UFC 325’s prelims feature a welterweight clash between Jonathan Micallef and Oban Elliott. This compelling matchup pits the Australian striker against the Welsh grappler in what promises to be a technical battle of contrasting styles. The bout takes place at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.
Micallef brings home-country advantage and volume striking as he looks to continue his impressive 8-1 run. Elliott enters with superior defensive metrics and wrestling credentials. Micallef opens as a -135 favorite, with Elliott at +110 as a slight underdog.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC 325: Micallef vs Elliott, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC 325 – Qudos Bank Arena
Weight class: UFC Welterweight bout
Fight length: 3-round prelim bout
Date & time: Saturday, January 31, 2026 – Prelims 7:30 p.m. ET, walk time ~7:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: January 30, 2026 – 4:20 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Micallef vs Elliott.
Tale Of The Tape
Jonathan Micallef
Oban Elliott
Record
8-1
12-3
Age
25
27
Height
6’0″
6’0″
Reach
77″
72″
Stance
Southpaw
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
4.77
3.50
Striking Accuracy
43%
48%
Takedowns
0.83
1.70
Takedown Defense
50%
55%
Submission Avg.
0.8
0.0
Micallef holds advantages in striking volume, reach, age, and submission threats. Elliott counters with superior striking accuracy, striking defense, significantly lower damage absorption, better takedown offense, and experience. The southpaw vs orthodox matchup favors Micallef’s angles, but Elliott’s defensive metrics reveal his patient counter-striking approach.
Fighter Breakdown – Jonathan Micallef Analysis
Micallef comes in with an 8-1 record representing Australia’s welterweight division. The 25 year old is a volume striker from southpaw stance.
Strengths: Superior striking volume overwhelms opponents. Massive 5 inch reach advantage creates range control. Southpaw stance creates awkward angles for orthodox opponents. Young at 25 years old. Submission threat (0.8 attempts) adds finishing dimension. Solid striking defense (58%). Efficient takedown accuracy (50%) despite low volume.
Weaknesses: High damage absorption despite reach advantage. Poor striking accuracy shows inefficient shot selection. Lower experience (9 total fights). Faces superior striker in Elliott. Minimal wrestling offense (0.83 attempts) limits grappling threat.
Betting Angles: Micallef’s -135 moneyline offers minimal value despite home advantage. Micallef by Decision (+195) is our best bet given both fighters’ durability. Fight goes the distance (-182) appeals given defensive approaches.
Elliott brings a 12-3 record with technical striking and solid wrestling credentials from Wales. The 27 year old nicknamed “The Welsh Gangster” is a well-rounded fighter with excellent defensive metrics.
Strengths: Superior striking accuracy (48%) with efficient shot selection. Exceptional striking defense limits clean shots. Outstanding damage avoidance, absorbs only 2.24 strikes per minute. Better takedown offense and defense. Experience with 15 total fights. Well-rounded skillset without major holes.
Weaknesses: Lower striking volume suggests counter-striking approach. Massive 5 inch reach disadvantage creates range problems. No submission threat whatsoever (0.0 attempts). Faces southpaw angles that create defensive complications. Takedown accuracy only 44% despite attempts means inefficient wrestling.
Betting Angles: Elliott’s +110 moneyline offers value for his superior defensive metrics and experience. Elliott by Decision (+200) provides value if his defense neutralizes Micallef’s volume. Fight goes the distance (-182) aligns with both fighters’ technical approaches.
Micallef’s superior striking volume, 5 inch reach advantage, and southpaw angles should accumulate points over three rounds in front of his home crowd. While Elliott possesses better defensive metrics, Micallef’s relentless output create scoring opportunities.
Neither fighter has explosive finishing ability; Micallef’s 0.8 submission attempts rarely produce taps, and Elliott has zero submission game. Elliott’s counter-striking approach yields lower volume, potentially losing rounds to judges favoring activity. At +195 (implied 33.9%), we project this outcome closer to 40%, offering good value as Micallef grinds out a decision.
This welterweight matchup between two defensively-aware fighters should reach the judges. Elliott’s exceptional damage avoidance and 60% striking defense keep him safe, while Micallef’s 58% defense and reach advantage prevent Elliott’s counters from accumulating.
Neither fighter attempts submissions frequently, eliminating that finish path. The striking exchanges will be measured and technical rather than violent. At -182 (implied 64.5%), we project this goes 3 rounds around 70% of the time.
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Small stake only. Elliott’s superior striking accuracy, striking defense, and experience create a path to upset the home favorite. If his counter-striking neutralizes Micallef’s volume and the judges reward cleaner shots over activity, Elliott steals rounds.
The 1.70 takedowns per fight could secure control time in close rounds. At +200 (implied 33.3%), this offers solid payout for a competitive fight that could go either way. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Jonathan Micallef by Unanimous Decision
We are backing Micallef to secure a unanimous decision victory on all scorecards in a close battle. The Australian’s superior striking volume, reach advantage, and home-country support should prove decisive despite Elliott’s better defensive metrics.
We see Micallef winning rounds 1 and 3 with sustained volume, using his 5 inch reach advantage and southpaw angles to pepper Elliott from distance. Elliott should steals round 2 with cleaner, more accurate strikes, capitalizing on Micallef’s defensive lapses.
As the fight progresses, Micallef’s youth and range carry him through competitive exchanges. We see the judges reward Micallef’s activity and aggression in a closely-contested decision that delights the hometown crowd. This victory continues Micallef’s rise in the welterweight division and positions him for tougher competition.
How to Bet UFC 325: Tips for This Card
Beyond this welterweight technical showcase, UFC 325 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
Reach advantages matter. Micallef’s 5 inch reach edge creates significant range problems. Physical tools matter more at welterweight with speed and length.
Tai Tuivasa’s streak can’t be ignored. Five straight knockout losses with deteriorating defense makes him extremely vulnerable. Don’t bet on nostalgia or home-country advantage against superior opponent.
Micallef’s 4.77 volume at 43% accuracy vs Elliott’s 3.50 at 48% creates classic judging question. Activity typically wins.
UFC 325 Fight Card
Main Card (09:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs Diego Lopes – UFC Featherweight Championship, 5 rounds
Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Tai Tuivasa vs Tallison Teixeira – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Quillan Salkilld vs Jamie Mullarkey – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Prelims (7:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Justin Tafa vs Billy Elekana – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Cam Rowston vs Cody Brundage – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jacob Malkoun vs Torrez Finney – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Early Prelims (5:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Kaan Ofli vs Yi Zha – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Kim Sang-wook vs Dom Mar Fan – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Sulangrangbo vs Lawrence Lui – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Aaron Tau vs Namsrai Batbayar – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
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