UFC 326 delivers a compelling bantamweight prelim clash between former champion Cody Garbrandt and Chinese rising star Xiao Long. This 135-pound matchup pits a legendary knockout artist trying to recapture past glory against a high-volume striker with elite output and a significant reach advantage.
Xiao Long opens as a -158 favorite, with Garbrandt at +124. Here’s how we’re betting UFC 326: Garbrandt vs Xiao Long, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props, and expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC 326 – T-Mobile Arena
Weight class: UFC Bantamweight bout
Fight length: 3-round prelim card fight
Date & time: Date & time: Mar 7, 2026 – Prelims 7 PM ET, walk time ~8:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: March 4, 2026 – 10:00 PM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Tale Of The Tape
Cody Garbrandt
Xiao Long
Record
14-7
27-10
Age
34
27
Height
5’8″
5’8″
Reach
65″
70″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
2.88
5.25
Striking Accuracy
39%
46%
Sig. Strikes Absorbed
3.64
4.20
Striking Defense
59%
50%
Takedown Accuracy
27%
25%
Takedown Defense
83%
79%
Submission Avg.
0.0
0.0
Xiao Long’s 5.25 strikes per minute at 46% accuracy dwarfs Garbrandt’s 2.88 at 39%, and his 5 inch reach advantage compounds this. Garbrandt’s saving grace is his 59% striking defense and his legendary knockout power that makes him dangerous on a single shot regardless of output disadvantage.
Fighter Breakdown – Cody Garbrandt Analysis
Garbrandt arrives at 14-7 as one of the most recognizable names in bantamweight history. The 34 year old former champion possesses elite one-shot knockout power, but his career trajectory since losing the title has been defined by durability questions that remain unresolved.
Strengths: His elite knockout power is genuine. His 59% striking defense leads this matchup and his 83% takedown defense is excellent. Fighting as the underdog with nothing to lose brings out the best version of Garbrandt historically.
Weaknesses: His 2.88 strikes per minute is low output. At 39% accuracy, his precision has declined from his championship peak. Seven losses at 34 years old. Absorbs 3.64 strikes per minute, compounding deficit over three rounds.
Betting Angles: Garbrandt’s +124 moneyline is genuinely attractive for a former champion. Garbrandt by KO/TKO at +400 carries real value. His entire betting case rests on landing before volume overwhelms him.
Xiao Long comes in at 27-10 as a 27 year old Chinese fighter with a massive professional record and statistical advantages across every meaningful offensive category.
Strengths: His 5.25 strikes per minute at 46% accuracy leads this matchup. A 5-inch reach advantage. At 27, he holds a 7-year age advantage with significantly less wear. His 79% takedown defense is solid and keeps this fight standing.
Weaknesses: Absorbs 4.20 strikes per minute. His 50% striking defense means Garbrandt’s 39% accuracy still produces clean connections. Ten losses on a 27-fight record suggest he’s been cracked before at this level. His 0 submission average and modest 25% takedown accuracy mean grappling offers him no path to a finish.
Betting Angles: The –145 moneyline offers limited straight value. Xiao Long by Decision at +175 on FanDuel is the standout play. The fight going the distance at -146 has value as a supporting play given Xiao Long’s output-over-finishing style.
Xiao Long’s 5.25 strikes per minute at 46% accuracy against a 39% accurate, low-output opponent is a reliable decision-winning formula over three rounds. Garbrandt’s knockout power keeps Xiao Long honest, but a disciplined volume fighter who manages distance effectively should outpoint a slower, less active opponent comfortably.
At +175 (implied 36.4%), this significantly undervalues what we project as a 40-45% probability for this specific outcome.
Despite Garbrandt’s knockout reputation, his recent output numbers suggest he’s no longer the explosive pressure fighter who won the title. Xiao Long’s 50% striking defense and range management should allow him to survive any dangerous moments and control the distance throughout.
At -146 (implied 59.3%), this offers reasonable value for the most probable outcome in a matchup between two fighters who prefer to stay upright.
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Minimum stake only. Garbrandt’s right hand remains elite and Xiao Long absorbs 4.20 strikes per minute with a 50% striking defense. One clean overhand right in a phone booth exchange ends this fight instantly regardless of everything else on the tape.
At +400 (implied 20%), a 0.1 to 0.5-unit flier covers the scenario where Garbrandt’s legendary power produces a career highlight finish.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Xiao Long by Unanimous Decision
We’re backing Xiao Long to outwork Garbrandt over three rounds, using his reach and volume advantage to accumulate clean scorecard damage while respecting the former champion’s knockout threat throughout.
We expect a cautious opening from Xiao Long as Garbrandt’s power demands respect. The Chinese fighter will use his 5-inch reach advantage to maintain distance and fire combinations from range. Garbrandt should look for the right hand counter early, landing occasional clean shots that remind everyone his power hasn’t abandoned him. We see round one as competitive but edges to Xiao Long on volume.
Rounds two and three see Xiao Long’s conditioning and output pull ahead as Garbrandt’s low 2.88 strikes per minute leaves him trailing on every scorecard. His 59% striking defense prevents catastrophic damage, but it can’t manufacture the scoring activity he needs. We see Xiao Long manage the knockout threat professionally and bank a clear unanimous decision win.
How to Bet UFC 326: Tips for This Fight
Xiao Long’s 5.25 strikes per minute versus Garbrandt’s 2.88 is a nearly 2-to-1 output advantage.
Holloway’s 7.46 strikes per minute at 57% accuracy represents the most prolific striking output at lightweight. If Oliveira cannot close distance and initiate grappling early, Holloway’s volume buries him.
Caio Borralho enters as a favorite against Reinier de Ridder. His wrestling-heavy style and physical dominance have made him one of the most reliable favorites in the middleweight division.
UFC 326 Fight Card
Main Card (Paramount+)
Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira – Lightweight, 5 rounds
Caio Borralho vs Reinier de Ridder – Middleweight, 5 rounds
Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr. – Bantamweight, 3 rounds
Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson – Lightweight, 3 rounds
Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira – Middleweight, 3 rounds
Prelims (Paramount+)
Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long – Bantamweight, 3 rounds
Donte Johnson vs Cody Brundage – Middleweight, 3 rounds
Ricky Turcios vs Alberto Montes – Featherweight, 3 rounds
Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel – Flyweight, 3 rounds
Early Prelims (Paramount+)
Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar – Flyweight, 3 rounds
Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay – Light Heavyweight, 3 rounds
JeongYeong Lee vs Gaston Bolanos – Featherweight, 3 rounds
Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato – Light Heavyweight, 3 rounds
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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