UFC 324’s bantamweight prelim headliner features Umar Nurmagomedov taking on former two-time flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo in a critical divisional bout. Nurmagomedov looks to rebound from his first career loss to Merab Dvalishvili for the title, while Figueiredo seeks a signature win to crack the top five at 135 pounds. This 3-round prelim main event could determine the next title challenger in the stacked bantamweight division.
Nurmagomedov brings a 19-1 record with recent wins over Mario Bautista and Cory Sandhagen before losing his title bid. Figueiredo enters with a 25-5-1 record and a recent split decision victory over Montel Jackson after consecutive losses to Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen. Nurmagomedov is around a -1600 favorite with Figueiredo at roughly +850 as a massive underdog.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC 324: Nurmagomedov vs Figueiredo, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC 324 – T-Mobile Arena
Weight class: Bantamweight bout
Fight length: 3-round prelim main event
Date & time: Saturday, January 24, 2026 – Prelims 7:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~8:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: January 22, 2026 – 1:25 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Nurmagomedov vs Figueiredo.
Tale Of The Tape
Umar Nurmagomedov
Deiveson Figueiredo
Record
19-1
25-5-1
Age
30
38
Height
5’8″
5’5″
Reach
69″
68″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
4.08
2.75
Striking Accuracy
57%
54%
Takedowns
4.30
1.71
Takedown Defense
79%
57%
Submission Avg.
0.3
1.3
Nurmagomedov holds massive advantages in youth, height (3 inches), takedowns, and takedown defense. Figueiredo’s submission average (1.3) is higher but his 57% takedown defense will be severely tested. The striking differential also favors Nurmagomedov in both volume and accuracy. This matchup heavily favors the Dagestani grappler.
Fighter Breakdown – Umar Nurmagomedov Analysis
Nurmagomedov comes in with a 19-1 record including victories over Cory Sandhagen, Mario Bautista and Raoni Barcelos. The 30 year old Russian is ranked #2 in the UFC bantamweight division and suffered his first loss in a title fight against Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 311.
Strengths: Elite wrestling and chain grappling from Dagestani sambo background. Exceptional takedown rate with 47% accuracy. Strong striking defense and accuracy. Never been finished in 20 professional fights. Championship-level cardio. Excellent fight IQ and cage control. Coming off 5-round experience in title fight.
Weaknesses: First loss could affect confidence. Only submission average of 0.3 suggests finishing struggles on the ground. Faced heavy wrestling pressure from Dvalishvili in title fight. First fight after title loss carries pressure to prove himself. Can be patient to a fault.
Betting Angles: Nurmagomedov’s -1600 moneyline is extremely steep with no value. Nurmagomedov by Decision (-120) is our primary play given his style. Fight goes the distance also appeals as he rarely finishes opponents.
Figueiredo brings a 25-5-1 record with recent wins over Montel Jackson, Marlon Vera and Cody Garbrandt. The 38 year old Brazilian is a former two-time UFC flyweight champion who moved up to bantamweight in 2023 and is ranked #6 in the division.
Strengths: Former two-time UFC champion with massive experience. Dangerous submission game. Knockout power with 7 career KOs. Strong offensive grappling when opportunity arises. Championship pedigree and mental toughness. Never quits even as underdog.
Weaknesses: Age 38 with significant mileage from two title reigns. Poor takedown defense against elite wrestlers. Lost 2 of last 3 fights including TKO loss to Sandhagen. Smaller frame moving up from flyweight. Lower striking volume. Facing younger, bigger opponent.
Betting Angles: Figueiredo’s +850 moneyline offers lottery ticket value for his submission threat. Figueiredo by Submission (+3000) is the only realistic upset path. His finishing ability makes this dangerous despite massive underdog status.
Best Bets For Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo
Nurmagomedov wins this fight but likely doesn’t finish the durable former champion. Figueiredo has only been stopped twice in 31 professional fights and possesses excellent submission defense and survival instincts from championship experience. Nurmagomedov’s low finishing rate suggests he controls but doesn’t submit Figueiredo. We see Nurmagomedov dominating with takedowns and top control for three rounds, winning a clear decision. At -120 (implied 54.5%), we think this hits closer to 65%, offering solid value even at minus money.
Both fighters have excellent durability. Nurmagomedov rarely finishes opponents while Figueiredo has championship-level toughness and escape ability. The Brazilian’s submission defense keeps him safe on the ground, while his own submission threat prevents Nurmagomedov from taking excessive risks. At -146 (implied 59.3%), we think this goes the distance around 70% of the time.
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Small stake only. While extremely unlikely, Figueiredo has 9 career submission wins including finishes of elite fighters like Alex Perez, Joseph Benavidez, and Cody Garbrandt. If Nurmagomedov gets overconfident in the grappling exchanges, Figueiredo’s guillotine or rear-naked choke could catch him. This offers massive payout for a very specific but unlikely scenario. Keep stakes at 0.25 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Umar Nurmagomedov by Unanimous Decision
We are backing Nurmagomedov to dominate Figueiredo over three rounds, winning a lopsided unanimous decision. The Dagestani’s elite wrestling should neutralize Figueiredo’s striking and submission game, securing takedowns in all three rounds and controlling position.
Figueiredo’s toughness should keep him in the fight. However, Nurmagomedov’s size, youth, and grappling superiority should prove overwhelming. This performance should allow Nurmagomedov to rebound from his title loss and position him for another run at the title.
How to Bet UFC 324: Tips for This Card
Beyond the Nurmagomedov-Figueiredo bout, UFC 324 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
Nurmagomedov’s -1600 moneyline offers zero value. Method-of-victory and round props provide better opportunities to find edge.
Figueiredo is the ultimate live underdog. His submission threat and championship experience make in-play betting valuable if the fight stays competitive.
Dagestani wrestlers like Nurmagomedov excel in decision victories. Fight goes the distance and Nurmagomedov by Decision both offer parlay value.
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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