Fitness questions loom as Machac takes on Bublik
Fresh off a statement comeback win over world No. 1 Jannik Sinner, Alexander Bublik now turns his attention to seventh seed Tomas Machac in the Halle quarterfinals. The Kazakh kicked off his campaign with a straight-sets win over Alexandre Muller before taking out Sinner in dramatic fashion. Machac, meanwhile, battled past lucky loser Jesper de Jong in three sets and followed it up with a dominant performance against Fabian Marozsan.
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Bublik’s ATP season has been largely underwhelming, with just two main tour quarterfinals, at Roland Garros and Open Occitanie. Though Roland Garros QF in itself is an achievement, but still. He’s fared better on the Challenger circuit, claiming the Turin title after a runner-up finish in Phoenix. Powered by 263 aces and a 75% first-serve win rate, Bublik has also posted a solid 39% break point conversion, though his 25% return points on first serve leave room to improve.
Machac, meanwhile, started the year strong with a third-round run at the Australian Open, a Dallas quarterfinal, and a breakout title at the Mexico Open. But that momentum stalled due to illness and injuries, leading to retirements in Indian Wells, Miami, Geneva, and Roland Garros, and a withdrawal from Barcelona. Despite these setbacks, Machac’s stats remain impressive: 148 aces, 73% first-serve points won, and a sharp 46% break point conversion on 159 chances.
Alexander Bublik leads the head-to-head against Tomas Machac 1-0. Their only meeting came last year in Dubai, where Bublik rallied from a set down to win in three, sealing the match in a tense final-set tiebreak.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Dubai | Round of 32 | Alexander Bublik | 2-6, 6-3, 7-6(5) |
| Alexander Bublik | Category | Tomas Machac |
| 45 | Current Ranking | 23 |
| 163-164 | Career W-L | 65-50 |
| 11-14 | YTD W-L | 16-10 |
| 4 | Career Titles | 1 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 0 | YTD Titles | 1 |
Bublik’s firepower and recent Challenger form give him the edge, especially if his serve clicks. But if Machac is fully fit, his baseline consistency and sharper return game could trouble the Kazakh. Still, Bublik’s momentum and past win tilt the scales his way.
Prediction: Alexander Bublik in straight sets
Bublik is a slight favorite at 13/25, reflecting his recent title and head-to-head edge. Machac at 6/4 offers value if he’s fully healthy, but the odds rightly lean toward Bublik’s serve-dominant style and recent results.
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Alexander Bublik: 13/25
Tomas Machac: 6/4
Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):
Total Games Over 23.5: 22/25
Total Games Under 23.5: 22/25
Total Games won by Bublik Over 12.5: 8/15
Total Games won by Machac Over 12.5: 10/11
Total Sets Over 2.5: 6/5
Total Sets Under 2.5: 13/20
(All Odds According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
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