UFC 325’s co-main event has a compelling lightweight clash featuring Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis. This high-stakes matchup pits the veteran ‘Hangman’ against the rising ‘God of War.’ This 3 round bout takes place on the main card at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.
Hooker brings an interesting challenge as the experienced veteran looking to spoil Saint-Denis’ championship aspirations. Saint-Denis enters as a massive -350 favorite, with Hooker at +275 as a substantial underdog. This fight could determine the next lightweight title challenger.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC 325: Hooker vs Saint-Denis, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC 325 – Qudos Bank Arena
Weight class: UFC Lightweight bout
Fight length: 3-round co-main event
Date & time: Saturday, January 31, 2026 – Main card 09:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~10:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: January 28, 2026 – 10:20 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Hooker vs Saint-Denis.
Tale Of The Tape
Dan Hooker
Benoit Saint-Denis
Record
24-13
16-3 (1 NC)
Age
34
28
Height
6’0″
5’11”
Reach
75″
73″
Stance
Switch
Southpaw
Sig. Strikes Landed
4.89
5.07
Striking Accuracy
48%
55%
Takedowns
0.71
4.33
Takedown Defense
77%
70%
Submission Avg.
0.5
1.6
Saint-Denis holds advantages in striking accuracy, takedown volume, and submission attempts. Hooker counters with experience, 1 inch height advantage, superior reach, and better takedown defense at 77%. The switch-stance vs southpaw matchup creates angles for both fighters, but Saint-Denis’ pressure and grappling volume should prove decisive over three rounds.
Fighter Breakdown – Dan Hooker Analysis
Hooker comes in with a 24-13 record and serves as one of the UFC’s most respected lightweights. The 34 year old has faced elite competition throughout his career and remains dangerous despite his underdog status.
Strengths: Elite striking from switch stance creates awkward angles. Excellent Muay Thai clinch work and knees. Durable chin that’s survived wars with Dustin Poirier and Islam Makhachev. 1-inch height and 2-inch reach advantage provides range control. Experience against elite competition. Dangerous body kicks and teep kicks to maintain distance. Improved takedown defense at 77% shows defensive evolution.
Weaknesses: Age 34 with significant accumulated damage. Despite improved 77% takedown defense, faces a nightmare matchup against 4.33 takedowns per fight volume. Inconsistent record (24-13) shows vulnerability to top-tier competition. Limited submission defense once fight hits the mat against elite grapplers.
Betting Angles: Hooker’s +275 moneyline offers value only if you believe his striking can finish Saint-Denis early. Hooker by KO/TKO (+550) is interesting for his power striking.
Saint-Denis brings a 16-3 (1 NC) record and has emerged as one of the UFC’s most exciting lightweight prospects. The 28 year old French fighter is a former French Special Forces soldier with relentless pressure and an elite grappling game.
Strengths: Relentless pressure that overwhelms opponents. Elite takedown offense (4.33 per 15 minutes) with chain wrestling. Dangerous submission game with 1.6 attempts per fight and multiple submission wins. Superior striking accuracy (55%) with effective boxing combinations. Momentum from recent impressive performances. Well-rounded skillset with volume striking (5.07 per minute).
Weaknesses: Takedown defense at 70% shows vulnerability to elite wrestlers. Limited experience against top-5 competition. Knockout loss to Dustin Poirier showed vulnerability to elite strikers. Striking defense at just 42% leaves openings for counters. Tendency to push pace could lead to defensive lapses. Lower takedown accuracy (37%) means volume matters more than efficiency.
Betting Angles: Saint-Denis’ -350 moneyline offers minimal value despite being the superior fighter. Saint-Denis by Decision (+300 ) is our best bet given Hooker’s durability and improved takedown defense forcing a grinding pace. Saint-Denis by Submission (+165) offers excellent value if his grappling dominance overcomes Hooker’s defensive improvements.
Despite Saint-Denis’ finishing reputation, Hooker’s improved 77% takedown defense and legendary durability should force this to the judges. Saint-Denis should win with relentless pressure, volume striking, and wrestling control, but Hooker has gone the distance with elite competition.
The French fighter’s 4.33 takedowns per fight should control position without finding the finish against Hooker’s improved defensive grappling. At +300 (implied 25%), we project this outcome closer to 40%, offering exceptional value as the most likely finish for Saint-Denis against a durable veteran.
While our official pick is decision, Saint-Denis’ submission threat remains dangerous. He averages 1.6 submission attempts per fight. If Hooker’s 77% takedown defense falters under volume, the grappling exchanges could produce a finish. Hooker has been submitted 4 times in his career including losses to elite grapplers. At +165 (implied 37.7%), this offers strong value if Saint-Denis’ pressure breaks through Hooker’s improved defenses in rounds 2 or 3.
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Hooker’s durability combined with his improved 77% takedown defense creates a path to the final bell. While Saint-Denis is favored to win, Hooker has survived 15 minute wars with killers and his defensive improvements limit finishing opportunities. If his takedown defense holds and he maintains distance early, this grinds to a decision. At +178 (implied 36%), we project this closer to 45-50%, making it excellent value for those believing in Hooker’s veteran craftiness and improved wrestling defense.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Benoit Saint-Denis by Unanimous Decision
We are backing Saint-Denis to secure a unanimous decision victory, likely 29-28 on all scorecards in a competitive three-round battle. The French fighter’s relentless pressure, superior striking volume, and takedown threats should control the pace, but Hooker’s improved 77% takedown defense and durability prevent a finish.
Saint-Denis should win rounds 2 and 3 with cumulative pressure, wrestling control time, and volume striking. Hooker’s experience and striking craft can steal round 1 with effective distance management and counter-striking from his switch stance. As the fight progresses, Saint-Denis’ youth, cardio, and relentless pace should overwhelm the veteran.
Hooker’s improved takedown defense keeps this closer than expected, preventing the submission threat from materializing. However, Saint-Denis’ 4.33 takedowns per fight create enough control time and cage dominance to win a clear but competitive decision. This victory should positions Saint-Denis as a top-7 lightweight and continue his march toward title contention.
How to Bet UFC 325: Tips for This Card
Beyond the lightweight co-main event, UFC 325 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
Both fighters have shown durability recently. With Saint-Denis by Decision at +300 and Fight Goes Distance at +178, the decision path offers exceptional value.
Stylistic matchup still favors grappler. Despite Hooker’s improvements, Saint-Denis’ 4.33 takedowns per fight creates massive volume advantage. History shows relentless grapplers eventually break through.
Diego Lopes showed improved striking against Jean Silva with spinning elbow knockout. His evolution makes him dangerous, but nine months may not be enough time to close the gap against Alexander Volkanovski .
UFC 325 Fight Card
Main Card (09:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs Diego Lopes – UFC Featherweight Championship, 5 rounds
Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Tai Tuivasa vs Thiago Santos – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Quinlan Salkilld vs Jamie Mullarkey – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Prelims (7:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Justin Tafa vs Billy Elekana – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Cam Rowston vs Cody Brundage – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jacob Malkoun vs Torrez Finney – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Early Prelims (5:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Kaan Ofli vs Yi Zha – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Kim Sang-wook vs Dom Mar Fan – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Sulangrangbo vs Lawrence Lui – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Aaron Tau vs Namsrai Batbayar – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
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