Former UFC flyweight title challenger Alex Perez meets rising finisher Charles Johnson in a crucial flyweight prelim bout at UFC 324. Both fighters enter looking to climb the rankings in the 125-pound division that continues to produce exciting matchups.
Perez brings a 25-10 record but is currently riding a two-fight losing. Johnson enters with an 18-7 record, having won 4 of his last 5 fights. Johnson is the betting favorite at -180 with Perez as the underdog around +150.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC 324: Perez vs Johnson, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC 324 – T-Mobile Arena
Weight class: Flyweight bout (125 lbs)
Fight length: 3-round prelim bout
Date & time: Saturday, January 24, 2026 – Prelims 7:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~ 07:00 p.m. ET
Odds updated: January 23, 2026 – 8:30 AM ET. Lines may shift before fight night, especially after weigh-ins.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before diving into the analysis, here’s the Tale of the Tape for Perez vs Johnson.
Tale Of The Tape
Alex Perez
Charles Johnson
Record
25-10
18-7
Age
33
35
Height
5’6″
5’9″
Reach
65″
70″
Stance
Orthodox
Switch
Sig. Strikes Landed
4.16
4.73
Striking Accuracy
45%
49%
Takedowns
2.28
0.56
Takedown Defense
75%
66%
Submission Avg.
0.8
0.4
Johnson holds a massive 3 inch height advantage and 5 inch reach advantage that he uses effectively from distance. Perez lands 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes with superior 75% takedown defense, while Johnson is the more accurate striker at 49%. The submission averages favor Perez at 0.8 attempts per fight, though Johnson has shown dangerous finishing ability with 3 UFC submission wins.
Fighter Breakdown – Alex Perez Analysis
Perez enters with a 25-10 record including victories over Matheus Nicolau, Jussier Formiga and Jordan Espinosa. The 33 year old former title challenger is currently ranked #11 in the flyweight division but has dropped two straight fights.
Strengths: Strong wrestling base with elite Division I credentials. Powerful boxing with legitimate knockout power. 75% takedown defense keeps fights standing when needed. Aggressive grappling style with dangerous submission game. Scrambling ability makes him hard to control on the mat. Eight submission wins in his career demonstrate finishing ability.
Weaknesses: Currently on a two-fight losing streak with both losses by submission. Recent knee injury against Taira raises durability concerns. Struggles against elite grapplers and submission artists. Has been finished four times by submission in the UFC. Can be outworked by higher-volume strikers.
Betting Angles: Perez by decision (+260) offers value if his wrestling can control Johnson. Perez by KO (+700) is intriguing given Johnson’s 66% takedown defense vulnerability. The underdog moneyline at +154 has merit but recent form is concerning.
Fighter Breakdown – Charles Johnson Analysis
Johnson brings an 18-7 record with impressive recent wins over Joshua Van, Jake Hadley, Azat Maksum and Sumudaerji. The 35 year old is ranked #13 and riding momentum from winning four of his last five fights.
Strengths: Significant height and reach advantage at flyweight with 5’9″ frame. Switch stance creates angles and confusion for opponents. Improving striking accuracy at 49%. Dangerous submission game with 3 UFC submission wins. Knockout power demonstrated against Van and Kavanagh. Former LFA flyweight champion with championship experience.
Weaknesses: 66% takedown defense leaves openings for elite wrestlers like Perez. Can be taken down and controlled by strong grapplers. Inconsistent performances with three-fight losing streak in 2023. Age at 35 raises questions about longevity. Can fade in extended grappling exchanges.
Betting Angles: Johnson by submission (+430 ) is our top play given Perez’s submission vulnerability. Johnson by decision (+180) makes sense if he can avoid takedowns. The moneyline at -180 feels appropriate for the favorite.
This is the most exploitable path to victory. Perez has been submitted four times in the UFC, including in his last fight against Asu Almabayev via guillotine choke. Johnson has shown dangerous submission skills.His 5 inch reach advantage allows Johnson to set up takedowns from distance, and his switch stance creates scrambles where he can hunt for submissions. Perez’s aggressive grappling style often puts him in vulnerable positions when opponents defend, creating submission opportunities. At +430 (implied 19%), we see this hitting closer to 25% of the time.
Both fighters have finishing ability and this matchup creates scrambles that lead to stoppages. Perez has eight submission wins and five knockout victories, while Johnson has shown improved finishing with KOs over Van and Kavanagh plus three submission wins. The grappling exchanges will be high-level and dangerous for both fighters. Johnson’s submission threat combined with Perez’s knockout power creates multiple finish scenarios. At +124 (implied 44.5%), this represents solid value for a finish occurring in either direction.
Small stake only. Johnson has finished fights early when opponents make mistakes. If Perez comes out aggressively looking to pressure early, he could overextend or get caught by a counter strike. Johnson’s switch stance creates early confusion that could lead to a first-round finish. Keep stakes minimal at 0.5 units maximum on this speculative pick.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Charles Johnson by Submission in Round 2-3 (+430)
We’re backing Johnson to exploit Perez’s submission vulnerability. Perez should likely have success early with takedowns and top pressure, but Johnson’s length and submission skills should eventually find an opening. As Perez tires from working for positions, Johnson will threaten from his back and potentially secure a fight-ending submission. We expect Johnson to catch a guillotine choke or rear-naked choke in round 2 or 3 as Perez shoots for takedowns.
The massive reach advantage combined with Perez’s recent submission losses makes this Johnson’s fight to win on the ground. While Perez’s wrestling keeps this dangerous, Johnson’s well-rounded game and recent momentum should carry him to victory and keep him climbing the flyweight rankings.
How to Bet UFC 324: Tips for This Card
Beyond the Perez vs Johnson bout, UFC 324 features several compelling matchups worth betting consideration.
Card Tips:
Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett main event offers massive upset potential with Gaethje at +190.
Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong co-main features O’Malley looking to rebound from two straight losses.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo is heavily juiced with Nurmagomedov at -1600.
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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