UFC 325’s early prelims kick off with a flyweight clash between Aaron Tau and Namsrai Batbayar. This opening bout pits the New Zealand striker against the Mongolian grappler in what promises to be a classic striker vs grappler battle. The bout takes place at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.
Tau brings striking volume and switch-stance versatility while Batbayar enters with youth and grappling credentials. Batbayar opens as a narrow -125 favorite, with Tau at +105 as a slight underdog. This fight represents a crucial opportunity for both flyweights to make a statement on the Australian card.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC 325: Tau vs Batbayar, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC 325 – Qudos Bank Arena
Weight class: UFC Flyweight bout
Fight length: 3-round early prelim opener
Date & time: Saturday, January 31, 2026 – Early prelims 5:30 p.m. ET, walk time ~5:30 p.m. ET
21+ and present in AZ/CO/CT/IA/IL/IN/KS/LA (permitted parishes only) /MA/MD/MI/NJ/NY/OH/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY. Minimum $10 first deposit required. Promotion Bonus will be credited to your account within 72 hours settlement of Qualifying Wager. First online real money wager only (minimum $5). Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expires in 14 days. Bonus bets and NFL Sunday Ticket code will be issued within 72 hours of bet placement. See full terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com.
Odds updated: January 30, 2026 – 1:05 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Tau vs Batbayar.
Tale Of The Tape
Aaron Tau
Namsrai Batbayar
Record
11-1
9-1
Age
31
25
Height
5’4″
5’4″
Reach
66″
68″
Stance
Switch
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
4.85
3.50
Striking Accuracy
44%
39%
Takedowns
0.89
2.15
Takedown Defense
64%
0%
Submission Avg.
0.0
1.1
Tau holds advantages in striking volume, striking accuracy, striking defense, and takedown defense. Batbayar counters with superior takedown offense, dangerous submission game, and 2 inch reach advantage. The switch-stance vs orthodox matchup favors Tau’s versatility, but Batbayar’s grappling creates a nightmare stylistic matchup.
Fighter Breakdown – Aaron Tau Analysis
Tau comes in with an 11-1 record representing New Zealand’s flyweight division. The 31 year old is a volume striker with switch-stance capabilities and solid defensive awareness.
Strengths: Superior striking volume (4.85 per minute) overwhelms opponents. Better striking accuracy (44%) and defense (60%). Switch stance creates unpredictable angles and setups. Experience with 12 total fights. Solid takedown defense (64%) against average wrestlers. Low damage absorption rate.
Weaknesses: Poor takedown defense against elite grapplers. Age 31 with accumulated wear. High damage absorption (5.00 per minute) despite volume suggests willingness to trade. No submission threat whatsoever (0.0 attempts). Minimal wrestling offense (0.89 attempts at 18% accuracy). Faces nightmare matchup against grappler with 2.15 takedowns per fight. Never faced opponent with Batbayar’s submission credentials.
Betting Angles: Tau’s +105 moneyline offers value if his striking volume overwhelms before wrestling takes over. Tau by KO/TKO (+270) provides value for early knockout. Tau by Decision (+380) requires his 64% takedown defense to hold for three rounds.
Batbayar brings a 9-1 record with elite grappling credentials from Mongolia. The 25 year old is a submission specialist with dangerous ground game and youth advantage.
Strengths: Elite takedown offense (2.15) controls where fight takes place. Dangerous submission game (1.1). 2-inch reach advantage despite identical height. Superior damage avoidance. Solid 9-1 record shows consistency. Orthodox stance provides clean lanes.
Weaknesses: Terrible 0% takedown defense. Lower striking volume and poor accuracy (39%). Horrible striking defense (45%) leaves chin exposed. Takedown accuracy only 25% despite attempts means inefficient wrestling. Limited high-level experience. Never faced volume striker like Tau.
Betting Angles: Batbayar’s -125 moneyline offers minimal value despite grappling advantages. Batbayar by Submission (+430) is our best bet given Tau’s limited ground game. Batbayar by KO/TKO (+310) offers longshot value if striking improves.
