UFC 324’s first fight of the Paramount+ era features undefeated prospect Ty Miller making his UFC debut against veteran welterweight Adam Fugitt in a crucial early prelim clash. Miller earned his contract with a striking clinic on Dana White’s Contender Series in August 2025, while Fugitt looks to snap a brutal knockout loss and salvage his UFC career.
Miller brings a perfect 6-0 record (1 NC) with 2 knockouts and a recent unanimous decision win on Contender Series. Fugitt enters with a 10-5 record but comes off a devastating first-round knockout loss. Miller is around a -450 favorite with Fugitt at roughly +340 as a significant underdog.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC 324: Miller vs Fugitt, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC 324 – T-Mobile Arena
Weight class: Welterweight bout
Fight length: 3-round early prelim fight
Date & time: Saturday, January 24, 2026 – Early Prelims 5:30 p.m. ET, walk time ~05:45 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: January 23, 2026 – 12:50 PM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Miller vs Fugitt.
Tale Of The Tape
Ty Miller
Adam Fugitt
Record
6-0 (1 NC)
10-5
Age
25
36
Height
6’2″
6’1″
Reach
77″
77″
Stance
Orthodox
Southpaw
Sig. Strikes Landed
5.60
4.59
Striking Accuracy
34%
46%
Takedowns
0.00
1.83
Takedown Defense
50%
50%
Submission Avg.
0.0
0.0
Miller holds advantages in youth and striking volume. Fugitt counters with better accuracy and offensive wrestling. Both have identical reach and identical takedown defense at 50%. The orthodox vs southpaw dynamic creates angles for both fighters. Miller’s high-volume approach contrasts with Fugitt’s more measured, technical striking game.
Fighter Breakdown – Ty Miller Analysis
Miller comes in with a perfect 6-0 record (1 NC) including a spectacular unanimous decision victory over Jimmy Drago on Dana White’s Contender Series in August 2025 to earn his UFC contract. The 25 year old from Albuquerque trains at Fit NHB.
Strengths: Elite striking volume with relentless pace. Long 6’2″ frame with rangy style creates distance problems. High school wrestling background provides takedown defense and scrambling. Undefeated professional record builds confidence. Young and physically fresh at age 25. Never been past round two in his career, showing finishing instinct.
Weaknesses: Making UFC debut with only 56 minutes of total cage time in seven fights. Low striking accuracy (34%) suggests inefficiency despite volume. Untested cardio beyond two rounds. Never faced opponent with Fugitt’s experience (15 professional fights). Can be overeager hunting finishes. First time facing southpaw wrestler in UFC.
Betting Angles: Miller’s -450 moneyline is quite expensive. Miller by KO/TKO (-115 ) offers the best value given his finishing rate and Fugitt’s recent knockout loss. Fight doesn’t go the distance appeals given both men’s finishing tendencies.
Fugitt brings a 10-5 record but enters on a brutal first-round knockout loss to Islam Dulatov at UFC 318 in July 2025. The 36 year old from Oregon is a former X1 World Events champion and brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with an extensive Muay Thai background.
Strengths: Veteran UFC experience with five octagon appearances. Dangerous Muay Thai credentials with good leg kicking game. Strong wrestling base from high school (1.83 TD/15min). Brown belt BJJ provides submission threat. Durable when not caught clean. Southpaw stance creates awkward angles.
Weaknesses: Age 36 with significant mileage from 15 professional fights. Coming off devastating first-round knockout loss that raises major chin questions. UFC record of 2-3 with losses to Dulatov, Malott, and Morales. Poor takedown defense (50%) despite wrestling background. Hasn’t finished opponent since February 2023.
Betting Angles: Fugitt’s +360 moneyline offers lottery ticket value for upset potential. Fugitt by Decision (+900) is the most realistic path if his experience and grappling frustrate the debuting Miller. His wrestling could neutralize Miller’s striking volume if he commits to takedowns.
Miller’s explosive striking and Fugitt’s compromised chin create a perfect knockout scenario. Fugitt was brutally knocked out by Islam Dulatov in round one at UFC 318, showing clear defensive vulnerabilities. Miller finished two of six pre-UFC opponents and displayed devastating power on Contender Series.
His high-volume approach should overwhelm Fugitt’s technical but lower-output game. While Miller’s accuracy is low, quantity eventually finds quality against aging chins. At -115 (implied 53.5%), we think this hits closer to 65%, offering solid value as the most likely finish method.
Neither fighter specializes in decisions. Miller has never seen round three in his career, finishing or being finished in all seven professional fights. Fugitt’s last three UFC appearances produced two first-round finishes (losses to Dulatov and Morales) and one decision (win over Quinlan). The finishing rates and Fugitt’s chin deterioration suggest someone gets stopped. At -215 (implied 68.3%), we think this finishes around 75% of the time, making it slight value for parlay building.
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Small stake only. Fugitt’s veteran experience and wrestling could frustrate the debuting Miller if he survives early onslaught. Miller has never been tested past two rounds, and Fugitt’s cardio proved superior in his decision win over Quinlan. If Fugitt can weather Miller’s early storm and implement a wrestling-heavy gameplan, his experience and BJJ brown belt could steal later rounds. Keep stakes at 0.25 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Ty Miller by KO/TKO Round 2
We are backing Miller to stop Fugitt midway through the second round. Miller’s youth, volume and power should overwhelm Fugitt’s technical striking in round one. We see the Albuquerque fighter push pace early, landing combinations that accumulate damage on Fugitt’s compromised chin. Fugitt should survive round one using veteran movement and clinch work, but the accumulated damage takes its toll.
In round 2, Miller lands a body kick followed by punches that drop Fugitt, forcing a referee stoppage. This performance announces Miller as a legitimate welterweight prospect. For Fugitt, the loss likely marks the end of his UFC run at age 36 with a 2-4 octagon record.
How to Bet UFC 324: Tips for This Card
Beyond the Miller-Fugitt welterweight opener, UFC 324 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
This is the first fight of the Paramount+ era, adding extra pressure and spotlight. Expect both fighters to push for finishes to make history.
Arnold Allen’s 18-month layoff is the longest of his UFC career. Ring rust could be a factor against an explosive finisher like Jean Silva.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta’s recent form (3 first-round finishes in last 4) indicates he’s peaking at the right time. His method-of-victory props offer better value than straight moneyline.
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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