UFC Vegas 114’s prelim card features a bantamweight clash between American prospect Elijah Smith and South Korean veteran You Su-young. This 3-round bout pits the 23-year-old against the experienced 30-year-old at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Smith opens as a -250 favorite with You at +200 as the underdog. This bantamweight matchup is a compelling contrast of styles; Smith’s well-rounded offensive game against You’s elite defensive numbers and wrestling volume.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC Vegas 114: Smith vs You Su-young, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC Vegas 114
Weight class: UFC Bantamweight bout
Fight length: 3-round prelim fight
Date & time: March 14, 2026 – Prelims 07:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~08:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: March 13, 2026 – 08:00PM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Smith vs You Su-young.
Tale Of The Tape
Elijah Smith
You Su-young
Record
9-1-0
16-3-0 (2 NC)
Age
23
30
Height
5’9″
5’6″
Reach
71″
65″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
4.45
2.28
Striking Accuracy
47%
46%
Strikes Absorbed
3.40
1.96
Striking Defense
47%
70%
Takedowns
3.51
3.80
Takedown Accuracy
53%
47%
Takedown Defense
57%
66%
Submission Avg.
0.9
0.4
You Su-young’s 70% striking defense is the standout number in this matchup. He simply does not get hit, absorbing only 1.96 strikes per minute. Smith counters with superior striking volume, a 6-inch reach advantage and an elite 0.9 submission average. Both fighters are active wrestlers which sets up a compelling grappling battle.
Fighter Breakdown – Elijah Smith Analysis
Smith comes in with a 9-1-0 record as one of the more exciting young bantamweight prospects on the roster. The 23 year old is well-rounded across all areas that makes him a threat for anyone that is placed against him.
Strengths: Strong striking volume at 4.45 significant strikes per minute. Excellent takedown accuracy at 53%. Dangerous 0.9 submission average. 6 inch height and reach advantage creates distance management edge. 9-1 record at just 23 years old with significant upside remaining.
Weaknesses: Only 47% striking defense, a vulnerability against an experienced counter-fighter. 57% takedown defense is modest.Absorbs 3.40 strikes per minute, which is manageable but not elite. Limited UFC experience against a veteran with 22 professional fights.
Betting Angles: Smith by Decision (+120) is our primary play. Smith by KO/TKO (+360) offers solid value given his volume and reach advantages.
You Su-young comes in with a 16-3-0 record (2 NC) and an exceptional defensive profile that makes him difficult to finish. The 30 year old South Korean neutralizes offensive threats better than almost anyone at bantamweight.
Strengths: Elite 70% striking defense. Absorbs only 1.96 significant strikes per minute, suggesting exceptional ring craft and evasiveness. Strong takedown volume at 3.80 per fight. Experienced veteran at 22 professional fights against a 10-fight opponent.
Weaknesses: Very low striking output at 2.28 per minute. 66% takedown defense leaves him vulnerable to Smith’s 53% accuracy takedown game. Only 0.4 submission average against Smith’s 0.9 on the ground. Three-inch height and six-inch reach disadvantage. At 30 years old against a 23 year old, youth and athleticism are against him.
Betting Angles: You’s +200 moneyline offers value as a small chaos play given her defensive profile. You by Decision (+270) is worth a small stake if her counter-striking and wrestling keep the scorecards competitive.
Smith’s striking volume, reach advantage and takedown accuracy should allow him to control all three rounds without needing a finish. You’s 70% striking defense means Smith won’t walk him down easily, but his 6-inch reach advantage lets him work behind the jab at distance and accumulate strikes that You cannot match in return.
Smith’s 53% takedown accuracy against You’s 66% defense means some takedowns land, and his 0.9 submission average keeps him busy defending on the mat. At +120 (implied 45.5%), we project this outcome closer to 52-55%, making it a solid value play at plus money.
You’s 70% striking defense and 1.96 strikes absorbed per minute make him extremely difficult to finish. Smith’s 0.9 submission average is dangerous but You’s grappling awareness and 66% takedown defense limits his opportunities to work. This fight has all the hallmarks of a grinding three-round decision where both fighters are competitive but neither can pull the trigger on a finish.
At -225 (implied 69.2%), this is solid juice for a matchup where the defensive statistics strongly suggest the full fifteen minutes.
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Small stake only. Smith’s 4.45 strikes per minute behind a 6-inch reach advantage creates sustained pressure that even You’s elite defense may not fully absorb over three rounds. If You is forced to fight inside to close the reach gap, Smith’s power at close range becomes a real factor. At +360 (implied 21.7%), a small stake is warranted for the finishing scenario. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official Pick: Elijah Smith by Decision
We are backing Smith to use his reach, volume and wrestling to control this fight over three rounds and earn a decision victory. You will make it uncomfortable. His 70% striking defense means clean shots are hard to land and he will counter effectively in moments. But Smith’s physical advantages and superior offensive output across all disciplines should prove decisive on the scorecards.
Smith’s reach keeps the jab in You’s face throughout, his takedown accuracy puts her in danger on the mat periodically, and his submission average means he cannot rest when the fight goes to the ground. You’s experience and defensive intelligence keep this competitive, but Smith’s well-rounded attack is too much to handle over fifteen minutes for the 30 year old.
Smith moves to 10-1 and continues his ascent as one of the more complete young bantamweights in the division.
How to Bet UFC Vegas 114: Tips for This Card
Card Tips:
You Su-young’s 70% striking defense is the best defensive number among all prelim fighters.
Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund on the main card features the most extraordinary striking stat: Asplund’s 19.93 strikes per minute.
Myktybek Orolbai’s 5.48 takedowns per fight makes him the most wrestling-dominant fighter on the prelim card.
UFC Vegas 114 Fight Card
Main Card (10:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos — Featherweight bout, 5 rounds
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