Batbayar’s 2.15 takedowns per fight and 1.1 submission attempts against Tau’s 64% takedown defense and zero submission game creates inevitable grappling exchanges where the Mongolian dominates. Once Batbayar secures a takedown, Tau’s complete lack of submission defense becomes exploitable.
Batbayar has shown finishing ability with submissions, and Tau’s 0% takedown defense means he’s been controlled on the ground before. At +430 (implied 18.9%), we project this outcome closer to 30%, offering exceptional value as a realistic finish path.
Both fighters show finishing ability: Tau with volume striking (4.85 per minute) creating knockout opportunities and Batbayar with submissions (1.1 attempts). Tau’s high damage absorption (5.00/ min) makes him vulnerable to both knockouts and submissions, while Batbayar’s poor striking defense (45%) keeps him exposed.
The striker vs grappler dynamic typically produces finishes rather than decisions. At -225 (implied 69.2%), we project this finishes around 75% of the time, making it solid bankroll-builder value.
21+ and present in AZ/CO/CT/IA/IL/IN/KS/LA (permitted parishes only) /MA/MD/MI/NJ/NY/OH/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY. Minimum $10 first deposit required. Promotion Bonus will be credited to your account within 72 hours settlement of Qualifying Wager. First online real money wager only (minimum $5). Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expires in 14 days. Bonus bets and NFL Sunday Ticket code will be issued within 72 hours of bet placement. See full terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com.
Small stake only. Tau’s 4.85 strikes per minute and switch-stance versatility could catch Batbayar early before the grappling takes over. Batbayar’s horrible 45% striking defense and poor 39% accuracy make him vulnerable to volume strikers.
If Tau stuffs early takedown attempts with his 64% defense and keeps the fight standing in round 1, his output could produce an early knockout. At +270 (implied 27%), this offers solid payout if Tau’s striking dominates before wrestling becomes factor. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Namsrai Batbayar by Submission
We are backing Batbayar to secure a submission victory, overwhelming Tau with persistent wrestling before finding a finish. The Mongolian grappler’s youth, submission credentials, and relentless approach should prove decisive despite Tau’s striking advantages.
We see Tau establish his striking volume from switch stance in round 1, using his versatility to land clean combinations. Batbayar absorbs damage but secures his first takedown midway through the round. On the ground, Batbayar controls position and attempts submissions, but the fresh Tau should survive to the bell.
Round 2 begins with a fatigued Tau as Batbayar’s youth and conditioning shine through as he secures another takedown. This time, the Mongolian advances position more efficiently, moving to create a submission attempt, forcing Tau to tap. This victory should announce Batbayar as a legitimate flyweight grappling threat and positions him for tougher competition.
How to Bet UFC 325: Tips for This Card
Beyond this flyweight grappling showcase, UFC 325 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
Takedown defense matters. Tau’s 64% defense against Batbayar’s 2.15 attempts creates competitive grappling exchanges. When defenses are below 70%, expect takedowns to eventually land.
Stylistic matchup still favors grappler. Despite Hooker’s improvements, Saint-Denis’ 4.33 takedowns per fight creates massive volume advantage. History shows relentless grapplers eventually break through.
As the card opener, both fighters may show nerves or come out overly aggressive. Expect early action and potential quick finish.
UFC 325 Fight Card
Main Card (09:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs Diego Lopes – UFC Featherweight Championship, 5 rounds
Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Tai Tuivasa vs Tallison Teixeira – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Quillan Salkilld vs Jamie Mullarkey – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Prelims (7:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Justin Tafa vs Billy Elekana – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Cam Rowston vs Cody Brundage – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jacob Malkoun vs Torrez Finney – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Early Prelims (5:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Kaan Ofli vs Yi Zha – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Kim Sang-wook vs Dom Mar Fan – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Sulangrangbo vs Lawrence Lui – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Aaron Tau vs Namsrai Batbayar – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
mma 
