UFC 325’s main card features a heavyweight striking spectacle between Tai Tuivasa and Tallison Teixeira. This explosive matchup pits the beloved Australian knockout artist against the towering Brazilian finisher in what promises to be a violent, short-lived war. The bout takes place at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.
Tuivasa brings home-country support and legendary knockout power as he looks to snap a losing streak. Teixeira enters as a massive -375 favorite, with Tuivasa at +280 as a significant underdog. This fight represents a crucial crossroads for both heavyweights; Tuivasa fighting for relevance and probably continued UFC employment, and Teixeira fighting for a ranked opponent.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC 325: Tuivasa vs Teixeira, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC 325 – Qudos Bank Arena
Weight class: UFC Heavyweight bout
Fight length: 3-round main card bout
Date & time: Saturday, January 31, 2026 – Main card 09:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~9:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: January 29, 2026 – 12:55 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Tuivasa vs Teixeira.
Tale Of The Tape
Tai Tuivasa
Tallison Teixeira
Record
15-8
8-1
Age
32
25
Height
6’2″
6’7″
Reach
75″
83″
Stance
Southpaw
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
3.77
12.83
Striking Accuracy
46%
59%
Takedowns
0.00
0.00
Takedown Defense
57%
0%
Submission Avg.
0.0
0.0
Teixeira holds massive advantages across every striking metric: an astonishing 12.83 strikes landed per minute (vs 3.77), superior accuracy (59% vs 46%), better striking defense (56% vs 44%), and freakish physical dimensions with 5 inches in height and 8 inches in reach. Tuivasa’s only edge is experience and knockout power.
Fighter Breakdown – Tai Tuivasa Analysis
Tuivasa comes in with a 15-8 record but has lost five straight fights, including brutal knockout losses to Sergei Pavlovich, Ciryl Gane, Alexander Volkov, and Marcin Tybura. The 32 year old is beloved in Australia for his “shoey” celebrations and knockout power, but faces a must-win situation.
Strengths: Devastating knockout power with 13 career KO wins. Fights best when aggressive and pressing forward. Home-country advantage with massive crowd support in Sydney. Southpaw stance creates angles for his overhand left. When confident and landing early, can finish anyone. Fighting for survival adds desperation motivation.
Weaknesses: Five-fight losing streak with four knockout losses. Terrible striking defense (44%) leaves chin exposed constantly. Absorbs 5.18 significant strikes per minute. Massive height (5 inches) and reach (8 inches) disadvantage against towering opponent. Age 32 with accumulated damage. Never attempts takedowns (0.00 average) makes him one-dimensional. Recent losses show deteriorating chin and defensive awareness.
Betting Angles: Tuivasa’s +280 moneyline offers some value. Tuivasa by KO/TKO (+320) is the only path to victory given his one-dimensional approach. Fight doesn’t go distance (-1300) is a very safe bet but offers no betting value.
Teixeira brings an 8-1 record with all eight wins by knockout. The 25 year old Brazilian is a towering heavyweight prospect making waves with his freakish physical tools and devastating finishing ability.
Strengths: Unbelievable striking volume,12.83 strikes landed per minute is elite-level output for heavyweight. Freakish 6’7″ frame with 83-inch reach creates massive range advantage. Superior striking accuracy (59%) with efficient shot selection. Young at 25 years old. All 8 career wins by knockout shows consistent finishing ability. Aggressive pressure style overwhelms opponents.
Weaknesses: Limited high-level experience with only 9 total fights. Never faced elite competition like Tuivasa has. Untested takedown defense (0% on limited sample) though irrelevant against Tuivasa. Absorbed 8.98 strikes per minute, extremely high volume suggests defensive lapses. Only two UFC appearance shows limited octagon time. Could face adversity for first time against desperate veteran.
Betting Angles: Teixeira’s -375 moneyline offers minimal value despite overwhelming advantages. Teixeira by KO/TKO (-155) is our best bet given his finishing rate and Tuivasa’s defensive liabilities.
Teixeira has finished all 8 career wins by knockout, while Tuivasa has been knocked out in 4 of his last 5 fights with horrific 44% striking defense. The Brazilian’s massive volume against Tuivasa’s weak defense creates a recipe for disaster for the Australian. Teixeira’s 5 inch height and 8 inch reach advantage allows him to pepper Tuivasa from distance before landing the fight-ending blow. At -155 (implied 60.8%), we project this outcome closer to 75%, offering solid value as the most likely finish.
While -1300 offers minimal return, this is as close to a safe bet as exists in MMA. Neither fighter is known for fighting for decisions. Tuivasa’s deteriorating chin and defensive holes combined with Teixeira’s 100% finishing rate makes a stoppage virtually certain. At -1300 (implied 92.9%), we project this finishes around 95% of the time.
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Small stake only. Tuivasa possesses legitimate one-punch knockout power, and if he lands his overhand left early before absorbing damage, he can finish anyone. Fighting at home with desperate motivation could unlock vintage ‘Bam Bam’ performance. If Tuivasa catches him early, the upset happens. At +320 (implied 23.8%), this requires everything breaking right, but the home-country desperation factor makes it worth a 0.25-unit flier.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Tallison Teixeira by TKO, Round 2
We are backing Teixeira to secure a second-round TKO victory, overwhelming Tuivasa with volume before landing a finish. The towering Brazilian’s massive physical advantages and superior striking metrics should prove decisive against a desperate but deteriorating Tuivasa.
We see round 1 where Teixeira establishes his jab and distance management, using his freakish 83 inch reach to pepper Tuivasa from the outside. The Australian should presses forward looking for his overhand left, landing occasional power shots but absorbing significant volume. As Tuivasa’s desperation grows, his defense deteriorates further.
Round 2 begins with accumulated damage affecting Tuivasa’s movement and defensive awareness. We see a clean combination or a single right drop Tuivasa, and follow-up ground strikes force the referee stoppage. For Teixeira, this victory announces his arrival as a legitimate heavyweight prospect and earns him a ranked opponent next. Tuivasa faces serious questions about his future in the UFC after another devastating knockout loss.
How to Bet UFC 325: Tips for This Card
Beyond this heavyweight finish fest, UFC 325 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
Tuivasa’s streak can’t be ignored. Five straight knockout losses with deteriorating defense makes him extremely vulnerable. Don’t bet on nostalgia or home-country advantage against superior opponent.
UFC 325 is Alexander Volkanovski’s first title defense in Australia since winning the belt. Home-country advantage and crowd support make him an even stronger play than odds suggest.
With under 1.5 rounds at -270, oddsmakers expect quick finish. Both fighters’ styles suggest first-round fireworks or early second-round stoppage.
UFC 325 Fight Card
Main Card (09:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs Diego Lopes – UFC Featherweight Championship, 5 rounds
Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Tai Tuivasa vs Tallison Teixeira – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Quinlan Salkilld vs Jamie Mullarkey – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Prelims (7:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Justin Tafa vs Billy Elekana – Heavyweight bout, 3 roundss
Cam Rowston vs Cody Brundage – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jacob Malkoun vs Torrez Finney – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Early Prelims (5:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Kaan Ofli vs Yi Zha – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Kim Sang-wook vs Dom Mar Fan – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Sulangrangbo vs Lawrence Lui – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Aaron Tau vs Namsrai Batbayar – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
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