The world No. 1 was beaten by Vondrousova in the most recent meeting at Porsche Tennis Grand Prix last year.
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will be in action for the WTA Berlin Open 2025 semifinal as she takes on Marketa Vondrousova of Czech Republic. The Belarusian ace saved four match points to defeat Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals, while Vondrousova got better of Ons Jabeur in straight sets to reach the top four.
Aryna Sabalenka proved in the quarterfinals why she is the No. 1 tennis player. The Belarusian ace came back from 2-6 down in the 3rd set tiebreak and saved four straight match points to overcome Elena Rybakina 7-6(6), 3-6, 7-6(6) to reach the semifinals in Berlin. She has been outstanding throughout the season with a 42-7 record. She reached the finals of two Grand Slam events this year and won three WTA titles. Before entering the Berlin Open, she had a 2-4 run in the competition but now, she is one more win away to play maiden German Open final. Her grass-court semifinal record stands at 2-2 which is a concern for a No. 1 player.
Marketa Vondrousova came through a dominating run in the Berlin Open and beat top-ranked players, Keys, Shnaider, and Jabeur. During her semifinal run, the former world No. 6 didn’t drop a single set. Before this event, she had a 6-5 record in 2025 and now, won three straight games. She saved four break points against Jabeur in the quarterfinals. The Czech Republican ace knows how to dominate grass court as she won the 2023 Wimbledon. She is playing her second grass-court semifinals.
Aryna Sabalenka holds the 4-3 lead over Marketa Vondrousova in the WTA H2H meetings. The world No. 1 was beaten by Vondrousova in the most recent meeting at Porsche Tennis Grand Prix last year which was the first victory for the Czech Republican ace after four straight defeats.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix – Stuttgart | Quarterfinals | Marketa Vondrousova | 3–6, 6–3, 7-5 |
| 2023 | Adelaide International 1 – Adelaide | Quarterfinals | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 2022 | Australian Open – Melbourne | Third Round | Aryna Sabalenka | 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 |
| 2021 | Miami Open | Fourth Round | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 2018 | Ricoh Open – ‘s-Hertogenbosch | First Round | Aryna Sabalenka | 0-6, 7-5, 6-3 |
| 2018 | BNP Paribas Open – Indian Wells | Third Round | Marketa Vondrousova | 6-2, 6-2 |
| 2017 | Swiss Women’s Championship – Biel | Qualifiers | Marketa Vondrousova | 2-6, 6-2, 6-1 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | Category | Marketa Vondrousova |
| 1 | Current Ranking | 165 |
| 456-195 | Career W-L | 280-125 |
| 40-7 | YTD W-L | 9-5 |
| 20 | Career Titles | 2 |
| 3 | Grand Slams | 1 |
| 3 | YTD Titles | 0 |
Both players are unbeaten on the grass-court this season and the matchup will be toughest for Sabalenka, who looked mentally down in the Berlin Open. However, the Belarusian showed her class in the quarterfinals by saving four match points against Rybakina. Vondrousova has beaten higher-ranked players in her semifinal journey and the 2023 Wimbledon champion has a potential to cause one more upset. The grass-court ability gives a slight edge to Vondrousova but Sabalenka will find a way to reach the finals.
Prediction: Sabalenka to win in three sets.
Sabalenka enters as the slight favorite at -250, with Marketa Vondrousova at +200. Both players are look like the potential winners of this competition. Vondrousova can stretch the match into the final set but the but the odds lean toward Sabalenka maintaining her dominance further. The world No. 1 is likely to reach her eighth final of the year.
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Aryna Sabalenka: -250
Marketa Vondrousova : +200
Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):
Aryna Sabalenka: 11/27
Elena Rybakina: 5/4
Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):
Total Games Over 22.5: 17/20
Total Games Under 22.5: 10/11
Total Games won by Sabalenka Over 12.5: 3/8
Total Games won by Vondrousova Over 12.5: 22/15
Total Sets Over 2.5: 7/4
Total Sets Under 2.5: 8/13
(All Odds According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
