UFC Vegas 114’s main card opens with a heavyweight clash between Brazilian contender Vitor Petrino and American prospect Steven Asplund. This 3-round bout pits the well-rounded 28-year-old grappler against the massive 27-year-old power puncher at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Petrino opens as a -250 favorite, with Asplund at +200. This heavyweight opener has genuine finish potential in both directions. Here’s how we’re betting UFC Vegas 114: Petrino vs Asplund, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini FIght Info Strip
Event: UFC Vegas 114
Weight class: UFC Heavyweight bout
Fight length: 3-round prelim card fight
Date & time: March 14, 2026 – Prelim card 07:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~09:40 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: March 13, 2026 – 03:00 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Petrino vs Asplund.
Tale of the Tape
Vitor Petrino
Steven Asplund
Record
13-2-0
7-1-0
Age
28
27
Weight
225 lbs.
260 lbs.
Height
6’2″
6’5″
Reach
77″
78″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
2.75
19.93
Striking Accuracy
46%
58%
Strikes Absorbed
2.48
7.49
Striking Defense
47%
57%
Takedowns
3.04
0.00
Takedown Accuracy
51%
0%
Takedown Defense
79%
100%
Submission Avg.
0.8
0.0
The standout number in this entire matchup is Asplund’s 19.93 significant strikes landed per minute. This is a genuinely extraordinary figure that dwarfs anything seen in the heavyweight division. However, Petrino’s 3.04 takedowns per fight at 51% accuracy against Asplund’s 0% takedown defense creates a glaring pathway to a finish on the ground.
Fighter Breakdown – Vitor Petrino Analysis
Petrino comes in with a 13-2-0 record as a well-rounded heavyweight with genuine finishing ability. The 28 year old Brazilian is a legitimate grappler, especially dangerous against an opponent with zero takedown defense.
Strengths: Elite takedown volume at 3.04 per fight with 51% accuracy. Strong 0.8 submission average. Absorbs only 2.48 significant strikes per minute. Excellent 79% takedown defense. Solid 15-fight professional experience against a 7-1 opponent.
Weaknesses: Only 47% striking defense on the feet. Low striking volume at 2.75 per minute. If the fight stays standing, Asplund’s output and accuracy overwhelm him quickly. Two losses on his record show he can be beaten when his grappling is neutralized.
Betting Angles: Petrino by Submission (+270) is our primary play. His -250 moneyline is steep but justified given the grappling mismatch.
Asplund comes in with a 7-1-0 record and one of the most eye-catching statistical profiles you will ever see. The 27 year old American’s lone loss came by decision, and he has never been taken down professionally.
Strengths: Astonishing 19.93 significant strikes landed per minute. Excellent 58% striking accuracy at that extraordinary volume. Strong 57% striking defense on the feet. Perfect 100% takedown defense in his professional career. Three-inch height advantage at 6’5″.
Weaknesses: Zero takedown offense whatsoever. No submission offense to speak of. Absorbs 7.49 significant strikes per minute. His 7-1 record is limited in terms of UFC-caliber opposition. If Petrino gets him down, Asplund has no answers.
Betting Angles: Asplund’s +200 moneyline offers real value if his striking completely overwhelms Petrino before a takedown lands. Asplund by KO/TKO (+470) is the only realistic finishing path for the American.
Petrino attempts 3.04 takedowns per fight at 51% accuracy. Asplund has 0% takedown defense across his entire professional career. Once Petrino gets the fight to the mat, which the numbers suggest he will, Asplund has no ground game whatsoever.
A 0.0 submission average against a 0.8 average opponent with elite takedown accuracy is a nightmare scenario. We project this outcome closer to 40%, making +270 outstanding value.
Both finishing paths are well represented here. Either Petrino gets a takedown and works a submission, or Asplund lands one of his extraordinary volume of strikes and gets a stoppage. Neither fighter profiles as a decision grinder. At -215 (implied 68.3%), this is solid juice for a fight that screams finish.
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Small stake only. Asplund’s striking output is so extraordinary that even one clean exchange before Petrino can shoot could end the fight. Petrino absorbs 2.48 strikes per minute against normal opponents and Asplund is anything but normal at 19.93.
If Asplund catches Petrino coming in for a takedown attempt, the size and power advantage could produce a spectacular upset. At +470 (implied 17.5%), a small stake is warranted. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official Pick: Vitor Petrino by Submission
We are backing Petrino to use his grappling to neutralize Asplund’s extraordinary striking and secure a submission finish. We see Asplund making round one terrifying with his 19.93 strikes per minute. Petrino will need to weather early volume to get the fight where he wants it.
But Petrino’s 51% takedown accuracy against an opponent with zero takedown defense is simply too significant to ignore. Once the fight hits the mat, Asplund’s complete absence of ground game gives Petrino free reign to work his 0.8 submission average without resistance.
This fight likely ends in round two once Petrino weathers the early storm and begins controlling distance. Asplund’s striking numbers are genuinely remarkable but have yet to be tested against a grappler of Petrino’s quality.
How to Bet UFC Vegas 114: Tips for This Card
Card Tips:
Asplund’s 19.93 significant strikes per minute is the most extraordinary statistical outlier on the entire card, but means nothing if Petrino gets him down.
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos headlines in a 5-round featherweight main event with a 17-year age gap.
Oumar Sy vs Ion Cuțelaba offers the best standalone knockout value at light heavyweight.
UFC Vegas 114 Fight Card
Main Card (10:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos — Featherweight bout, 5 rounds
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