Quarterfinal test for Draper as Nakashima builds momentum
Second seed Jack Draper faces unseeded Brandon Nakashima today in the quarterfinals of the Queen’s Club Championships. The Brit has looked sharp, easing past Jenson Brooksby and rallying from a set down to beat Alexei Popyrin.
Nakashima, meanwhile, survived a tough three-set opener against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, featuring two tiebreaks. Then defeating wild card Dan Evans in straight sets, closing the second with another tiebreak.
Draper is in red-hot form this season, riding a surge that includes a title in Indian Wells, runner-up finishes in Doha and Madrid, and a Rome quarterfinal. He’s also reached the fourth round at both the Australian Open and Roland Garros, his best Slam results to date. The Brit has been serving big too, hammering 237 aces while winning 74% of first-serve points and converting 39% of break point chances.
Nakashima, on the other hand, has had a more uneven year. Still, he’s found rhythm at times, reaching the semifinals in Acapulco and Houston, along with quarterfinals in Delray, Bordeaux (Challenger), Stuttgart, and now London. While early exits have dotted his season, his numbers remain competitive before Queen’s: 244 aces, a 73% first-serve win rate, 29% on first-serve return points, and a solid 41% break point conversion across 184 chances.
Jack Draper and Brandon Nakashima are level at 1-1 in their head-to-head. Their rivalry began at the 2022 Next Gen ATP Finals, where Nakashima edged out Draper in four tightly contested sets, with a tiebreak concluding the match. But Draper hit back in 2024 on the grass courts of Stuttgart, dispatching the American in straight sets to even the score.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Stuttgart | Semifinal | Jack Draper | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 2022 | ATP Finals | Semifinal | Brandon Nakashima | 4-3(6), 1-4, 4-2, 4-3(5) |
| Jack Draper | Category | Brandon Nakashima |
| 6 | Current Ranking | 32 |
| 104-58 | Career W-L | 112-96 |
| 25-7 | YTD W-L | 17-16 |
| 3 | Career Titles | 1 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 1 | YTD Titles | 0 |
Draper’s strong season and consistent big-match play make him the clear favorite. Unless Nakashima finds a peak level, Draper should take this in straights.
Prediction: Jack Draper in straight sets
At 1/5, Draper is the heavy favorite. Nakashima at 7/2 offers upset value, but the odds reflect Draper’s dominant form. A straight-sets win is the likely outcome.
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Jack Draper: 1/5
Brandon Nakashima: 7/2
Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):
Total Games Over 22.5: 22/25
Total Games Under 22.5: 22/25
Total Games won by Draper Over 12.5: 13/25
Total Games won by Nakashima Over 10.5: 19/20
Total Sets Over 2.5: 17/10
Total Sets Under 2.5: 4/9
(All Odds According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
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