The countdown for the NFL Divisional round games has begun, and in this article, we will take a look at the New England Patriots taking on the Houston Texans in the first game on Sunday.
The Patriots, with the number 2 seed in the AFC, will have the home-field advantage once again in the upcoming matchup. Head coach Mike Vrabel has turned this Patriots team around in his first season in charge, and they are coming off a gritty win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round.
The Texans, on the other hand, are coming off a defensive demolition of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the previous round of the playoffs. The Texans’ defense will be the key again on Sunday as C.J. Stroud and the offense continue to struggle this season.
Best Bet for New England Patriots vs Houston Texans
For the best bet in the New England Patriots vs Houston Texans game, we believe that Patriots quarterback Drake Maye’s Under 1.5 passing touchdowns is a safe bet.
Although Maye has thrown for 31 touchdowns in the regular season and had one more against the Chargers in the Wild Card round, the second-year signal caller has struggled against teams with a strong defense.
Coming to the Texans’ defense, it has been performing at an elite level throughout the season, with pass rush duo Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. leading the way. Houston ranks second in the league in scoring defense, allowing just 17.4 points per game, while its secondary has allowed just 20 touchdowns through the air in 17 regular season games.
Last week’s Wild Card game against Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers proved the same as the Texans’ defense allowed just 2 field goals, while scoring off an interception and a fumble.
Our first pick in this three-leg parlay is Patriots’ wide receiver Stefon Diggs Under 4.5 receptions. We feel good about this bet due to the Texans’ overall pass defense strength as well as Diggs’ recent performances. In the last couple of games, the wideout has hauled in just 5 catches in total, while being targeted 8 times.
Additionally, Houston’s defense has ranked near the upper tier in most categories, and that includes an opposition completion rate of just 59.3%, good for third in the league. The Texans’ secondary ranked first in the league with a total of 90 passes defended, which includes breakups, interceptions, and other disruption plays.
Texans’ wide receiver Christian Kirk is expected to play a major role in the game against the Patriots on Sunday. C.J. Stroud’s go-to player and the team’s WR1, Nico Collins, will almost certainly miss the Divisional round as he remains in concussion protocol.
With Collins out, the bulk of the offensive threat is expected to run through Kirk, as was the case last week. The former Jaguars’ receiver was targeted 9 times against the Steelers, and he managed to make 8 receptions for 144 yards and a touchdown.
The fact that Houston has arguably the best duo up front in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter is an understatement. These two players combined for 27 of the team’s 47 sacks this season, with Hunter getting 15 of them.
The pair was dynamic on the field once again in the previous round of the postseason, applying immense pressure on Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense. Hunter finished the game with one more sack. We expect him to continue his dominance on Sunday against New England.
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Patriots vs Texans Game Predictions by Market
Here is a look at the line, spread, and points Over/Under for the Patriots vs Texans Divisional round game, as per FanDuel.
Moneyline Prediction
The moneyline for this game is slightly in favor of the Patriots (-178) and we believe that is how the outcome of this game will play out. The Patriots have a distinct advantage of playing at home in temperatures starting at 35 degrees with the chance of snow. Moreover, with Nico Collins not playing, the Texans’ offense may struggle further.
Spread Prediction
As per the latest odds, the Patriots are favored by a field goal. This game should be a tightly contested one and a close game is expected. That being said, we believe the weather conditions and the Texans’ lack of offensive prowess should see New England cover the spread.
Over/Under (Total) Prediction
The Over/Under for the Patriots vs Texans Divisional round game is set at 40.5. Both teams are among the better teams in the league defensively. The Texans have an elite defense that has given up just 17.4 points per game, whereas the Patriots have allowed just under 19 a game.
Both teams are also coming off impressive defensive performances from the Wild Card round. The Patriots held the Chargers to just 3 points, and the Texans held the Steelers to just 6 points. Once again, the weather may lead to struggles in putting up too many points, so we are taking the Under in this game.
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Trends to Know for Patriots vs Texans
The Patriots are 5-2-1 ATS at home this year.
New England is 8-4-1 ATS against all conference teams this season.
The Patriots have a 5-3 Over record in home games.
The Texans have a 2-7 Over record in away games.
Houston is 6-3 on the road this season.
The Texans are 3-3 ATS as an away team.
Latest Injuries for Patriots vs Texans
As per the latest injury reports on Thursday, January 15, the Patriots seem to be the healthier team. The Texans are set to miss the wide receiver duo of Nico Collins and Justin Watson due to concussion protocol. Here are the main injury concerns for both teams.
Player
Team
Position
Injury
Practice status
Christian Gonzalez
Patriots
CB
Concussion Protocol
FP
Terrell Jennings
Patriots
RB
Concussion Protocol
FP
Denico Autry
Texans
DT
Knee
DNP
Trent Brown
Texans
OT
Knee
DNP
Nico Collins
Texans
WR
Concussion
DNP
Justin Watson
Texans
WR
Concussion
DNP
*Note: FP – Full Participant, LP – Limited Participant, DNP – Did Not Practice
Weather Report for Patriots vs Texans
The weather report for Sunday’s game between the Patriots and the Texans calls for temperatures in the low 30s for the duration of the game. Wild chill is expected to be as low as 24°F. Moreover, the afternoon is likely to see snowfall mainly after 1 p.m. ET.
What time is the Patriots vs Texans Divisional Game?
The first Divisional round game on Sunday between the Patriots and the Texans is set for a 3:00 p.m. ET kickoff time.
Where is the Patriots vs Texans game being played?
This game between the New England Patriots and Houston Texans will be played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, home of the Patriots.
How can I watch the Patriots vs Texans?
This Divisional matchup between the Patriots and the Texans will be telecast on ESPN and locally in the Houston and Boston regions on ABC. Live streaming of the game will be available via services like Fubo, DirecTV, Hulu + Live TV, or NFL+ (mobile), YouTube TV (out-of-market), Patriots/Texans apps.
The above odds are sourced from FanDuel. Use FanDuel to ace your betting game in all sports!
I am a content writer for the NFL team, and joined The Playoffs after working with Sportskeeda and NFL Analysis as an NFL writer. After starting my professional career as a French-to-English translator, working as a content writer is a new adventure for me. I started out in the sports media field for two main reasons: my love for sports in general, especially the NFL, NBA, and Tennis, as well as my passion for writing. The best part of this job is that I get to write a variety of pieces with the freedom to explore content from various angles. It also enables me to stay up to date with the sporting world, which otherwise can be difficult to do in the day-to-day grind. In a world full of chaos, sports unite and entertain like nothing else!
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