UFC 325’s early prelims feature a pure striking battle between Sebastian Szalay and Keiichiro Nakamura. This featherweight showcase pits the Australian striker against the Japanese volume puncher in what promises to be a technical stand-up war. The bout takes place at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.
Szalay brings home-country advantage and superior defensive metrics as he looks to continue his undefeated run. Nakamura enters with higher offensive output and southpaw angles. Szalay opens as a -140 favorite, with Nakamura at +115 as a slight underdog.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC 325: Szalay vs Nakamura, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC 325 – Qudos Bank Arena
Weight class: UFC Featherweight bout
Fight length: 3-round early prelim bout
Date & time: Saturday, January 31, 2026 – Early prelims 5:30 p.m. ET, walk time ~6:15 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: January 29, 2026 – 9:15 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Szalay vs Nakamura.
Tale Of The Tape
Sebastian Szalay
Keiichiro Nakamura
Record
10-1
7-1
Age
30
26
Height
5’6″
5’10”
Reach
66″
70″
Stance
Orthodox
Southpaw
Sig. Strikes Landed
4.25
5.22
Striking Accuracy
44%
43%
Takedowns
0.00
0.00
Takedown Defense
84%
83%
Submission Avg.
0.0
0.0
Nakamura holds advantages in striking volume, height, and reach. Szalay counters with superior striking defense, significantly lower damage absorption, marginally better takedown defense, and home-country advantage. The southpaw vs orthodox matchup favors Nakamura’s angles, but Szalay’s defensive metrics suggest a patient counter-striking approach.
Fighter Breakdown – Sebastian Szalay Analysis
Szalay comes in with a 10-1 record and represents one of Australia’s emerging featherweight prospects. The 30 year old is a defensive specialist who relies on counter-striking and technical precision rather than volume.
Strengths: Elite striking defense (71%) limits clean shots landed. Exceptional damage avoidance. Strong takedown defense (84%) keeps fights standing. Home-country advantage fighting in Sydney. Patient counter-striker who capitalizes on mistakes. Experience with 11 total fights.
Weaknesses: Massive height (4 inches) and reach (4 inches) disadvantage creates range problems. Lower striking volume suggests defensive approach. Never attempts takedowns, making him one-dimensional. Poor striking accuracy shows inefficient shot selection. Limited finishing ability, no submissions, minimal knockouts. Faces southpaw angles that create defensive complications.
Betting Angles: Szalay’s -140 moneyline offers minimal value despite home advantage. Szalay by Decision (+240) is our best bet given his defensive approach and Nakamura’s durability. Fight goes the distance (+130) appeals given both fighters’ lack of finishing ability.
Nakamura brings a 7-1 record with volume striking and aggressive pressure. The 26 year old Japanese fighter is a southpaw specialist who overwhelms opponents with output rather than precision.
Strengths: Superior striking volume (5.22 per minute) controls pace. Massive 4 inch height and reach advantage creates range control. Young at 26 years old. Southpaw stance creates awkward angles for orthodox opponents. Strong takedown defense (83%) keeps fights standing. Solid striking defense. Well-rounded record (7-1) shows consistency.
Weaknesses: High damage absorption despite volume output. Poor striking accuracy shows inefficient shot selection. Never attempts takedowns (0.00 average) makes him one-dimensional. No submission threat whatsoever (0.0 attempts). Limited UFC experience. Faces elite defensive specialist who limits damage.
Betting Angles: Nakamura’s +115 moneyline offers value for his physical advantages and volume approach. Nakamura by KO/TKO (+270) provides value if his volume breaks Szalay. Nakamura by Decision (+480) represents longshot given Szalay’s defensive skills.
Best Bets For Sebastian Szalay vs Keiichiro Nakamura
Szalay’s defensive metrics should neutralize Nakamura’s volume approach. Fighting at home in Sydney provides additional motivation and crowd support. While Nakamura’s 4-inch height and reach advantage creates problems, Szalay’s patient counter-striking and superior defensive awareness should accumulate points over three rounds.
Neither fighter has finishing ability, making a decision likely. At +240 (implied 29.4%), we project this outcome closer to 40%, offering exceptional value as Szalay grinds out a technical hometown decision.
This pure striking matchup between two fighters with zero submission attempts and minimal knockout power should reach the judges. Szalay absorbs just 1.27 strikes per minute with 71% defense, while Nakamura’s 66% defense keeps him safe enough.
Neither fighter attempts takedowns, eliminating ground-and-pound finish paths. The technical nature of both fighters; Szalay’s counter-striking versus Nakamura’s volume suggests a point-fighting battle rather than violent exchanges. At +130 (implied 43.5%), we project this goes three rounds around 60% of the time.
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Small stake only. Nakamura’s 5.22 strikes per minute and 4 inch reach advantage could eventually overwhelm Szalay’s defense. If the volume accumulates and Szalay’s body tires, late-round finish opportunities emerge. Nakamura’s southpaw angles create openings against orthodox opponents, and a clean shot could drop the defensive-minded Australian.
Szalay’s low offensive output (4.25 per minute) means he may not build enough lead to survive late adversity. At +270 (implied 27%), this offers solid payout if Nakamura’s pressure breaks through. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Sebastian Szalay by Unanimous Decision
We are backing Szalay to secure a unanimous decision victory, likely 29-28 on all scorecards in a close technical battle. The Australian’s superior defensive skills and home-country advantage should prove decisive despite Nakamura’s physical advantages and volume approach.
We see Szalay winning rounds 1 and 3 with effective counter-striking, capitalizing on Nakamura’s 43% accuracy and using his elite 71% striking defense to avoid damage while landing cleaner shots. Nakamura should steal round 2 with sustained volume (5.22 per minute), using his 4 inch reach advantage to pepper Szalay from distance and control the pace.
As the fight progresses, Szalay’s exceptional damage avoidance should keep him fresh while Nakamura’s volume approach yields diminishing returns against elite defense. This victory will continue Szalay’s undefeated run and positions him for a ranked opponent next.
How to Bet UFC 325: Tips for This Card
Beyond this featherweight striking battle, UFC 325 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
Szalay’s 71% striking defense and 1.27 strikes absorbed per minute are elite-level stats. Against volume strikers, superior defense often wins technical decisions.
Tai Tuivasa’s streak can’t be ignored. Five straight knockout losses with deteriorating defense makes him extremely vulnerable. Don’t bet on nostalgia or home-country advantage against superior opponent.
Diego Lopes showed improved striking against Jean Silva with spinning elbow knockout. His evolution makes him dangerous, but nine months may not be enough time to close the gap against Alexander Volkanovski.
UFC 325 Fight Card
Main Card (09:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs Diego Lopes – UFC Featherweight Championship, 5 rounds
Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Tai Tuivasa vs Tallison Teixeira – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Quillan Salkilld vs Jamie Mullarkey – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Prelims (7:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Justin Tafa vs Billy Elekana – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Cam Rowston vs Cody Brundage – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jacob Malkoun vs Torrez Finney – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Early Prelims (5:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Kaan Ofli vs Yi Zha – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Kim Sang-wook vs Dom Mar Fan – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Sulangrangbo vs Lawrence Lui – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Aaron Tau vs Namsrai Batbayar – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
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