Gauff rides finals streak; Keys hopes to reignite Grand Slam form.
The 7th seed, Madison Keys, faces 2nd seed Coco Gauff today in a high-stakes Roland Garros quarterfinal. Keys has cruised through rounds, beating Daria Saville, Katie Boulter, and Hailey Baptiste in straight sets. Though she stumbled against Sofia Kenin in the third round, she had a strong comeback for the win.
Meanwhile, Gauff has been flawless, defeating Olivia Gadecki, Tereza Valentova, Marie Bouzkova, and Ekaterina Alexandrova without dropping a set, signaling her confidence and peak form. Neither player has yet matched their best Roland Garros runs. Keys reached the semifinals in 2018, while Gauff was a finalist in 2022. As they meet for this crucial clash, both are hungry to make deeper inroads at the French Open and get a shot at the trophy.
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Keys opened 2025 strong with a quarterfinal in Auckland, a runner-up finish in Adelaide, and a title at the Australian Open. She backed it up with a semi-final in Indian Wells but lost momentum with early exits in Miami and Charleston. A quarterfinal in Madrid offered hope, though a quick exit in Rome reset expectations. Still, her pre-Roland Garros stats were solid: 139 aces, 74.8% service games won, 45.1% return points won, and a 45% break point conversion rate.
Gauff showed steady form all season, starting with a Melbourne quarterfinal and peaking in spring. After early exits leading up to a last-16 finish in Miami, she surged with quarterfinals in Stuttgart and finals in Madrid and Rome, entering Roland Garros on a hot streak. She has racked up 104 aces, winning 71.1% of service games and 43.8% of return points. Notably, she leads with a 53% break point conversion rate.
Madison Keys currently holds a slim edge over Coco Gauff in their head-to-head rivalry, 3-2. Their saga kicked off in 2022 at Adelaide, where Keys upset Gauff after dropping the first set. Gauff quickly bounced back, cruising through their next two matches at the 2022 US Open and 2023 Dubai in straight sets.
But Keys wasn’t done. She leveled the score at 2-2 with a commanding, straight-sets win in the 2023 Eastbourne semifinals. Most recently, at the 2024 Madrid Open, Keys pulled ahead once again, rallying from a set down to claim victory.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Madrid | Round of 16 | Madison Keys | 7-6, 4-6, 6-4 |
| 2023 | Eastbourne | Semifinals | Madison Keys | 6-3, 6-3 |
| 2023 | Dubai | Quarterfinals | Coco Gauff | 6-2, 7-5 |
| 2022 | US Open | Round of 32 | Coco Gauff | 6-2, 6-3 |
| 2022 | Adelaide | Semifinals | Madison Keys | 3-6, 6-2, 7-5 |
| Madison Keys | Category | Coco Gauff |
| 8 | Ranking | 2 |
| 408-225 | Career W-L | 253-107 |
| 24-6 | YTD W-L | 24-8 |
| 10 | Career Titles | 9 |
| 1 | Grand Slams | 1 |
| 2 | YTD Titles | 0 |
Keys has beaten Gauff before and has the firepower to do it again, but her post-AO inconsistency raises questions. Gauff, on the other hand, has built up steady momentum during the clay swing and looks sharp in all areas. Expect a close battle, but Gauff’s balance and recent rhythm make her the slight favorite.
Prediction: Coco Gauff in straight sets
Gauff enters the quarterfinal with momentum on her side, having reached back-to-back finals in Madrid and Rome and now without dropping a set in Paris. Her superior return game and break point conversion (53%) could prove decisive against Keys’ aggressive but sometimes streaky play. While Keys leads their head-to-head 3-2, Gauff’s recent form and steadiness on clay make her the favorite.
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Madison Keys: 17/10
Coco Gauff: 12/25
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