Sabalenka is the top seed in Rome.
After the shock exit of Iga Swiatek from the 2025 Italian Open in Rome, World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will have her eyes on the prize. She faces former Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin in a heated Super Sunday tussle – with a spot in the Round of 16 on the line. Only one queen of Melbourne can continue their journey at the Italian capital after this upcoming slugfest.
Aryna Sabalenka and Sofia Kenin are two strong baseliners. However, the Belarusian has managed to develop an all-round game over time, while the American has struggled with consistency. Sabalenka defeated Anastasia Potapova in Round-2, and has a 10-1 record on clay this year. With a break point conversion rate of 51.4% before Rome, the three-time Grand Slam champion ranks within the Top-10 in the WTA. She will look to put Kenin’s serve under pressure on Sunday.
Although she is yet to win a trophy in 2025, Sofia Kenin’s clay court swing got off to a rollicking start when she reached the final in Charleston. The American has a 74% service game win percentage on this surface, and backs it up with flat groundstrokes. In the recently concluded Madrid Open, the 26-year-old fell prey to Potapova – whom Sabalenka conquered in Round-2 here in Rome.
Aryna Sabalenka has a 3-1 record against Sofia Kenin. Their last meeting was in 2023.
Sabalenka and Kenin have met thrice on Chinese shores, with the current World No. 1 emerging victorious on all occasions. Kenin’s solitary victory was coincidentally at this very tournament – two years ago. She beat the then No. 2 seed in straight sets to advance to the next round. As a result, the clay court head to head goes in favour of the lower ranked American thus far.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2023 Beijing | Round-1 | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2023 Rome | Round-2 | Sofia Kenin | 7-6(4) 6-2 |
| 2018 Tianjin | Round-1 | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-6(4) 4-6 6-0 |
| 2018 Wuhan | Round-3 | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-3 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | Category | Sofia Kenin |
| 3 | Grand Slams | 1 |
| 20 | WTA Singles Titles | 5 |
| 6 | WTA Doubles Titles | 4 |
| 9 | WTA-1000 Titles | 1 |
| R2 (Tokyo 2020) | Olympics Best Performance | – |
| No. 1 | Current World Ranking | No. 31 |
One of the tactics Kenin could potentially adopt is the down the line drop shot. The American has been increasingly using this weapon to dismantle her opponents. However, resorting to a drop requires one to be in charge of the rally – something that seldom happens when Sabalenka is on the other side of the net. The World No. 1 will give Kenin no breathing space while returning, and is likely to deliver the knockout punch.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets.
Sabalenka starts as the firm favourite with 85% chance to grab a win. The markets are subject to change, but they are unlikely to tilt in favour of her American counterpart. A 2-0 Sabalenka victory seems to be the most common bet for success.
Aryna Sabalenka Win: -700
Sofia Kenin Win: +450
(According to Dimers Pro)
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