UFC Rio brings another flyweight battle that could steal the show on Saturday. Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll features two young fighters desperate to shake off debut losses. Both men entered the UFC with serious hype behind them after dominant regional runs. Then reality hit hard, as the Octagon has a funny way of humbling even the most confident prospects.
The flyweight division continues to be a proving ground for hungry athletes chasing their dreams. Rocha came in riding a six-fight win streak before Clayton Carpenter submitted him last October. Nicoll arrived undefeated at 8-0 before Jesus Aguilar caught him with a guillotine choke. These setbacks sting, but they also provide valuable lessons about UFC-level competition. Now both fighters get the chance to rebound in front of a raucous Brazilian crowd!
Lucas Rocha brings a 17-2 record, standing at 5’3″ with a 64 inch reach. His striking output sits at 2.00 significant strikes per minute with 44 % accuracy. He absorbs 4.48 strikes per minute, which is way too high for any division. His striking defense of 39% means he’s getting hit clean far too often. Rocha hasn’t attempted a single takedown in his UFC appearance so far, showing zero interest in grappling. His takedown defense of 61% is decent but nothing special against wrestlers.
Stewart Nicoll enters at 8-1, standing 5’5″ with a 65 inch reach, giving him slight size advantages. His striking is more active at 3.02 significant strikes per minute with better 47% accuracy. He only absorbs 1.13 strikes per minute as his striking defense sits at 40%. Where Nicoll really shines is wrestling, averaging 5.66 takedowns per fight with perfect 100 % accuracy in the UFC. That’s an insane stat, though it’s based on limited sample size. His takedown defense is at zero, but he’s only faced one attempt so far.
The bookmakers are treating this as an absolute coin flip between two evenly matched fighters. According to FanDuel, Lucas Rocha opens at -116 on the moneyline. Meanwhile, Stewart Nicoll sits at -102, essentially even money for the Australian underdog. These razor-thin odds reflect genuine uncertainty about who wins, making this a tough betting proposition.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +158. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-205) reflect that.
Rocha will want to keep this standing and throw bombs until someone drops. Nicoll will want to drag this to the mat and control position while hunting submissions. Rocha’s defensive liabilities remain his biggest concern against anyone with decent volume striking. He absorbs way too many clean shots, which could pile up quickly against Nicoll’s output. However, Rocha’s power gives him that puncher’s chance in every exchange. One clean counter left hook could end Nicoll’s night before the wrestling even matters.
Nicoll’s wrestling credentials and perfect takedown accuracy present serious problems for Rocha’s one dimensional approach. If Nicoll can drag this fight to the canvas early, he controls the pace entirely. Rocha’s zero takedown attempts in the UFC suggest he’s uncomfortable there, which Nicoll will absolutely exploit.
If we bet on the fight, we are going against the grain with Stewart Nicoll to win via unanimous decision.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Joe Camporeale – Imagn Images)
mma 
