This weekend’s card features a striking battle that could steal the show. The Lucas Almeida vs Michael Aswell fight starts off the main card. Both men need wins badly after recent setbacks threatened their UFC futures.
Almeida recently missed weight before dropping a split decision to Danny Silva in March. Missing weight never looks good and often signals problems with a fighter’s discipline or weight cut. His UFC run has been inconsistent at best. Aswell, meanwhile, gained notoriety for his absolute war with Bogdan Grad on Dana White’s Contender Series. Despite landing more strikes, he lost that decision and didn’t receive a UFC contract immediately. He finally got his chance in May but lost a decision to Bolaji Oki at lightweight. Now he’s back at featherweight where his body naturally belongs.
Lucas Almeida stands 5’11” tall with a 71 inch reach. He lands 4.94 significant strikes per minute with 39% accuracy. He absorbs 5.04 strikes per minute, which is actually higher than his output. That negative differential means opponents hit him more than he hits them. His 44% striking defense is alarmingly low for someone hoping to climb rankings.
Almeida averages no takedowns per fight with 0% accuracy. His 53% takedown defense is mediocre but won’t matter much against another pure striker. His submission average also reads zero, confirming this fight will stay standing.
Michael Aswell (10-3) stands 5’8″ with a 69 inch reach. He lands an insane 9.10 significant strikes per minute with 44% accuracy. To put that in perspective, the current UFC leader in strikes per minute is Joshua Van at 8.86. Aswell absorbs 7.93 strikes per minute, which is extremely high even for his aggressive style. His 54% striking defense is better than Almeida’s 44%, but still allows too much damage.
Like Almeida, Aswell shows zero grappling ability. No takedown attempts, 0% accuracy, and 57% takedown defense that slightly edges Almeida’s 53%. His submission average also reads zero.
According to FanDuel, Michael Aswell sits as -150 favourite. Meanwhile, Lucas Almeida returns at +118 underdog. Those odds reflect Aswell’s youth and momentum despite his recent loss.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -136. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is lower and the odds (+108) reflect that.
Almeida’s two inch reach advantage and superior height give him distance control options. When Aswell rushes forward throwing combinations, Almeida can step back and fire counters. The Brazilian also carries legitimate knockout power that could end Aswell’s aggressive charges abruptly.
Aswell’s volume will keep rounds competitive, but Almeida’s counters and power shots should score higher with judges. Both men have decent chins and the cardio to maintain pace for fifteen minutes.
If we bet on the fight, we are going against the grain with Lucas Almeida winning by unanimous decision.
(Image Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie – Imagn Images)
mma I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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