Top seed faces in-form lucky loser as both look to extend their grass-court momentum
Top seed Carlos Alcaraz will take on lucky loser Arthur Rinderknech in the quarterfinals of the Queen’s Club Championships. The Spaniard eased past fellow lucky loser Adam Walton in straight sets, needing a second-set tiebreak, before grinding out a three-set win over Jaume Munar in the Round of 16.
Rinderknech, for his part, has made the most of his second chance. He ousted sixth seed Ben Shelton in a pair of tiebreaks, then followed it up with a solid straight-sets victory over Reilly Opelka to book his spot in the quarters.
Alcaraz has been on a tear in 2025, lifting titles in Rotterdam, Monte Carlo, Rome, and Roland Garros. He also made the Barcelona final, the Indian Wells semis, and the quarterfinals in Melbourne and Doha. Barring a shock Miami loss to Goffin and a Madrid withdrawal, the Spaniard’s season has been nearly spotless, backed by 161 aces, 71% first-serve points won, and a 44% break-point conversion rate.
Rinderknech, meanwhile, has had a low-key run, with no appearances beyond the Round of 16. His best results came in Montpellier, Delray Beach, Aix-en-Provence, Geneva, and Stuttgart. While he’s served 164 aces and boasts a 73% first-serve win rate, his 30% break conversion shows the gap in big-match impact.
Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head against Arthur Rinderknech 2-0, with both wins coming in comeback fashion. Their first meeting came at the 2021 US Open, where Alcaraz dropped the opening set in a tiebreak before turning the match around. Their next encounter was on grass at the 2023 Queen’s Club, and once again, the Spaniard rallied from a set down to edge through.
Now, as they meet for a third time, once again on the lawns of Queen’s, Alcaraz arrives in the form of his life. He’s already claimed four titles this season, including his fifth Grand Slam crown at Roland Garros. With that kind of momentum, the question is, can Rinderknech offer more than just resistance?
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Queen’s Club | Round of 32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(3) |
| 2021 | US Open | Round of 64 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(6), 4-6, 6-1, 6-4 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | Category | Arthur Rinderknech |
| 2 | Current Ranking | 80 |
| 246-61 | Career W-L | 79-96 |
| 37-5 | YTD W-L | 5-15 |
| 20 | Career Titles | 0 |
| 5 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 4 | YTD Titles | 0 |
Given Alcaraz’s dominant season and two prior comeback wins over Rinderknech, the Spaniard is expected to stay in control. With his current form and grass adaptability, it’s hard to see Rinderknech pulling off the upset.
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets
At 1/12, Alcaraz is the overwhelming favorite against Rinderknech, who’s priced at 7/1. The odds reflect the gulf in form and record. This should be a routine win for the Spaniard, barring any surprises.
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Carlos Alcaraz: 1/12
Arthur Rinderknech: 7/1
Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):
Total Games Over 21.5: 4/5
Total Games Under 21.5: 19/20
Total Games won by Alcaraz Over 12.5: 5/4
Total Games won by Rinderknech Over 8.5: 3/4
Total Sets Over 2.5: 47/20
Total Sets Under 2.5: 8/25
(All Odds According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
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