The welterweight division has been home to countless legendary battles over the decades. But sometimes the most intriguing fights aren’t the title eliminators or grudge matches, but the simple clash of two seasoned warriors who have somehow never crossed paths. Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny represents exactly that type of fascinating encounter that makes longtime fans do a double take.
Both fighters joined the UFC back in 2014, meaning they have been sharing the same division for over a decade without ever meeting inside the octagon. Matthews has racked up 22 UFC fights while Magny has an incredible 35 appearances under the promotion’s banner, yet their careers have somehow never intersected until now. Finally, fans get to see these two veterans settle their business on the biggest stage in mixed martial arts.
Jake Matthews stands at 5’11” with a 73 inch reach. He lands 3.44 significant strikes per minute with 43% accuracy while absorbing just 2.63 strikes per minute thanks to solid 60% defensive positioning. His grappling adds serious depth to his game with 1.51 takedowns per fight and 0.6 submission attempts, showing he can threaten on multiple levels. At just 30 years old, he’s entering what should be his prime years with the experience to handle whatever Magny brings to the table.
Neil Magny (30-13) stands at 6’3″ with a massive 80 inch reach. However, recent performances have raised questions about whether the ‘father time’ is finally catching up with the 37 year old veteran. Magny lands 3.45 significant strikes per minute, nearly identical to Matthews, but has 46% accuracy. His takedown numbers are slightly higher at 2.15 per fight, though his 39% accuracy indicates he needs more attempts to find success. Most concerning for Magny are his defensive numbers: 51% striking defense and 55% takedown defense both lag behind Matthews’ marks.
The oddsmakers at FanDuel have installed Jake Matthews as a heavy favorite at -400. Meanwhile, Neil Magny comes in as a +285 underdog. Those odds reflect not just the skill gap but also the age and recent form disparity between these fighters.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -110. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-116) reflect that.
This matchup comes down to whether Neil Magny can turn back the clock and rediscover the form that made him one of the division’s most active and dangerous fighters. His recent struggles suggest that father time might be catching up, but writing off a veteran with his experience would be foolish. The size advantage could prove crucial if he can keep Matthews at range and avoid prolonged exchanges in the pocket.
Matthews should focus on pressuring early and often, using his youth and conditioning advantages to break down Magny over time. His clinch work and inside fighting could neutralize Magny’s reach advantage. His submission threat adds another layer of danger that the veteran will need to respect. The key for Matthews will be avoiding the long range striking battles where Magny’s length becomes a significant factor.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Jake Matthews to win via unanimous decision.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Jason da Silva – Imagn Images)
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