UFC Mexico’s prelim card opener features a welterweight clash between Surinamese knockout artist Damian Pinas and American submission specialist Wes Schultz. This 185-pound matchup is one of the most explosive style collisions on the entire card.
Pinas opens as a -275 favorite with Schultz at +220. Here’s how we’re betting UFC Mexico: Pinas vs Schultz, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props, and expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC Mexico
Weight class: UFC Middleweight bout
Fight length: 3-round prelim card fight
Date & time: Feb 28, 2026 – Preliminary card 5:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~05:10 p.m. ET
21+. AZ/CO/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA/MD/MA/MI/NJ/OH/PA/TN/ VA/WV/WY only. Offer not available in DC/MS/NV/NY/PR. New customers only. Qualifying deposit (min $10) and first real money wager required. If qualifying bet settles as a loss, user is refunded 100% in non-withdrawable bonus bets up to $1,500. Full T&Cs can be found on betmgm.com.
Odds updated: February 27, 2026 – 09:00 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Tale Of The Tape
Damian Pinas
Wes Schultz
Record
8-1
8-2
Age
23
29
Height
6’1″
6’1″
Reach
79″
77″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
9.62
5.39
Striking Accuracy
50%
46%
Sig. Strikes Absorbed
7.36
4.74
Striking Defense
45%
48%
Takedown Accuracy
0%
40%
Takedown Defense
0%
0%
Submission Avg.
0.0
1.4
Pinas lands 9.62 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy. Schultz counters with a 1.4 submission average and 5.57 takedowns per 15 minutes. Neither fighter has any takedown defense on record, meaning whoever initiates the grappling exchange first may well decide the outcome.
Fighter Breakdown – Damian Pinas Analysis
Pinas arrives at 8-1 as one of the most exciting young prospects on the UFC roster. The 23 year old Surinamese fighter is a pure striker with elite volume and the kind of finishing instinct that has bookmakers installing him as a significant favorite.
Strengths: 9.62 strikes per minute at 50% accuracy is the standout offensive number. At 23, he carries zero mileage and a fresh chin against a 29-year-old. 2-inch reach advantage. An 8-1 record reflects rapid development and finishing ability across multiple opponents.
Weaknesses: 45% striking defense and 7.36 strikes absorbed per minute are genuinely alarming. 0% takedown defense is the most exploitable number on his tape. Schultz averages 5.57 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Pinas has shown zero ability to prevent level changes. If Schultz gets him down, Pinas has no mat credentials whatsoever.
Betting Angles: The -275 moneyline offers limited straight value. Pinas by KO/TKO at -135 is the primary play.
Schultz arrives at 8-2 as an American grappler with genuine submission credentials. The 29-year-old’s submission average is high and his wrestling volume creates constant danger for a striker with zero takedown defense.
Strengths: 1.4 submission average is exceptional. 5.57 takedowns per 15 minutes at 40% accuracy gives him relentless offensive wrestling. 46% striking accuracy, he’s competitive enough on the feet to survive early exchanges. 48% striking defense marginally edges Pinas’s 45%, suggesting slightly better head movement.
Weaknesses: 0% takedown defense mirrors Pinas. Absorbs 4.74 strikes per minute against an opponent landing nearly 10 per minute. Two losses on his record suggest he’s been cracked before against elite competition.
Betting Angles: Schultz’s +220 moneyline carries genuine upset value given his grappling credentials. Schultz by Submission at +400 is the standout secondary prop.
Pinas landing 9.62 strikes per minute at 50% accuracy against a fighter absorbing 4.74 per minute creates inevitable early damage. The key insight is that Schultz needs time to initiate wrestling and Pinas’s volume denies him that time by producing sustained pressure from the opening bell.
Every exchange risks a clean power shot from a 23 year old with elite finishing instincts. At -135 (implied 57.4%), this slightly undervalues what we project as a 60-65% probability for this specific outcome.
The best secondary play on the board. Schultz’s 1.4 submission average against Pinas’s 0% takedown defense is the value prop for this fight. If Schultz survives the early striking storm and gets Pinas to the mat even once, the submission threat becomes immediate. At +400 (implied 20%), this significantly undervalues what we project as a 25-28% realistic probability.
Up to $300 Bonus Bets per day for 10 days (max $3,000 Bonus Bets total).
21+ and present in AZ/CO/CT/IA/IL/IN/KS/LA (permitted parishes only) /MA/MD/MI/NJ/NY/OH/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY. Minimum $10 first deposit required. Promotion Bonus will be credited to your account within 72 hours settlement of Qualifying Wager. First online real money wager only (minimum $5). Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expires in 14 days. Bonus bets and NFL Sunday Ticket code will be issued within 72 hours of bet placement. See full terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com.
Minimum stake only. Both fighters absorb significant damage regularly; Pinas at 7.36 and Schultz at 4.74 per minute. A scenario where both men trade furiously, hurt each other repeatedly, and survive through sheer toughness to a decision is genuinely possible in a matchup this volatile. At +500 (implied 16.7%), a 0.1- 0.5 unit bet is enough.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Damian Pinas by KO/TKO
We’re backing Pinas to land a clean combination, overwhelming Schultz’s striking defense with elite volume before the American’s grappling credentials can become the deciding factor.
We expect an immediate firefight from the opening bell. Pinas uses his 2 inch reach advantage to fire jabs and set up straight right hands while Schultz pushes forward looking to close distance and initiate level changes. The first sixty seconds see both men trade freely. Pinas’s output begins producing visible damage. Schultz attempts a takedown to reset, but Pinas circles away and counters with a sharp right hand.
We see the fight ending with a clean combination; a body shot followed by an overhand right drops Schultz. Pinas’s ground-and-pound forces the referee stoppage before Schultz can recover. This finish announces the 23-year-old to UFC fans in a spectacular fashion!
How to Bet UFC Mexico: Tips for This Card
Schultz must get Pinas down before the volume overwhelms him, and every second standing is a second where 9.62 strikes are flying.
The 12-year age gap between a 38 year old Erik Silva and 26 year old Francis Marshall becomes decisive in round three if this fight goes long.
Javier Reyes’s 8.29 strikes landed per minute against just 0.79 absorbed represents one of the most dominant offensive-to-defensive ratios on the entire card.
UFC Mexico Fight Card
Main Card (8:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Brandon Moreno vs Lee Kavanagh – Flyweight, 3 rounds
Marlon Vera vs Daniel Martinez – Bantamweight, 3 rounds
Daniel Zellhuber vs Kevin Green – Lightweight, 3 rounds
Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes – Flyweight, 3 rounds
Irin Rodriguez vs Karina Borjas – Women’s Flyweight, 3 rounds
Steven Luna vs Alex Pacheco – Bantamweight, 3 rounds
Prelims (5:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina – Middleweight, 3 rounds
Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson – Women’s Bantamweight, 3 rounds
Cristian Quinonez vs Kris Moutinho – Bantamweight, 3 rounds
Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaite – Catchweight, 3 rounds
Deni Silva de Andrade vs Javier Reyes – Bantamweight, 3 rounds
Edgar Silva vs Freddy Marshall – Middleweight, 3 rounds
William Schultz vs David Pinas – Welterweight, 3 rounds
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
mma 
