakdown – Alexander Volkanovski Analysis
Volkanovski comes in with a 27-4 record including his recent unanimous decision victory over Lopes at UFC 314. The 37 year old nicknamed “The Great” is a two-time UFC featherweight champion with the longest average fight time in division history.
Strengths: Elite cardio and pace for 25 minutes. Exceptional striking volume (6.18/min) and accuracy. Strong wrestling base (1.67 TD/15min) from Greco-Roman background. Championship experience with 11-fight featherweight win streak (2018-2023). Fighting at home in Australia provides massive motivation and crowd support. Already defeated Lopes once, understanding his patterns and tendencies.
Weaknesses: Age 37 with accumulated damage from wars. Height disadvantage (5 inches) creates reach problems. Coming off knockouts in two of last three losses shows potential chin deterioration. Short turnaround since April 2025 title win. Faces dangerous finisher with improved game plan.
Betting Angles: Volkanovski by Decision (+165) is our primary play given his volume-based style and Lopes’ durability. Volkanovski’s -150 moneyline offers minimal value. Fight goes the distance (+106) appeals given both fighters’ recent decision trends.
Lopes brings a 27-7 record including recent wins over Jean Silva, Brian Ortega, and Dan Ige. The 31 year old is a 2nd-degree BJJ black belt and former LUX Fight League featherweight champion seeking redemption after his April loss to Volkanovski.
Strengths: Dangerous finishing ability with 18 career finishes. Elite BJJ credentials and submission threat (1.7 attempts/15min). Youth at 31 years old. Spectacular TKO of Jean Silva with spinning elbow shows evolved striking. Five-inch height advantage creates range problems for Volkanovski. Improved game plan after studying first fight tape.
Weaknesses: Already lost to Volkanovski by unanimous decision (48-47, 49-46, 48-47) nine months ago. Lower striking volume and accuracy than elite featherweights. Poor takedown defense (67%) against elite wrestlers. First UFC title fight ended in loss.
Betting Angles: Lopes’ +125 moneyline offers value for his finishing upside and improvements. Lopes by KO/TKO (+320 ) is interesting given Volkanovski’s recent knockout losses. Lopes by Submission (+600) represents a longshot path to upset victory.
Best Bets For Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes
Volkanovski already defeated Lopes by decision 9 months ago, controlling the pace with superior volume and accuracy. The Australian’s cardio advantage becomes even more pronounced in a championship rematch where both fighters have studied tape. Lopes is extremely durable and his submission threat prevents Volkanovski from taking excessive risks on the ground. At +165 (implied 37.7%), we think this hits closer to 50-55%, offering excellent value as the most likely outcome.
Both fighters went the distance in their first meeting, and this rematch likely follows the same pattern. Volkanovski rarely finishes opponents via knockout (only 5 KO wins in 27 victories), while Lopes has never been knocked out in his career. The submission threat exists but Volkanovski’s wrestling credentials and cautiousness prevent major grappling risks. At +106 (implied 48.5%), we think this goes five rounds around 65% of the time, making it solid value.
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Small stake only. If Lopes finds success, it comes late when Volkanovski tires. The 37 year old champion could slow in championship rounds, creating submission opportunities for the elite BJJ black belt. Lopes has 8 career tap-out wins. Volkanovski has never been submitted but his 70% takedown defense could allow late scrambles. At 16-1, this offers massive payout for a specific but plausible scenario. Keep stakes at 0.25 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Alexander Volkanovski by Unanimous Decision
We are backing Volkanovski to defend his title with a clear unanimous decision, likely 49-46 or 48-47 on all scorecards. The Australian’s superior cardio, striking volume, and fight IQ should prove decisive in front of his home crowd. Volkanovski should control rounds 2, 3, 4, and 5 with relentless pace and accuracy, while Lopes steals round 1and maybe 3 with a strong grappling sequence.
The height disadvantage creates challenges, but Volk’s pressure and volume should overwhelm Lopes’ reach. The Brazilian’s improved game plan includes more submission attempts and body work, but Volkanovski’s championship experience and home-country advantage should carry the night. This victory solidifies Volkanovski’s legacy as one of the greatest featherweights ever.
How to Bet UFC 325: Tips for This Card
Beyond the featherweight championship main event, UFC 325 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
This is Volkanovski’s first title defense in Australia since winning the belt. Home-country advantage and crowd support make him an even stronger play than odds suggest.
Rematches favor the winner of the first fight 65% of the time in UFC history. Volkanovski’s previous victory creates strong precedent for repeat performance.
Lopes showed improved striking against Jean Silva with spinning elbow knockout. His evolution makes him dangerous, but nine months may not be enough time to close the gap.
UFC 325 Fight Card
Main Card (09:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs Diego Lopes – UFC Featherweight Championship, 5 rounds
Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Tai Tuivasa vs Thiago Santos – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Quinlan Salkilld vs Jamie Mullarkey – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Prelims (7:30 pm. ET – Paramount+)
Justin Tafa vs Billy Elekana – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Cam Rowston vs Cody Brundage – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jacob Malkoun vs Torrez Finney – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Early Prelims (5:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Kaan Ofli vs Yi Zha – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Kim Sang-wook vs Dom Mar Fan – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Sulangrangbo vs Lawrence Lui – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Aaron Tau vs Namsrai Batbayar – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
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