In-Form Paolini Faces Tricky Jabeur in Berlin Second-Round Clash
Fourth seed Jasmine Paolini is set to open her Berlin Open campaign against lucky loser Ons Jabeur in the second round. As one of the top seeds, the Italian received a first-round bye, while Jabeur, who fell to Xinyu Wang in a three-set qualifying battle, earned a second chance in the main draw as a lucky loser. The Tunisian made the most of it, upsetting Caroline Dolehide in straight sets, with a tight tiebreak in the opener.
Now, Paolini faces a seasoned opponent in Jabeur, who’s still working her way back to top form in an challenging season.
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Paolini had a slow start to the season but turned things around with semifinal runs in Miami and Stuttgart. After a second-round loss in Madrid, she stormed back to win the Rome title, beating Coco Gauff, Peyton Stearns, and Diana Shnaider. She also claimed the doubles title there with Sara Errani, a feat the pair repeated at Roland Garros, winning the French Open doubles final in straight sets.
In 34 matches this season, Paolini has hit 45 aces, winning 61% on her first serve, 47.3% of return points, and converting 51.8% of her break points.
Jabeur’s season has been a rollercoaster, with promising starts followed by setbacks. She reached the quarterfinals in Brisbane, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai but hasn’t made it past the second round in recent outings and suffered a first-round exit at Roland Garros. Health concerns, including asthma-related breathing issues in Melbourne and a leg strain in Rome, have hampered her momentum as the season unfolded.
Across 23 matches, Jabeur has 61 aces, a 65.4% first-serve win rate, 43.3% return points won, and 47.5% break-point conversion.
Jasmine Paolini leads her head-to-head against Ons Jabeur 3-2. Now, they meet for the sixth time, with Paolini looking to stay in control and Jabeur hoping to even the score. Their rivalry began in 2022 in Madrid, where Jabeur claimed a straight-sets win, followed by another in Eastbourne in 2023. But in 2024, Paolini flipped the script with a dominant win of her own in Stuttgart.
They’ve already crossed paths twice this year. In Miami, Jabeur was forced to retire mid-match due to a leg strain, handing Paolini a walkover. Then came Rome, where the Italian posted another straight-sets win to edge ahead in their rivalry. That incomplete Miami match leaves a question mark, one that might’ve tilted the balance.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Rome | Round of 32 | Jasmine Paolini | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 2025 | Miami | Round of 32 | Jasmine Paolini | 4-3 (retired) |
| 2024 | Stuttgart | Round of 16 | Jasmine Paolini | 7-6(6), 6-4 |
| 2023 | Eastbourne | Round of 32 | Ons Jabeur | 6-3, 6-2 |
| 2022 | Madrid | Round of 64 | Ons Jabeur | 7-6(7), 6-1 |
| Jasmine Paolini | Category | Ons Jabeur |
| 5 | Current Ranking | 61 |
| 411-279 | Career W-L | 457-257 |
| 25-9 | YTD W-L | 12-11 |
| 3 | Career Titles | 5 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 1 | YTD Titles | 0 |
With a 3-2 head-to-head lead and far stronger recent form, Jasmine Paolini enters this clash with confidence. Her rise this season, highlighted by deep runs in Miami and Stuttgart and titles in Rome and Paris, shows she’s peaking at the right time. Jabeur, meanwhile, is still searching for rhythm amid fitness struggles. As it seems, Paolini is the slight favorite to edge through.
Prediction: Jasmine Paolini in straight sets
Paolini enters as the favorite at 13/20, reflecting her recent form and head-to-head advantage. Jabeur, a 5/4 underdog, still poses a threat with her flair and experience, but her inconsistency and recent injury concerns tip the scales.
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Jasmine Paolini: 13/20
Ons Jabeur: 5/4
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