UFC Atlanta on June 14, 2025, brings a compelling light heavyweight prelim fight to State Farm Arena, featuring two fighters with very contrasting paths. Paul Craig is known as a submission savant with a knack for snatching victories through making his opponents tap, takes on Rodolfo Bellato, a rising Brazilian who is known for his punishing striking ability. This UFC Fight Night Clash, part of the Usman vs. Buckley card, sets the stage for a high-stake action between a seasoned veteran and a hungry prospect looking to make a statement.
On June 14, Paul Craig faces Rodolfo Bellato in a critical light heavyweight prelim bout at State Farm Arena. Craig (17-9-1), a submission maestro, returns to 205 pounds after a 1-3 middleweight stint, with losses to Bo Nickal, Caio Borralho, and Brendan Allan. His 13 submission wins, including upsets over Jamahal Hill and Magomed Ankalaev, highlight his ground threat, averaging 1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes. For now, Craig aims to stop the bleeding and snap a three-fight skid.
Meanwhile, Bellato (12-2-1), a 29-year old Brazilian, remains unbeaten in the UFC, with a TKO win over Ihor Potieria and a draw against Jimmy Crute. His 6.28 significant strikes per minute at 62% accuracy outpaces Craig’s 2.52 at 44%. Bellato is also an excellent defender when it comes to takedowns with 85%, which may force Craig to keep him standing, favoring Bellato’s power. It’s a crossroads between an excellent striker vs. an excellent grappler.
According to BetMGM, Rodolfo Bellato is the heavy -425 favorite to win the fight against the +325 underdog Paul Craig. This means that if you beat $425 on Bellato, you will get a return of $100, if he wins. Whereas, if Craig pulls off an upset, a $100 bet would mean $325 in return.
Rodolfo Bellato is the favorite to win the fight against Paul Craig at UFC Atlanta. Bellato’s superior striking (6.28 significant strikes per minute at 62% accuracy) should overwhelm Craig, who lands just 2.52 at 44%. Bellato’s takedown defense, as mentioned earlier, is also very high which will likely neutralize Craig’s grappling. Craig’s recent skid with a 1-3 record, including getting finished two times, exposes his vulnerability against power punchers like Bellato, who’s currently unbeaten in the UFC.
While Craig’s submission threat still looms, but Bellato’s youth and momentum suggest a stand-up dominance.
Official Pick: Bellato via KO/TKO
nfl
