The bantamweight division has become one of the UFC’s most talent-rich weight classes. This 135-pound division has historically been unkind to newcomers, with legends like Dominick Cruz and current champions like Merab Dvalishvili all experiencing growing pains during their early UFC careers. The difference between success and failure often comes down to how quickly fighters can adapt. Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa focus on two promising bantamweights who learned harsh lessons during their octagon debuts
These two now face the pressure of proving those setbacks were just temporary stumbles. Both fighters arrived in the UFC with impressive regional records and high expectations, only to discover that reputation means nothing once that cage door closes. This UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes matchup represents a crucial bounce-back opportunity where the winner can rebuild momentum while the loser faces questions about whether they are truly ready for this level of competition.
Colby Thicknesse stands at 5’7” with a 69 inch reach. His 7-1 record doesn’t fully capture his potential, though his UFC debut against Aleksandre Topuria exposed several areas needing immediate improvement. He lands just 2.53 significant strikes per minute with 29% accuracy while absorbing 2.73 strikes with poor 48% striking defense.
Thickness has a complete absence of takedown attempts in his one UFC competition despite his wrestling background. He has a 50% takedown defense though. His biggest challenge remains putting together complete performances rather than relying on individual moments of brilliance.
Josias Musasa stands at 5’8 with a 74 inch reach. ‘The KO Wizard’ lived up to his nickname throughout his 8-1 regional career, but his submission loss to Carlos Vera showed vulnerabilities that his opponents will surely try to exploit. He lands 3.45 significant strikes per minute with solid 43% accuracy while absorbing a dangerous 4.60 strikes with just 28% striking defense.
His 77% takedown defense and occasional offensive wrestling attempts averaging 0.82 per fight give him more tactical options than his opponent. However, his submission loss suggests his ground game remains a work in progress.
The oddsmakers have made up their mind about this match. According to FanDuel, they have installed Josias Musasa as a moderate favorite at -156. Meanwhile, Colby Thicknesse carries appealing +130 underdog odds that might represent genuine value.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +112. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-142) reflect that.
This bantamweight clash favors Josias Musasa despite his recent stumble against Carlos Vera. His physical advantages, superior striking output, and proven finishing ability should overwhelm Thicknesse’s awkward but limited skill set.
While the Australian might find brief success with his unorthodox movement, Musasa’s southpaw stance and reach advantage create serious problems that Thicknesse hasn’t solved at this level. But, the Australian has Alexander Volkanovski in his corner, and that might play a major role in this matchup.
If we bet on the fight, we are going against the odds and betting on Colby Thicknesse to win via unanimous decision.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Gary A. Vasquez – Imagn Images)
mma 
