UFC 325’s main card opener features an all-Australian lightweight clash between Quillan Salkilld and Jamie Mullarkey. This home-country showdown pits the rising star Salkilld against the veteran striker Mullarkey in what promises to be a scrap. The bout takes place at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.
Salkilld brings elite wrestling credentials and finishing ability as he looks to continue his rise through the lightweight ranks. Mullarkey enters as the experienced underdog looking to spoil his countryman’s momentum. Salkilld opens as a massive -1000 favorite, with Mullarkey at +625 as a heavy underdog.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC 325: Salkilld vs Mullarkey, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC 325 – Qudos Bank Arena
Weight class: UFC Lightweight bout
Fight length: 3-round main card opener
Date & time: Saturday, January 31, 2026 – Main card 09:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~9:00 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: January 29, 2026 – 4:30 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Salkilld vs Mullarkey.
Tale Of The Tape
Quillan Salkilld
Jamie Mullarkey
Record
9-1
18-8
Age
25
30
Height
6’0″
6’0″
Reach
75″
74″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
5.49
4.20
Striking Accuracy
57%
46%
Takedowns
7.77
2.40
Takedown Defense
100%
78%
Submission Avg.
0.5
0.1
Salkilld holds massive advantages in striking volume, striking accuracy, and especially wrestling with an elite 7.77 takedowns per fight and perfect 100% takedown defense. Mullarkey counters with superior striking defense and experience, and age at 30.
Fighter Breakdown – Quillan Salkilld Analysis
Salkilld comes in with a 9-1 record and has emerged as one of Australia’s most exciting lightweight prospects. The 25 year old possesses elite wrestling credentials with devastating ground-and-pound and finishing ability.
Strengths: Elite wrestling offense with 7.77 takedowns per 15 minutes. Perfect 100% takedown defense has never been taken down. Superior striking volume (5.49 per minute) and accuracy (57%). Young at 25 years old. Well-rounded skillset combining striking and grappling. Momentum from recent victories. High fight IQ and adaptability.
Weaknesses: Limited high-level experience with only 11 total fights. Poor striking defense (43%) leaves openings for counters. Never faced opponent with Mullarkey’s experience and durability. Could face adversity for first time against veteran. Takedown accuracy only 34% despite high volume means efficiency needs improvement.
Betting Angles: Salkilld’s -1000 moneyline offers no value despite overwhelming advantages. Salkilld by KO/TKO (-130) is our best bet given his ground-and-pound finishing ability. Salkilld by Submission (+260) offers value if grappling exchanges produce that opportunity.
Mullarkey brings an 18-8 record with experience against solid UFC competition. The 30-year-old Australian veteran is a durable striker known for entertaining fights and toughness, but faces a massive stylistic mismatch.
Strengths: Experience with 26 total fights and multiple UFC appearances. Superior striking defense (54%) limits clean shots. Decent takedown defense (78%) against average wrestlers. Occasional knockout power with striking. Veteran savvy and fight IQ. Orthodox stance provides clean striking lanes.
Weaknesses: Massive skill gap against elite prospect. Lower striking volume and accuracy. Poor takedown defense (78%) will be exploited by elite wrestler averaging 7.77 per fight. Age 30 with accumulated damage. Inconsistent 18-8 record shows vulnerability. Limited submission game (0.1 average). Faces nightmare stylistic matchup against superior grappler. Recent losses show declining form.
Betting Angles: Mullarkey’s +625 moneyline offers lottery ticket value only for massive upset believers. Mullarkey by KO/TKO (+1300) represents a longshot path requiring early knockout before wrestling takes over.
Salkilld’s elite wrestling (7.77 takedowns per fight) against Mullarkey’s limited takedown defense (78%) creates inevitable ground control. Once on top, Salkilld’s devastating ground-and-pound should produce a TKO stoppage. Mullarkey’s durability may survive early exchanges, but accumulated damage from strikes and takedowns leads to a finish.
Salkilld has shown finishing ability, and Mullarkey’s 18-8 record includes multiple stoppage losses. At –130 (implied 56.5%), we project this outcome closer to 65%, offering solid value.
While our official pick is KO/TKO, the grappling exchanges could produce a submission finish. Salkilld averages 0.5 submission attempts per fight, and once he establishes top control against Mullarkey’s limited ground game, choke opportunities emerge.
Mullarkey has been submitted before in his career. If the ground-and-pound doesn’t finish the fight, a late rear-naked choke or guillotine becomes increasingly likely as Mullarkey tires. At +260 (implied 27.8%), this offers excellent value for a realistic alternative finish path.
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Small stake only. Mullarkey’s decent durability and 54% striking defense could help him survive to the final bell despite losing every round. If Salkilld’s 34% takedown accuracy fails and the fight stays standing longer than expected, Mullarkey’s experience could carry him through. At +490 (implied 17%), this offers massive payout if Mullarkey’s toughness forces a decision. Keep stakes at 0.25 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Quillan Salkilld by KO/TKO
We are backing Salkilld to secure a TKO victory via ground-and-pound, overwhelming Mullarkey with superior wrestling and finishing ability. The young Australian prospect’s elite grappling credentials should prove decisive against the veteran’s limited ground defense.
We see Salkilld in round 1 establish his striking range, landing clean combinations with his superior accuracy. Mullarkey should survive early exchanges with his durability and striking defense, but Salkilld should be able to secure his first takedown midway through the round, establishing top control and landing ground-and-pound before the bell.
We see the same happening in round 2, with Salkilld putting devastating ground-and-pound on Mullarkey, forcing the referee to step in. This victory should position Salkilld for a ranked opponent next and establishes him as a legitimate lightweight contender.
How to Bet UFC 325: Tips for This Card
Beyond this all-Australian lightweight showcase, UFC 325 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
Wrestling dominance matters. Salkilld’s 7.77 takedowns per fight against Mullarkey’s 78% defense creates massive grappling advantage. Elite wrestlers finish fights at lightweight.
Despite Dan Hooker’s improvements, Benoi Saint-Denis’ 4.33 takedowns per fight creates massive volume advantage. History shows relentless grapplers eventually break through.
Home crowd factor limited: Both fighters are Australian, so home advantage neutralizes. Focus on skill matchup rather than location.
UFC 325 Fight Card
Main Card (09:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs Diego Lopes – UFC Featherweight Championship, 5 rounds
Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Tai Tuivasa vs Tallison Teixeira – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Quillan Salkilld vs Jamie Mullarkey – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Prelims (7:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Justin Tafa vs Billy Elekana – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Cam Rowston vs Cody Brundage – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jacob Malkoun vs Torrez Finney – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Early Prelims (5:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Kaan Ofli vs Yi Zha – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Kim Sang-wook vs Dom Mar Fan – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Sulangrangbo vs Lawrence Lui – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Aaron Tau vs Namsrai Batbayar – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
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