Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane represents the new movement for the heavyweight division. Aspinall had spent months watching Jon Jones duck and weave. Now the Englishman finally gets his chance to prove he’s the best heavyweight on the planet. His opponent is Ciryl Gane, the French striker who’s been here before and knows exactly what championship pressure feels like. This UFC 321 main event drops Saturday in Abu Dhabi, and it’s the fight that should have happened months ago.
The tale of the tape tells an interesting story between these two giants. Aspinall stands 6’5″ with a 78 inch reach and brings a 15-3 record into this title defense. His striking lands at an impressive 67% accuracy while absorbing just 2.89 significant strikes per minute. He has never been taken down in the UFC with a 100% takedown defense.
Gane measures in slightly shorter at 6’4″ but actually holds a reach advantage at 81 inches. His 13-2 record shows experience, though his grappling numbers tell the real story. Just 25% takedown accuracy and 43% takedown defense compared to Aspinall’s perfect stats.
Aspinall has spent the last year training with a chip on his shoulder. Every time Jones found another reason to delay their inevitable meeting, Aspinall got sharper, meaner, and more focused. Gane brings the technical striking that made him a contender. His Muay Thai background gives him fluid movement and precision kicks. The problem is that he needs this fight to stay standing, and Aspinall is very comfortable on the ground.
If Aspinall closes the gap and gets his hands on the Frenchman, it’s over. Aspinall’s wrestling base combined with his black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu creates a nightmare matchup. Expect the champion to pressure early, force Gane to the cage, and finish this fight on the ground.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Tom Aspinall to win via submission.
The latest betting lines show Tom Aspinall opening as a heavy favorite. According to FanDuel, Aspinall is a heavy favorite at -500. Meanwhile, Ciryl Gane sits as the underdog at +340. The odds reflect what fans and oddsmakers already suspect about Aspinall’s speed, power, and well-rounded game, making him dangerous for anyone.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +480. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-800) reflect that.
Here are some of the best bets for Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane fight at UFC 321:
This is the smartest play. Fans get plus money while covering the six most likely minutes of this fight. Aspinall finishes early, and this bets gives fans flexibility without laying too much on the moneyline.
Fans are getting plus odds on what everyone expects to happen. Aspinall’s grappling dominance and finishing ability against Gane’s weak takedown defense (43%) makes an early stoppage almost inevitable. This cashes if the fight ends in rounds 1 or 2.
If fans want a third bet with bigger upside, take Aspinall Round 1 at nearly 2 to 1 odds. His aggression, track record and Gane’s ring rust point to a quick finish.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Wendell Cruz – Imagn Images)
mma I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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