Powerhouses collide as Sabalenka and Rybakina renew their rivalry on Berlin grass
Top seed Aryna Sabalenka will face unseeded Elena Rybakina in a blockbuster quarterfinal at the Berlin Open. After receiving a first-round bye, Sabalenka eased past qualifier Rebeka Masarova in straight sets, sealing the win with a second-set tiebreak.
Rybakina, meanwhile, has looked sharp throughout the week. She dispatched lucky loser Ashlyn Krueger and qualifier Katerina Siniakova in straight sets, needing tiebreaks to close out both second sets. With both players in clean form, this quarterfinal promises fireworks.
World No. 1 Sabalenka has been a pillar of consistency this season, racking up titles in Brisbane, Miami, and Madrid. She’s also made deep runs across the biggest events, finishing runner-up at the Australian Open, Indian Wells, Stuttgart, and Roland Garros, where she narrowly lost to Coco Gauff in a three-set thriller. Her season resume is one of the most complete on tour.
Backing it up are standout stats: 156 aces, 67.4% first-serve points won, 48% return points won, and an impressive 49.4% break-point conversion over 47 matches.
Rybakina, meanwhile, started the year strong with semifinal finishes in Abu Dhabi and Dubai and a quarterfinal in Doha. Though she hit a mid-season lull, she found her form again in Strasbourg, lifting the title with a gritty win over Liudmila Samsonova. Her Roland Garros run ended in the fourth round, but she followed it with a quarterfinal showing in London.
Statistically, she’s served big, tallying 210 aces, a 72.9% first-serve win rate, 36.5% return points won, and a 40.5% break conversion rate, highlighting her dangerous all-court presence.
Aryna Sabalenka leads Elena Rybakina 6-4 in their head-to-head, with most of her wins coming in the earlier stages of their rivalry. She claimed key victories at the 2023 Australian Open final, 2023 WTA Finals, Wimbledon 2021, and Abu Dhabi 2021, often overpowering Rybakina with her aggressive baseline game. Sabalenka’s edge was clear in their first five meetings, winning four of them, including her breakthrough Grand Slam in Melbourne.
But the tide has started to turn. Since her dominant win in the 2023 Indian Wells final, Rybakina has taken three of their last five matchups, including a straight-sets victory in Brisbane and a confident three-setter at the 2024 WTA Finals in Saudi Arabia. Once chasing, the Kazakh now seems to have cracked the Sabalenka code, adding more intrigue to an already electric rivalry.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | WTA Finals | Round 1 | Elena Rybakina | 6–4, 3–6, 6–1 |
| 2024 | Madrid | Semifinals | Aryna Sabalenka | 1–6, 7–5, 7–6(5) |
| 2024 | Brisbane | Final | Elena Rybakina | 6–0, 6–3 |
| 2023 | WTA Finals | Round 1 | Aryna Sabalenka | 6–2, 3–6, 6–3 |
| 2023 | Beijing | Quarterfinals | Elena Rybakina | 7–5, 6–2 |
| 2023 | Indian Wells | Final | Elena Rybakina | 7–6(11), 6–4 |
| 2023 | Australian Open | Final | Aryna Sabalenka | 4–6, 6–3, 6–4 |
| 2021 | Wimbledon | Round of 16 | Aryna Sabalenka | 6–3, 4–6, 6–3 |
| 2021 | Abu Dhabi | Quarterfinals | Aryna Sabalenka | 6–4, 4–6, 6–3 |
| 2019 | Wuhan | Quarterfinals | Aryna Sabalenka | 6–3, 1–6, 6–1 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | Category | Elena Rybakina |
| 1 | Current Ranking | 11 |
| 456-195 | Career W-L | 358-154 |
| 40-7 | YTD W-L | 27-11 |
| 20 | Career Titles | 9 |
| 3 | Grand Slams | 1 |
| 3 | YTD Titles | 1 |
While both players are in strong form, Sabalenka’s consistency at the biggest events and her superior return stats give her the edge.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets
Sabalenka enters as the slight favorite at 16/25, with Rybakina at 5/4. The narrow gap reflects their recent battles and evenly matched stats, but the odds lean toward the world No. 1 maintaining her dominance further.
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Aryna Sabalenka: 16/25
Elena Rybakina: 5/4
Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):
Total Games Over 22.5: 17/20
Total Games Under 22.5: 10/11
Total Games won by Sabalenka Over 12.5: 4/5
Total Games won by Rybakina Over 12.5: 27/25
Total Sets Over 2.5: 5/4
Total Sets Under 2.5: 8/13
(All Odds According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
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