UFC 324’s light heavyweight prelim clash features struggling veteran Nikita Krylov taking on surging contender Modestas Bukauskas in a crucial divisional bout. Krylov looks to snap a two-fight losing streak while Bukauskas seeks his 5th straight win to crack the top 15 rankings. This 3-round prelim fight could determine which fighter remains relevant at 205 pounds.
Krylov brings a 30-11 record but enters on the worst run of his career with back-to-back first-round knockouts. Bukauskas enters with a 19-6 record and four straight victories including knockout wins over Raffael Cerqueira and Paul Craig. Bukauskas is around a -150 favorite with Krylov at roughly +125 as the underdog.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC 324: Krylov vs Bukauskas, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC 324 – T-Mobile Arena
Weight class: Light Heavyweight bout
Fight length: 3-round prelim fight
Date & time: Saturday, January 24, 2026 – Prelims 7:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~07;30 p.m. ET
21+. AZ/CO/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA/MD/MA/MI/NJ/OH/PA/TN/ VA/WV/WY only. Offer not available in DC/MS/NV/NY/PR. New customers only. Qualifying deposit (min $10) and first real money wager required. If qualifying bet settles as a loss, user is refunded 100% in non-withdrawable bonus bets up to $1,500. Full T&Cs can be found on betmgm.com.
Odds updated: January 23, 2026 – 7:20 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Krylov vs Bukauskas.
Tale Of The Tape
Nikita Krylov
Modestas Bukauskas
Record
30-11
19-6
Age
33
31
Height
6’3″
6’3″
Reach
77″
76″
Stance
Orthodox
Switch
Sig. Strikes Landed
4.31
3.32
Striking Accuracy
54%
43%
Takedowns
2.17
0.30
Takedown Defense
53%
80%
Submission Avg.
1.4
0.1
Krylov holds advantages in striking volume, accuracy, offensive wrestling, and submission attempts. Bukauskas counters with superior takedown defense. Both are identical in height with minimal reach difference. The stats favor Krylov’s grappling-heavy game, but his recent knockout losses raise major durability questions.
Fighter Breakdown – Nikita Krylov Analysis
Krylov comes in with a 30-11 record but has lost consecutive fights via first-round knockout to Dominick Reyes and Bogdan Guskov. The 33 year old Ukrainian nicknamed is ranked #13 in the light heavyweight division and faces a must-win situation.
Strengths: Dangerous submission game with (16 wins). Elite offensive grappling (2.17 TD/15min) and submission rate. Versatile finisher with guillotine, rear-naked choke, triangle and kimura wins. Strong striking volume when fight stays standing. Usually finishes fights early.
Weaknesses: Knocked out in back-to-back fights for the first time in his career. Poor takedown defense. Striking defense holes exploited in recent losses. Age 33 with significant mileage. Two-year layoff before April return clearly affected performance. Confidence likely shaken after consecutive knockouts.
Betting Angles: Krylov’s +125 moneyline offers value if his grappling neutralizes Bukauskas’ striking. Krylov by Submission (+550) is interesting given his finishing ability. Fight doesn’t go the distance appeals given both men’s finishing rates.
Bukauskas brings a 19-6 record with four straight wins including knockouts over Raffael Cerqueira and Paul Craig, plus a submission of Marcin Prachnio. The 31 year old Lithuanian-British fighter is a former two-time Cage Warriors champion riding his career-best form.
Strengths: Four-time British Kickboxing Champion with elite striking. Recent knockout power surge with 3 finishes in last 4 wins. Excellent takedown defense (80%). Switch stance creates awkward angles. Coming off career year in 2025. Strong elbows in close-range exchanges.
Weaknesses: Has been knocked out three times in UFC career. Durability questions despite recent wins. Wrestling-heavy opponents like Krylov could test his TDD. First time facing elite submission artist. Lower striking volume than top light heavyweights.
Betting Angles: Bukauskas by KO/TKO (+145) is our primary play given Krylov’s chin issues. Bukauskas’ -150 moneyline is reasonable but offers limited value. Fight doesn’t go the distance is heavily favored given both fighters’ finishing tendencies.
Krylov has been knocked out in consecutive first-round fights, showing clear chin deterioration at age 33. Bukauskas has finished three of his last four opponents and brings elite kickboxing credentials. The Lithuanian’s recent knockout power surge, combined with Krylov’s defensive holes, creates a perfect storm.
Bukauskas’ switch stance and elbowing ability in close range should find openings against Krylov’s chin. At +145 (implied 40.8%), we think this hits closer to 50-55%, offering excellent value. Even if Krylov survives early exchanges, Bukauskas’ power carries through all three rounds.
Neither fighter specializes in decisions. Krylov doesn’t go past round 1 much in his 41 combined fights, while Bukauskas has finished opponents in 3 of his last 4 wins. Someone gets stopped here. Both have finishing ability and defensive vulnerabilities that suggest an early end. At -650 (implied 86.7%), we think this finishes around 80% of the time, making it slightly overpriced but still reliable for parlay building.
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Small stake only. If Krylov can get this fight to the ground early, his submission game is elite with 16 career submissions. Bukauskas has never been submitted and has strong takedown defense, but Krylov’s scrambling ability and triangle choke threat could catch him. Keep stakes at 0.25 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Modestas Bukauskas by TKO Round 2
We are backing Bukauskas to stop Krylov in the second round. The Lithuanian’s striking should find success early as Krylov tries mixing in takedown attempts. Krylov’s chin probably will hold in round one but can show damage from accumulated shots. In round two, we see Bukauskas landing a combination or elbow sequence that wobbles Krylov, forcing a referee stoppage.
With this win, Bukauskas will extend his win streak to five and likely earns a ranked opponent next. For Krylov, a third straight knockout loss at age 33 raises serious questions about his future in the UFC.
How to Bet UFC 324: Tips for This Card
Beyond the Krylov-Bukauskas light heavyweight clash, UFC 324 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
Krylov’s back-to-back first-round knockouts make his chin a major liability. Any Krylov bet carries significant risk given recent form.
Derrick Lewis vs Waldo Cortes-Acostais pure finish hunting. Consider “Fight doesn’t go the distance” props heavily
Light heavyweight finishing rates are historically high. Fight doesn’t go the distance props have value across the entire prelim card.
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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