UFC London’s main card features a welterweight clash between fan favorite Michael “Venom” Page and rising English prospect Sam Patterson. This 3-round main card bout pits one of MMA’s most creative strikers against a submission specialist with a perfect takedown accuracy record at the O2 Arena in London, England.
Page opens as a -185 favorite, with Patterson at +150 as the underdog. Here’s how we’re betting UFC London: Page vs Patterson, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC London
Weight class: UFC Welterweight bout
Fight length: 3-round main card bout
Date & time: March 21, 2026 – Main card start: 04:00 pm ET, walk time ~05:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: March 19, 2026 – 02:10 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Page vs Patterson.
Tale of the Tape
Michael Page
Sam Patterson
Record
24-3-0
14-2-1
Age
38
29
Height
6’3″
6’3″
Reach
79″
78″
Stance
Switch
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
2.39
3.89
Striking Accuracy
60%
43%
Strikes Absorbed
1.68
3.93
Striking Defense
57%
49%
Takedowns
0.23
1.39
Takedown Accuracy
16%
100%
Takedown Defense
66%
33%
Submission Avg.
0.0
2.8
This matchup tells two completely different stories. Page holds a commanding edge in striking accuracy at 60%, absorbs less than half the strikes Patterson does, and defends takedowns at 66%. Patterson counters with a 100% takedown accuracy in a small sample and a 2.8 submission average that makes every ground exchange a genuine threat.
Fighter Breakdown – Michael Page Analysis
Page comes in with a 24-3-0 record as one of the most visually distinctive strikers in MMA history. His unorthodox movement, precise timing, and highlight-reel finishes have made him one of the sport’s most marketable fighters.
Strengths: Elite 60% striking accuracy with creative unorthodox striking from switch stance. Exceptional damage avoidance. Solid 57% striking defense. Solid 66% takedown defense protects against Patterson’s primary finishing route. One-inch reach advantage. Home crowd at the O2 Arena will be firmly behind him. Veteran of 27 professional fights.
Weaknesses: At 38 years old against a 29-year-old, the age gap is the largest question mark in this fight across three rounds. Only 0.23 takedown average and 16% accuracy means he offers virtually nothing on the mat if the fight goes to the ground. His 0.0 submission average against Patterson’s 2.8 is an extreme mismatch if taken down.
Betting Angles: Page by KO/TKO (+210) is our primary play, offering excellent value on his most spectacular and historically likely finishing method. His -185 moneyline reflects a genuine edge but the method price is where the value lives on this board.
Patterson comes in with a 14-2-1 record as one of the most dangerous submission artists at welterweight. The 29-year-old Englishman has elite level wrestling precision when he chooses to engage. Fighting at home in front of the O2 crowd gives him a psychological edge that is particularly meaningful for a younger fighter still establishing his UFC identity.
Strengths: Extraordinary 2.8 submission average makes every takedown a finishing threat. 100% takedown accuracy. Higher striking volume at 3.89 per minute. At 29 years old against a 38-year-old, youth and conditioning are firmly on his side. Home crowd advantage at the O2.
Weaknesses: Only 43% striking accuracy means the majority of his volume output misses against a precise mover like Page. His 3.93 strikes absorbed per minute is dangerously high against Page’s precision. Only 49% striking defense leaves him exposed, His 33% takedown defense is alarming if the roles are reversed. His 14-2-1 record against Page’s 24-3-0 reflects a significant experience gap.
Betting Angles: Patterson by Submission (+440) is the most realistic upset path given his 2.8 submission average and Page’s 0.0 ground game. His +150 moneyline offers genuine value if his volume and youth wear Page down over three rounds.
Getting better than double your money on a fighter whose entire career identity is built around spectacular knockouts is exceptional structural value. Page’s 60% striking accuracy against Patterson’s 49% striking defense creates consistent opportunities for the clean, precise shots that Page converts into finishes.
His switch stance and unpredictable movement generate the kind of openings that orthodox opponents repeatedly fail to anticipate. At +210 (implied 32.3%), we project this outcome closer to 40-43%, making it outstanding value for the most likely method of victory for a fighter of Page’s profile.
Patterson’s 2.8 submission average and Page’s 0.0 ground game make every takedown a potential finish, while Page’s finishing power makes every clean exchange dangerous for Patterson’s 49% striking defense. Both paths to a stoppage are credible and well-supported by the numbers.
A fight that stays clean and goes to the scorecards requires Page to avoid the mat entirely and Patterson to survive Page’s striking unscathed for 15 minutes. The finishing probability from both sides makes the distance prop difficult to justify. At -166 (implied 62.4%), this is solid value for a fight with genuine finishing threats on both sides.
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Small stake only. Patterson’s 2.8 submission average is the single most dangerous number in this entire matchup. Page’s 0.0 submission defense experience and 16% takedown accuracy means if Patterson drags him to the mat and secures position, Page has shown no evidence of being able to survive.
If Patterson takes one or two early rounds on the scorecards and then secures a takedown at any point, the finish is there. At +440 (implied 18.5%), a small stake is fully justified for the path that Page’s ground game makes entirely plausible. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official Pick: Michael Page by KO/TKO
We are backing Page to use his elite striking precision and unorthodox movement to create the openings that his career has been built on and finish Patterson inside the distance. Patterson will make this complicated. His volume, his submission threat, and his youth give him genuine routes to victory that cannot be dismissed.
But 60% striking accuracy against 49% striking defense is a combination that Page has exploited his entire career. Patterson’s 3.93 strikes absorbed per minute suggests a fighter whose defensive habits will be tested severely by the kind of clean, precise shots Page lands at an elite rate. Page’s 66% takedown defense limits Patterson’s primary finishing avenue, and on the feet Page is simply the more dangerous and more accurate fighter.
The O2 crowd will roar for both fighters in what shapes up as one of the most entertaining bouts on the entire card. But Page’s striking precision, creative movement, and finishing instincts give him the edge in a fight that is unlikely to see the final bell. Page picks up the KO/TKO finish and adds another highlight reel moment to one of MMA’s most distinctive careers.
How to Bet UFC London: Tips for This Card
Card Tips:
Patterson’s 2.8 submission average against Page’s 0.0 ground game is the central matchup question — if Patterson gets Page to the mat, the finish is live at any moment.
Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan earlier on the card features a massive +360 underdog worth examining.
The main event between Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy is a legitimate undefeated vs undefeated title eliminator worth your attention at the top of the card.
UFC London Fight Card
Main Card (04:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy — Featherweight bout, 5 rounds
Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell Jr. — Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Michael Page vs Sam Patterson — Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Iwo Baraniewski vs Austen Lane — Light Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan — Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Kurtis Campbell vs Danny Silva — Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Prelims (01:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Mason Jones vs Axel Sola — Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Nathaniel Wood vs Losene Keita — Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Mario Pinto vs Felipe Franco — Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Mantas Kondratavičius vs Antonio Trocoli — Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Louie Sutherland vs Brando Peričić — Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Shem Rock vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady — Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Shanelle Dyer vs Ravena Oliveira — Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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