Rune’s firepower meets Bautista Agut’s spirit in grass-court quarterfinal
Fourth seed Holger Rune is set to meet Roberto Bautista Agut in the quarterfinals of the Queen’s Club Championships. Rune made a confident start, easing past lucky loser Christopher O’Connell in straight sets before coming from behind to defeat qualifier Mackenzie McDonald.
Bautista Agut, unseeded but determined, has battled through back-to-back three-setters, first against Nuno Borges and then against eighth seed Jakub Mensik. With both players showing grit on grass, this quarterfinal might be a tight contest, but their seasons so far tell a different story.
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Rune’s season has been a mix of highs and inconsistency. After a fourth-round showing in Melbourne, he reached the finals in Indian Wells and won in Barcelona. Yet, outside of those deep runs, he hasn’t moved past the Round of 16. Statistically, Rune has delivered 106 aces, won 70% of first-serve points, and converted 41% of 218 break-point chances.
Bautista, on the other hand, has had a more modest year. His best results include Round of 16 appearances in Dubai and Bucharest and a quarterfinal appearance in Hamburg, where he was stopped by Fabio Cobolli. The rest of his season has been scattered with early exits. So far, he’s hit 39 aces, won 66% of first-serve points, 27% on return, and converted 45% of 111 break-point opportunities.
Holger Rune holds a dominant 3-0 record over Roberto Bautista Agut, having won all their encounters so far. Their rivalry began in the 2022 Basel semifinals, where Rune edged through in straight sets, with both sets decided by tiebreaks.
They met again at the 2024 National Bank Open in Canada, where Rune secured a three-set win. Most recently, at the Roland Garros, Rune came from a set down to defeat Bautista Agut in the opening round.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Roland Garros | Round of 128 | Holger Rune | 7-6(4), 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 |
| 2024 | Canada | Round of 64 | Holger Rune | 6-2, 3-6, 6-2 |
| 2022 | Basel | Semifinal | Holger Rune | 7-6(1), 7-6(6) |
| Holger Rune | Category | Roberto Bautista Agut |
| 9 | Current Ranking | 51 |
| 159-97 | Career W-L | 424-282 |
| 20-12 | YTD W-L | 7-15 |
| 5 | Career Titles | 0 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 12 |
| 1 | YTD Titles | 0 |
Rune may have had an uneven season, but his peak level, evident in his Barcelona title run, far outshines Bautista Agut’s modest results. With a 3-0 head-to-head and a stronger overall game, the Dane is favored to extend his dominance.
Prediction: Holger Rune in straight sets
Rune enters as the clear favorite at 33/100, while Bautista Agut stands at 47/20. The odds reflect Rune’s superior recent form and perfect head-to-head record, pointing to a likely win for the Danish star.
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Holger Rune: 33/100
Roberto Bautista Agut: 47/20
Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):
Total Games Over 22.5: 17/20
Total Games Under 22.5: 10/11
Total Games won by Rune Over 12.5: 3/5
Total Games won by Bautista Over 11.5: 17/20
Total Sets Over 2.5: 7/5
Total Sets Under 2.5: 11/20
(All Odds According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
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