2025-26 NBA Guide-Portland Trail Blazers

Trail Blazers Taking Steps Upwards

In the ever-competitive Western Conference, the Portland Trail Blazers entered the 2024–25 season with modest expectations. It was their second year without Damian Lillard, the franchise’s longtime leader and cornerstone. However, Portland managed to exceed expectations, showing real growth and reasons for optimism heading into next season.

The Blazers finished 12th in the West with a 36–46 record, ahead of teams like the San Antonio Spurs, who added star guard De’Aaron Fox at the trade deadline. They even tied with the star-studded Phoenix Suns, featuring Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal.

Interestingly, Portland’s season could be divided into two very different halves. During the first two months, they struggled mightily, ranking sixth in total losses (19) with just nine wins, a disappointing 32% win rate. The turning point came on January 19, when a win over the Chicago Bulls snapped a five-game losing streak.

From that moment on, the Blazers caught fire, winning 10 of their next 11 games, their only loss coming against the eventual champion Oklahoma City Thunder. From that point forward, Portland played .561 basketball, the 14th-best mark in the league. At one point, they even flirted with a Play-In spot before ultimately falling short.

A major key to that turnaround was defense. During their hot streak, the Blazers boasted the third-best defensive rating in the NBA, trailing only the Thunder and the surprising Toronto Raptors. That strong finish earned head coach Chauncey Billups a well-deserved multi-year contract extension, a remarkable turnaround for a coach whose job had seemed in jeopardy after three underwhelming seasons.

Offseason Moves and Analysis

After emerging as one of the pleasant surprises of 2024–25, Portland made some of the league’s most unexpected moves during the offseason. The first deal came even before free agency officially began. The Blazers involved in a trade with the Boston Celtics that sent Anfernee Simons to Boston in exchange for Jrue Holiday.

Simons had been an important piece in recent years, but his development had plateaued. With his contract nearing its end, the front office clearly had no plans to offer a major extension. Holiday’s acquisition, on the other hand, represents a “return” of sorts. Though technically traded to Portland once before (as part of the Damian Lillard deal), he never played a game for them, later landing in Boston and becoming a crucial part of their 2024 championship run.

In a stunning twist, Damian Lillard himself also returned to Portland. After tearing his Achilles tendon during the playoffs, Milwaukee waived him using the “stretch provision,” spreading his salary over five years. Rather than joining a title contender on a veteran deal, Lillard signed a three-year, $41.6 million contract with the Blazers. Although he won’t play this upcoming season, his leadership and presence were celebrated by fans across Oregon.

Holiday’s arrival adds even more defensive grit and veteran leadership to an already sturdy defensive unit. The concern, however, lies in the finances. Lillard will earn $14 million without playing, and Holiday is still owed $104 million through 2027–28, when he’ll be 37.

The Blazers currently project as one of the top five teams in cap space for the following offseason. Still, they’ll soon have to plan extensions for Toumani Camara, Shaedon Sharpe, and likely Scoot Henderson, all while paying Jerami Grant $34.2 million annually through 2027–28.

Other notable moves include acquiring Blake Wesley from the Spurs, who quietly improved last year, while parting ways with Deandre Ayton. The 2018 No. 1 pick never lived up to expectations and was eventually waived, later signing with the Lakers. His departure opens the door for sophomore Donovan Clingan to take over the starting center role.

Portland also drafted one of the most talked-about prospects of 2025- Yang Hansen, a 7’1″ center from China dubbed the “Chinese Jokic” for his vision and passing ability. Selected 16th overall despite second-round projections, Hansen impressed during Summer League play. While offensively gifted, he’ll need to make major strides defensively to realize his full potential.

Expectations From Trail Blazers in Next Season

It would be shocking if Portland’s defense isn’t among the NBA’s top 10 in 2025–26. The group proved its potential late last season and it only got stronger with Holiday’s arrival and Ayton’s exit.

The team’s ceiling, however, depends largely on its half-court offense. Last season, the Blazers ranked ninth-worst in offensive efficiency, and the loss of Anfernee Simons, who was responsible for roughly 17% of the team’s total points, leaves a major void. At this stage, Jrue Holiday isn’t likely to fill that scoring gap.

That puts added pressure on Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe. Avdija was instrumental in the team’s resurgence last season, averaging 23.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists after the All-Star break. Sharpe also saw his productivity spike during that stretch, posting 21.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game.

Given the depth of the Western Conference, a playoff berth remains a long shot. Still, competing for a Play-In Tournament spot is a realistic and meaningful goal. If the offense can simply reach league-average levels, the Blazers could be one of next season’s most intriguing dark horses.

Player to Watch: Scoot Henderson

All eyes will be on Scoot Henderson as he enters a pivotal third season. With increased responsibility and leadership expectations, 2025–26 will serve as a make-or-break year for the young point guard.

The No. 3 pick in the 2023 Draft has watched many of his classmates, including Victor Wembanyama, Brandon Miller, Amen Thompson, and Cason Wallace, progress faster. Last season, Henderson’s minutes (26.7 per game) and production dipped slightly, though he did improve his three-point accuracy (from 32.5% to 35.4%) and steals.

This year, he’s expected to reclaim a full-time starting role, learning from two elite mentors: Lillard, one of the franchise’s all-time greats and an offensive master, and Holiday, a two-time champion and defensive specialist. Henderson has all the tools. Now it’s up to him and the coaching staff to make them work.

Work Needed on Three-Point Shooting

The Blazers’ Achilles heel last season was perimeter shooting. They ranked fifth-worst in three-point percentage and 11th-lowest in made threes. Unsurprisingly, their top marksman was Anfernee Simons, averaging 3.1 makes per game, many of them unassisted or off the dribble.

Replacing that production won’t be easy. Shaedon Sharpe, while prolific, shot a career-worst 31.1% from deep. Jerami Grant also regressed, dropping from consecutive 40% seasons to just 36.5%. Holiday hit 35.3% last year after a career-best 42.9% during Boston’s title run.

The Blazers have several players capable of bouncing back from deep, but if they don’t, the team could struggle badly to generate consistent offense.