Can the Serb find his form on clay ahead of Roland Garros?
The number 2 seed and the number 8 seed at the 2025 Geneva Open, Novak Djokovic and Matteo Arnaldi respectively, are set to lock horns once again this year following their clash in Madrid. On the line is a spot in the semi-final against the winner of Alexei Popyrin and Cameron Norrie.
Heading into this match against the Italian youngster Arnaldi, number 2 seed Novak Djokovic has been struggling to get back to his best. This is a different type of player that we have been accustomed to seeing, as injuries and perhaps age have started to take their toll on the Serb.
Despite reaching the final in Miami and a run to the semis at the start of the year in the Australian Open, Djokovic has yet to claim a title this year. Moreover, the clay-court season has been forgiving for the 24-time Grand Slam winner as he was ousted in his first match at the Monte Carlo Masters as well as the Madrid Masters.
Deciding to skip the Italian Open, the Serb will now hope for a renewed performance in Geneva ahead of the all-important French Open.
As for Arnaldi, it has been a so-so year with a couple of deep runs, including a semi-final appearance at the Delray Beach Open and a quarter-final showing in Madrid, but overall, he too hasn’t been exciting on clay.
Novak Djokovic and Matteo Arnaldi have faced off against one another only once prior to their match today. The pair met at this year’s Madrid Open in a round of 64 clash which went the way of the Italian, who earned a straight sets victory.
However, it would not be wise to read too much into that match as Djokovic was clearly struggling with form. It will be interesting to see where the Serb’s game is at, in their match today.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | ATP Masters 1000 Madrid | Round of 64 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-3, 6-4 |
There is not much of a comparison between the two. On the one hand, Djokovic is one of the greatest players in the history of the sport if not the greatest ever, while Arnaldi is a young and upcoming player.
| Novak Djokovic | Category | Matteo Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ranking | 39 |
| 1136-229 | Career W-L | 60-55 |
| 12-7 | YTD W-L | 12-11 |
| 99 | Career Titles | 0 |
| 24 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 0 | YTD Titles | 0 |
If this match were any other day, when Djokovic was in peak form, this would be a non-contest. However, the Serb is clearly not at his best and there are weaknesses in his game to exploit.
His first serve percentage is down from 68% on all surfaces this year to just 58% on clay. Similarly, his break point save percentage on all surfaces has dropped from 62% to 45 %, while his ability to break his opponent’s serve is down from 42% to just 25%.
Arnaldi, meanwhile, has saved 64% of the break points he has faced on clay while converting on 41%, but his first serve percentage is just 54%. The Italian can take heart from his earlier win against Djokovic and hope that the Serb’s game hasn’t improved much since then.
Prediction: Djokovic in straight sets
The betting odds are heavily in favor of the Serbian, who should come through with an easy win if he gets into his rhythm. Djokovic’s superb defensive skills and baseline play are no match for the Italian once he gets going.
Novak Djokovic Win: 8/25
Matteo Arnaldi Win: 12/5
(According to BetMGM)
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