$1,500
UFC Houston’s featherweight prelim features veteran Jordan Leavitt making his 145-pound debut against undefeated Cuban prospect Yadier del Valle in a compelling grappler’s showcase. This 3-round bout pits Leavitt’s unorthodox submission game and UFC experience against del Valle’s explosive finishing instincts and unblemished 10-0 record.
Del Valle opens as a -425 favorite, with Leavitt at +320 as the underdog. Here’s how we’re betting UFC Houston: Leavitt vs. del Valle, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Event: UFC Houston
Weight class: UFC Featherweight bout
Fight length: 3-round prelim bout
Date & time: February 21, 2026 – Prelims 05:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~05:35 p.m. ET
Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Best Bet: del Valle by Submission (+280)
Book: Best price at BetMGM/FanDuel
Our best bet is del Valle by submission at +280. Below, we’ll break down the matchup and key props.
Here are the latest odds from top sportsbooks.
| Market | BetMGM | FanDuel | Best Odds |
| Moneyline | Leavitt +320 / del Valle -425 | +310 / -420 | Leavitt +320 (BetMGM) |
| Fight Goes Distance | +175 | +176 | +176 (FD) |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | -250 | -230 | -230 (FD) |
| Total Rounds O/U 1.5 | Over -145 / Under +112 | Over -142 / Under +112 | Under +112 (BetMGM/FD) |
| del Valle by KO/TKO | +150 | +170 | +170 (FD) |
| del Valle by Submission | +280 | +280 | +280 (BetMGM/FD) |
| del Valle by Decision | +300 | +330 | +330 (FD) |
| Leavitt by KO/TKO | +2200 | +2200 | +2200 (BetMGM/FD) |
| Leavitt by Submission | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 (BetMGM/FD) |
| Leavitt by Decision | +650 | +550 | +550 (FD) |
Odds updated: February 20, 2026 – 10:30 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Leavitt vs. del Valle.
| Tale Of The Tape | Jordan Leavitt | Yadier del Valle |
| Record | 12-3 | 10-0 |
| Age | 30 | 29 |
| Height | 5’9″ | 5’9″ |
| Reach | 71″ | 69″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Sig. Strikes Landed | 2.49 | 6.25 |
| Striking Accuracy | 61% | 67% |
| Strikes Absorbed | 1.79 | 2.87 |
| Striking Defense | 57% | 52% |
| Takedowns | 2.92 | 2.08 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 30% | 42% |
| Takedown Defense | 30% | 75% |
| Submission Avg. | 1.3 | 3.5 |
Identical height and stance make this a pure stylistic battle. Del Valle’s 3.5 submission average vs. Leavitt’s 1.3, and 75% vs. 30% takedown defense, are the defining numbers.
Leavitt enters 12-3, returning to featherweight after his entire UFC run at lightweight. He most recently earned a performance bonus submitting Kurt Holobaugh with an anaconda choke in 99 seconds.
Strengths: Unorthodox submission game featuring inverted triangles and anaconda chokes that confuse opponents. UFC experience (5-3) against elite grapplers including Claudio Puelles, Chase Hooper, and Paddy Pimblett. Slight reach advantage at 71″. Moving down should improve and cardio.
Weaknesses: 30% takedown defense is a glaring liability. Pulling guard exposes him to top pressure and ground-and-pound. Has alternated wins and losses over his last five bouts.
Betting Angles: Leavitt by Decision (+550) is his most realistic path if he survives del Valle’s aggression. Leavitt by Submission (+1000) is a lottery ticket as del Valle’s 75% takedown defense makes it hard to hold the positions Leavitt needs.
Del Valle carries a perfect 10-0 record. He went 2-0 in his UFC debut year with first-round rear-naked choke finishes over Connor Matthews and Isaac Dulgarian.
Strengths: Elite 3.5 submission average with 42% takedown accuracy and 75% takedown defense. Three straight finishes including two UFC stoppages. Heavy top pressure and ground-and-pound create multiple submission entries. Fighting in his adopted hometown adds crowd energy.
Weaknesses: Leavitt’s chaotic scramble style is unlike anything del Valle has faced. A 52% striking defense could be tested early. Competition level remains modest by UFC standards.
Betting Angles: Del Valle by Submission (+280) is our primary value play given his elite grappling metrics. Del Valle by KO/TKO (+170) offers solid value if top pressure produces a stoppage before a clean submission finish.
Del Valle’s 3.5 submission average and 75% takedown defense mean once he’s on top, he stays there. Both UFC finishes came by first-round rear-naked choke. At +280 (implied 26.3%), we project this closer to 40%.
Del Valle has finished all three UFC fights and Leavitt owns four UFC finishes himself. Three full rounds feels unlikely given both men’s finishing tendencies. At -230 (implied 69.7%), this feels like solid value alongside the best bet.
Small stake only. If del Valle dives into a scramble overconfidently, Leavitt can wrap up a choke from seemingly impossible positions. At +1000 (implied 9.1%), keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.
Official Pick: Yadier del Valle by Submission
Del Valle should establish top control early, using ground-and-pound to open submission lanes. Leavitt will pull guard and hunt scrambles, but del Valle’s positional pressure should neutralize the chaos.
We are predicting del Valle winning via rear-naked choke or arm triangle. This will be a statement performance for him and announce him to the featherweight division.
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Odds current as of February 20, 2026.
(Image Credit: Per Haljestam – Imagn Images)
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