The Rivalry Heats Up: Sinner vs. Rublev at Roland Garros 2025 - Quarterfinal Spot on the Line
Top seed Jannik Sinner is set to face 17th seed Andrey Rublev in the fourth round of Roland Garros. Sinner has cruised through his matches with straight-set victories over Arthur Rinderknech, wild card Richard Gasquet, and Jiri Lehecka, showcasing his dominant form.
Rublev, meanwhile, has battled a bit more, defeating qualifier Lloyd Harris in four sets before a straight-sets win against Adam Walton, including two tiebreaks. He advanced to the fourth round without hitting the court, as Arthur Fils retired with a back injury in the third round.
Both players have shown strong performances at Roland Garros before. Sinner reached the semifinals last year, while Rublev made deep runs to the quarterfinals in 2020 and 2022. Now, either one of them will get the chance to break their best.
Sinner, world No. 1, has missed three months after his winning the 2025 Australian Open due to a clobetasol violation. Regardless, he made a comeback in Rome, advancing to the finals, but fell to Carlos Alcaraz. This being his only loss yet. With 72 aces, a dominant 76% of first-serve points won, and an outstanding 46% conversion on 116 break points, his stats are solid.
Rublev’s season has been a mix of highs and missed momentum. He bounced back from an early Australian Open exit with a semifinal in Open Occitanie and a title run in Doha, taking down Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alex de Minaur, and Jack Draper. A Hamburg final hinted at form, but a loss to Flavio Cobolli kept the rhythm off-beat. Stat line: 168 aces, 75% first-serve points won, 35% break point conversion on 193 looks.
Jannik Sinner leads their head-to-head against Andrey Rublev 6-3, but two of Rublev’s wins came when Sinner retired due to injury. Their first clash in Vienna in 2020 ended early as Sinner battled a foot injury, and in 2022 at Roland Garros, Sinner again retired mid-match with a knee issue. Rublev’s only full three-set victory came in 2024 at the Canadian Open.
Sinner’s six wins include key battles in 2021 Barcelona, 2022 Monte Carlo, 2023 Miami, 2023 Vienna, 2024 Melbourne, and most recently 2024 Cincinnati, where he came back from a set down to prevail. This rivalry has seen both grit and resilience, but Sinner’s edge remains clear.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Cincinnati | Quarterfinal | Jannik Sinner | 4-6 7-5 6-4 |
| 2024 | Canada | Quarterfinal | Andrey Rublev | 6-3 1-6 6-2 |
| 2024 | Australian Open | Quarterfinal | Jannik Sinner | 6-4 7-6(5) 6-3 |
| 2023 | Vienna | Semifinal | Jannik Sinner | 7-5 7-6(5) |
| 2023 | Miami | Round of 16 | Jannik Sinner | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2022 | Roland Garros | Round of 16 | Andrey Rublev | 1-6 6-4 2-0 RET |
| 2022 | Monte Carlo | Round of 16 | Jannik Sinner | 5-7 6-1 6-3 |
| 2021 | Barcelona | Quarterfinal | Jannik Sinner | 6-2 7-6(6) |
| 2020 | Vienna | Round of 16 | Andrey Rublev | 2-1 RET |
| Jannik Sinner | Category | Andrey Rublev |
| 1 | Ranking | 15 |
| 275-81 | Career W-L | 350-196 |
| 12-1 | YTD W-L | 15-12 |
| 19 | Career Titles | 17 |
| 3 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 1 | YTD Titles | 1 |
Sinner’s strong comeback and consistent form give him the edge over Rublev, whose flashes of brilliance are tempered by inconsistency. If Sinner keeps up his sharp serving and mental edge, he’s likely to finish with his seventh win, in their 10th meet, at Roland Garros.
Prediction: Jannik Sinner in straight sets
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The reigning Australian Open champion, Sinner, enters today’s match as a heavy favorite, with odds at 1/40, reflecting his dominant form and sharp baseline game at Roland Garros. Rublev, with odds at 13/1, has struggled to maintain momentum this season. Expect Sinner to control the match and book his place in the quarter-finals.
The betting odds according to BetMGM:
Jannik Sinner: 1/40
Andrey Rublev: 13/1
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