UFC London’s prelim card features a lightweight clash between Welsh veteran Mason Jones and unbeaten French prospect Axel Sola. This 3-round prelim bout pits a battle-tested UFC lightweight with elite takedown numbers against an undefeated southpaw with the best striking defense on the entire UFC London card at the O2 Arena in London, England.
Jones opens as a -125 favorite, with Sola at +105 as the underdog. This lightweight matchup is one of the most evenly priced bouts on the card. Here’s how we’re betting UFC London: Jones vs Sola, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC London
Weight class: UFC Lightweight bout
Fight length: 3-round prelim bout
Date & time: March 21, 2026 – Prelims start: 01:00 pm ET, walk time ~01:15 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: March 20, 2026 – 02:30 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Jones vs Sola.
Tale of the Tape
Mason Jones
Axel Sola
Record
17-2-0 (1 NC)
11-0-1
Age
30
28
Height
5’10”
6’2″
Reach
74″
74″
Stance
Orthodox
Southpaw
Sig. Strikes Landed
5.71
3.74
Striking Accuracy
41%
42%
Strikes Absorbed
4.47
2.74
Striking Defense
50%
75%
Takedowns
4.17
1.25
Takedown Accuracy
55%
25%
Takedown Defense
81%
0%
Submission Avg.
0.2
0.0
Jones brings elite takedown volume at 4.17 per fight with 55% accuracy, but runs directly into Sola’s 0% takedown defense. Sola counters with an extraordinary 75% striking defense, but Jones’s 81% takedown defense neutralizes his own wrestling threat in return.
Fighter Breakdown – Mason Jones Analysis
Jones comes in with a 17-2-0 record (1 NC) as one of Wales’s most experienced and durable lightweights. The 30-year-old orthodox fighter has built his career on a combination of high takedown volume and relentless forward pressure.
Strengths: Extensive UFC experience at 17-2 against quality lightweight competition. Elite 4.17 takedown average at 55% accuracy is the defining offensive weapon in this matchup. Strong 81% takedown defense. Higher striking volume at 5.71 per minute gives him an output edge on the feet. His 0.2 submission average adds a finishing dimension on the mat.
Weaknesses: Only 41% striking accuracy is a real liability on the feet. His 4.47 strikes absorbed per minute against Sola’s southpaw angles creates genuine danger in standing exchanges. His 50% striking defense is the weakest number on his tape against a fighter with 75% defensive efficiency. Four-inch height disadvantage against Sola limits his comfort in the pocket.
Betting Angles: Jones by Decision (+185) is our primary play, offering significant plus money on the most likely outcome for a takedown-dominant fighter over three rounds. His -125 moneyline reflects a genuine edge but the decision price is where the value lives on this board.
Sola comes in with an 11-0-1 record as one of France’s most intriguing unbeaten lightweight prospects. The 28 year old southpaw brings an unbeaten record across 12 professional fights, reflecting a fighter who has never been stopped or decisively beaten.
Strengths: Extraordinary 75% striking defense. Excellent damage avoidance at just 2.74 strikes absorbed per minute. Four-inch height advantage over Jones. Southpaw stance creates awkward angles for orthodox fighters. Unbeaten 11-0-1 record across 12 professional fights.
Weaknesses: His 0% takedown defense is the most alarming number on his tape by a considerable margin. Only 3.74 strikes landed per minute and 42% accuracy on the feet limits his offensive output. His 0.0 submission average gives him no finishing threat if the fight goes to the mat. His 1.25 takedown average at 25% accuracy adds little offensive wrestling value.
Betting Angles: Sola’s +112 moneyline is worth considering as a near even-money play if you believe his striking defense neutralizes Jones’s output on the feet. Sola by Decision (+250) offers real value if his 75% striking defense keeps him competitive in standing exchanges across three rounds.
Jones’s 4.17 takedowns per fight at 55% accuracy against Sola’s 0% takedown defense is the most lopsided grappling mismatch on the UFC London prelim card. Every takedown Jones secures is uncontested, and Sola’s complete inability to prevent them means control time accumulates on the scorecards throughout all three rounds.
At +185 (implied 35.1%), we project this outcome closer to 44-48%, making it outstanding value at a price that pays almost double for the most structurally supported result.
Jones’s 0.2 submission average tells you he grinds for control rather than chasing finishes on the mat, and Sola’s 75% striking defense makes a KO/TKO on the feet a significant ask even for a fighter with Jones’s output. Three rounds of Jones taking the fight down and controlling position while Sola defends and looks to work back to his feet is a decision waiting to happen.
At -160 (implied 61.5%), this is solid value for a prelim bout that has all the hallmarks of a grinding, tactical three-round war.
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Small stake only. Jones absorbs 4.47 significant strikes per minute against a southpaw with a four-inch height advantage and 75% striking defense. If Sola stuffs an early takedown attempt and creates distance, his southpaw power from height is live at any moment. At +430 (implied 18.9%), a small stake acknowledges the knockout threat that any southpaw with a height and reach advantage carries into every round. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official Pick: Mason Jones by Decision
We are backing Jones to use his elite takedown volume and uncontested grappling dominance to control enough of the fight across three rounds and earn a decision victory. Sola will make this uncomfortable on the feet. His 75% striking defense, southpaw angles, and four-inch height advantage give him genuine tools to compete in standing exchanges that Jones cannot afford to ignore.
But 4.17 takedowns per fight at 55% accuracy against 0% takedown defense is simply too much grappling volume for Sola to neutralize across three rounds. Jones will most likely secure takedowns in rounds one, two, and three at minimum, accumulating control time that tips close rounds in his favor on the scorecards. Sola wins the striking exchanges when standing as his defensive mastery and height are real advantages on the feet. But Jones’s ability to take the fight to the mat whenever he is being outworked on the feet is the difference across three competitive rounds.
This is a fight that could genuinely go either way if Sola finds his range and keeps Jones at distance. But the grappling mismatch is too significant to overlook, and in a close fight, numbers tend to win. Jones moves to 18-2 in a decision that confirms his place as one of the division’s most complete lightweights.
How to Bet UFC London: Tips for This Card
Card Tips:
Sola’s 0% takedown defense against Jones’s 4.17 takedown average at 55% accuracy is the central matchup question that determines this entire fight.
Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan on the main card features a massive +360 underdog worth examining.
The main event between Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy is a legitimate undefeated vs undefeated title eliminator worth your attention at the top of the card.
UFC London Fight Card
Main Card (04:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy — Featherweight bout, 5 rounds
Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell Jr. — Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Michael Page vs Sam Patterson — Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Iwo Baraniewski vs Austen Lane — Light Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan — Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Kurtis Campbell vs Danny Silva — Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Prelims (01:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Mason Jones vs Axel Sola — Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Nathaniel Wood vs Losene Keita — Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Mario Pinto vs Felipe Franco — Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Mantas Kondratavičius vs Antonio Trocoli — Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Louie Sutherland vs Brando Peričić — Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Shem Rock vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady — Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Shanelle Dyer vs Ravena Oliveira — Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
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